The 2004 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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 County results Lincoln: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Holt: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln won re-election to a second term in office despite President George W. Bush winning the state on the same ballot. As of 2023[update], this was the last time Democrats won the Class 3 Senate seat from Arkansas or that Arkansas elected a female to the U.S. Senate.
Background
editIncumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election. Lincoln won re-election over Republican State Senator Jim Holt while President George W. Bush carried the state with almost the same margin of victory.
The Democratic Party held super-majority status in the Arkansas General Assembly. A majority of local and statewide offices were also held by Democrats. This was rare in the modern South, where a majority of statewide offices are held by Republicans. Arkansas had the distinction in 1992 of being the only state in the country to give the majority of its vote to a single candidate in the presidential election—native son Bill Clinton—while every other state's electoral votes were won by pluralities of the vote among the three candidates. Arkansas has become more reliably Republican in presidential elections in recent years. The state voted for John McCain in 2008 by a margin of 20 percentage points, making it one of the few states in the country to vote more Republican than it had in 2004, the others being Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia.[1] Obama's relatively poor showing in Arkansas was likely due to a lack of enthusiasm from state Democrats following former Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton's failure to win the nomination, and his relatively poor performance among rural white voters (Clinton, however, herself lost the state by an even greater margin as the Democratic nominee in 2016).
Democrats had an overwhelming majority of registered voters, the Democratic Party of Arkansas is more conservative than the national entity. Two of Arkansas' three Democratic Representatives were members of the Blue Dog Coalition, which tends to be more pro-business, pro-military, and socially conservative than the center-left Democratic mainstream. Reflecting the state's large evangelical population, the state has a strong social conservative bent. Under the Arkansas Constitution Arkansas is a right to work state, its voters passed a ban on same-sex marriage with 74% voting yes, and the state is one of a handful that had legislation on its books banning abortion in the event of Roe v. Wade being overturned.
Republican primary
editCandidates
edit- Rosemarie Clampitt, retired actress[2]
- Jim Holt, State Senator
- Andy Lee, Benton County Sheriff
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Holt | 37,254 | 68.9% | |
| Republican | Andy Lee | 10,709 | 19.8% | |
| Republican | Rosemarie Clampitt | 6,078 | 11.3% | |
| Total votes | 54,041 | 100.0% | ||
General election
editCandidates
edit- Blanche Lincoln (D), Incumbent U.S. Senator
- Jim Holt (R), State Senator
Campaign
editLincoln was a popular incumbent. In March, she had an approval rating of 55%.[4] Lincoln called herself an advocate for rural America, having grown up on a farm herself. Holt was from Northwest Arkansas, and was also living on a farm.[5] Holt was widely known as a long shot. By the end of June, he had raised just $29,000, while Lincoln had over $5 million cash on hand.[6]
Debates
edit- Complete video of debate, October 28, 2004
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe D | November 1, 2004 |
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Blanche Lincoln (D) |
Jim Holt (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[8] | October 31 – November 1, 2004 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 53% | 43% | 4% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Blanche Lincoln (Incumbent) | 580,973 | 55.90% | |
| Republican | Jim Holt | 458,036 | 44.07% | |
| Write-in | 340 | 0.03% | ||
| Total votes | 1,039,349 | 100.0% | ||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
edit- Cleburne (Largest city: Heber Springs)
- Lonoke (Largest city: Cabot)
- Montgomery (Largest city: Mount Ida)
- Pike (Largest city: Glenwood)
- Pope (Largest city: Russellville)
- Saline (Largest city: Benton)
- Scott (Largest city: Waldron)
- Stone (Largest city: Mountain View)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
edit- Union (Largest city: El Dorado)
- Washington (Largest city: Fayetteville)
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
edit- ^ Wikimedia [user-generated source]
- ^ "Blytheville Native Launches U.S. Senate Bid". kait8.com. March 31, 2004. Archived from the original on April 6, 2015. Retrieved December 26, 2009.
- ^ David Leip. "2004 Senatorial Republican Primary Election Results - Arkansas". uselectionatlas.org.
- ^ "John J. Miller on U.S. Senate & Election 2004 on National Review Online". Archived from the original on March 9, 2012. Retrieved September 4, 2010.
- ^ "Sen. Lincoln Visits with Constituents in Region 8". kait8.com. 2 July 2004. Archived from the original on 1 December 2017. Retrieved 4 September 2010.
- ^ "Can Republicans hold on to the Senate?". NBC News. August 11, 2004. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016.
- ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
- ^ SurveyUSA
