Background: Dietary patterns may predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk more accurately than does consumption of specific nutrients or foods.

Objective: We evaluated the association between Mexican adults' dietary patterns and development of a >10% risk of 10-y CVD (using the Framingham risk score) over 7 y of follow-up.

Methods: This prospective cohort study included 1196 men and women aged 20-80 y with a 10-y predicted risk <10% and without a CVD diagnosis at baseline in 2004-2007. Data on sociodemographic, lifestyle, and medical history factors were collected with a self-administered questionnaire. Dietary intake was evaluated by using a semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire. The relations between dietary patterns and predicted CVD were analyzed by using pooled logistic regression models.

Results: With the use of factor analysis, we identified 3 major dietary patterns in participants' dietary data. The "prudent" pattern was characterized by high positive loadings for the consumption of fresh fruit, vegetables, and whole grains. The "meat/fish" pattern showed positive loadings for the consumption of red meat, processed meat, eggs, fats, fish, and poultry. Finally, the "refined foods" pattern featured positive loadings for corn tortillas, refined grains, soft drinks, and alcohol. After adjustment for potential confounders, compared with participants in the lowest quintile of the prudent pattern, those in the highest quintile had a lower RR of 10-y CVD (RR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.79; P-trend = 0.006). In contrast, participants in the highest quintile of the refined-foods pattern had a greater risk of elevated 10-y CVD (RR: 2.98; 95% CI: 1.46, 6.10; P-trend = 0.020) than did those in the lowest quintile. Finally, the meat/fish dietary pattern was not significantly associated with 10-y CVD.

Conclusion: Our data suggest that the prudent pattern is associated with a reduced risk of 10-y CVD, whereas the refined-foods pattern may increase 10-y CVD in Mexican adults.