Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y

. 2019 Oct 11;10(1):4640.

doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y.

Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change

Qian Yin¹, Jinfeng Wang^{2

3}, Zhoupeng Ren¹, Jie Li⁴, Yuming Guo^{5

6}

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China. wangjf@lreis.ac.cn.
³ University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, A19, Yuquan Road, Shijingshan District, Beijing, China. wangjf@lreis.ac.cn.
⁴ School of Resources and Environment, Ningxia University, No.489, Helanshan Road, Xixia District, Yinchuan, Ningxia, China.
⁵ School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁶ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No.100 Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.

PMID: 31604931
PMCID: PMC6789034
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y

Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change

Qian Yin et al. Nat Commun. 2019.

. 2019 Oct 11;10(1):4640.

doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y.

Authors

Qian Yin¹, Jinfeng Wang^{2

3}, Zhoupeng Ren¹, Jie Li⁴, Yuming Guo^{5

6}

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China. wangjf@lreis.ac.cn.
³ University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, A19, Yuquan Road, Shijingshan District, Beijing, China. wangjf@lreis.ac.cn.
⁴ School of Resources and Environment, Ningxia University, No.489, Helanshan Road, Xixia District, Yinchuan, Ningxia, China.
⁵ School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁶ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No.100 Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.

PMID: 31604931
PMCID: PMC6789034
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y

Abstract

Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

**Fig. 1**
Overview of minimum mortality temperature (MMT) samples. MMTs in 420 locations are shown. From low latitude to high latitude, MMT tends to decrease gradually. Among these 420 locations, the highest and lowest MMTs are 32 °C and 12 °C, respectively

**Fig. 2**
Error histograms for three temperature indicators as MMT. a–c Respectively show the error distributions of MFT as MMT, the 78^th percentile temperature as MMT, and annual mean temperature as MMT. By comparing the errors of using three temperature indicators to represent MMT, MFT is proved to be a better indicator. a Using MFT as the surrogate for MMT, the locations with an error of less than 1 °C account for a proportion of 71%, which is much higher than using the 78^th percentile temperature (44%, b) and the annual mean temperature (13%, c) to represent MMT

**Fig. 3**
Correlations of MFT, the 78th percentile temperature, annual mean temperature and MMT for three climatic zones. a–c for tropical zone. d–f for temperate zone. g–i for subtropical zone. The fitting lines and performances are shown in the figures. MFT is proved to be the best indicator of MMT, particularly in tropical (a) and temperate regions (d)

**Fig. 4**
The global distribution of minimum mortality temperatures estimated for each 0.5° × 0.5° grid during the 2010s

**Fig. 5**
The distributions of change of most frequent temperature (MFT) in the 2050s compared to the 2010s under RCP4.5 (a) and RCP8.5 (b) scenarios for each 0.5° × 0.5° grid

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References

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1. Li TT, Horton RM, Kinney PL. Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature related deaths for Manhattan, New York. Nat. Clim. Change. 2013;3:717–721. - PMC - PubMed
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[1] Gasparrini A, et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet. 2015;386:369–375. - PMC - PubMed

[2] Gasparrini A, et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet. 2015;386:369–375. - PMC - PubMed

[3] Li TT, Horton RM, Kinney PL. Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature related deaths for Manhattan, New York. Nat. Clim. Change. 2013;3:717–721. - PMC - PubMed

[4] Li TT, Horton RM, Kinney PL. Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature related deaths for Manhattan, New York. Nat. Clim. Change. 2013;3:717–721. - PMC - PubMed

[5] Yang J, et al. Cardiovascular mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature in China. Heart. 2015;101:1966–1972. - PubMed

[6] Yang J, et al. Cardiovascular mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature in China. Heart. 2015;101:1966–1972. - PubMed

[7] Watts N, et al. Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. Lancet. 2015;386:1861–1914. - PubMed

[8] Watts N, et al. Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. Lancet. 2015;386:1861–1914. - PubMed

[9] Kinney PL. Heath: A new measure of health effects. Nat. Clim. Change. 2012;2:233–234.

[10] Kinney PL. Heath: A new measure of health effects. Nat. Clim. Change. 2012;2:233–234.

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Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change

Affiliations

Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

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