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2004 United States presidential election in Alabama

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on November 2, 2004. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Alabama
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Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,176,394 693,933
Percentage 62.46% 36.84%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Alabama was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 25.62% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this was a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. On election day, it trended Republican sharply, by a swing margin of 10.74% from the 2000 election. Bush won with over 60% of the vote, a first since 1984, and carried most of the counties and congressional districts. Historically, Alabama is a very reliable Republican state that a Democratic presidential nominee has not won since 1976, when Southern governor of Georgia Jimmy Carter ran and swept the Deep South.

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid R
Associated Press Solid R
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Solid R
Newsweek Solid R
New York Times Solid R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Solid R
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Times Solid R
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2004 United States presidential election: Alabama

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double-digit margin of victory. The final three polls averaged Bush leading 58% to 38%.[2]

Fundraising

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Bush raised $3,092,923.[3] Kerry raised $514,589.[4]

Advertising and visits

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Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

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Bush easily won every poll taken in the state prior to the election. Kerry won a small section of counties in the middle of the state, including winning Alabama's 7th congressional district. In 2000, the state voted for Bush 56%–41% by fifteen points; this year it voted for him by 25 points.[2]

With the exception of Oklahoma in 2004, the state was also Bush's best performance in the South, with not even Texas, Bush's home state, voting as red as Alabama.

CNN exit polls showed that almost 70% of male voters voted for Bush as did 99% of registered Republicans (which made up 48% of the population). 43% of the state describe themselves as evangelical Christians, and 88% of them voted for Bush. 62% of the state approved of Bush, and 60% approved of the decision to go to war in Iraq. 82% of white men and 79% of white women voted for Bush. Finally, 70% of voters over the age of 60 voted for Bush. Alabama was racially divided: Alabama Whites voted 80%–19% for Bush while Blacks voted 91%-9% for Kerry.[7]

As of the 2024 presidential election, Bush is the last Republican to carry Jefferson County (home of Birmingham, the state's largest city) in a presidential election. Majority-black Marengo County wouldn't vote Republican again until 2024.

Results

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2004 United States presidential election in Alabama[8]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 1,176,394 62.46% 9
Democratic John Kerry 693,933 36.84% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 6,701 0.35% 0
Independent Michael Badnarik 3,529 0.19% 0
Independent Michael Peroutka 1,994 0.11% 0
Write Ins 898 0.05% 0
Totals 1,883,449 100.00% 9
Voter turnout (voting-age population) 55.5%

By county

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County George W. Bush
Republican 		John Kerry
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Autauga 15,196 75.67% 4,758 23.69% 127 0.63% 10,438 51.98% 20,081
Baldwin 52,971 76.42% 15,599 22.50% 750 1.09% 37,372 53.92% 69,320
Barbour 5,899 54.74% 4,832 44.84% 46 0.43% 1,067 9.90% 10,777
Bibb 5,472 72.00% 2,089 27.49% 39 0.51% 3,383 44.51% 7,600
Blount 17,386 80.85% 3,938 18.31% 180 0.84% 13,448 62.54% 21,504
Bullock 1,494 31.67% 3,210 68.05% 13 0.28% -1,716 -36.38% 4,717
Butler 4,979 59.16% 3,413 40.55% 24 0.29% 1,566 18.61% 8,416
Calhoun 29,814 65.89% 15,083 33.33% 352 0.78% 14,731 32.56% 45,249
Chambers 7,622 58.49% 5,347 41.03% 63 0.48% 2,275 17.46% 13,032
Cherokee 5,923 65.45% 3,040 33.59% 86 0.96% 2,883 31.86% 9,049
Chilton 12,829 76.85% 3,778 22.63% 86 0.52% 9,051 54.22% 16,693
Choctaw 3,897 53.92% 3,303 45.70% 27 0.37% 594 8.22% 7,227
Clarke 6,730 59.07% 4,627 40.61% 37 0.32% 2,103 18.46% 11,394
Clay 4,624 70.32% 1,893 28.79% 59 0.90% 2,731 41.53% 6,576
Cleburne 4,370 75.37% 1,391 23.99% 37 0.63% 2,979 51.38% 5,798
Coffee 13,019 73.90% 4,480 25.43% 117 0.66% 8,539 48.47% 17,616
Colbert 13,188 55.10% 10,598 44.28% 149 0.62% 2,590 10.82% 23,935
Conecuh 3,271 54.33% 2,719 45.16% 31 0.51% 552 9.17% 6,021
Coosa 2,905 58.09% 2,055 41.09% 41 0.82% 850 17.00% 5,001
Covington 11,119 76.02% 3,423 23.40% 85 0.58% 7,696 52.62% 14,627
Crenshaw 3,777 68.67% 1,698 30.87% 25 0.46% 2,079 37.80% 5,500
Cullman 26,818 76.21% 8,045 22.86% 328 0.93% 18,773 53.35% 35,191
Dale 13,621 74.71% 4,484 24.60% 126 0.69% 9,137 50.11% 18,231
Dallas 7,335 39.49% 11,175 60.17% 63 0.34% -3,840 -20.68% 18,573
DeKalb 16,904 69.94% 7,092 29.34% 173 0.72% 9,812 40.60% 24,169
Elmore 22,056 76.90% 6,471 22.56% 153 0.53% 15,585 54.34% 28,680
Escambia 8,513 68.68% 3,814 30.77% 68 0.55% 4,699 37.91% 12,395
Etowah 26,999 63.26% 15,328 35.91% 353 0.83% 11,671 27.35% 42,680
Fayette 5,534 69.16% 2,408 30.09% 60 0.74% 3,126 39.07% 8,002
Franklin 7,690 62.68% 4,514 36.79% 65 0.53% 3,176 25.89% 12,269
Geneva 8,342 79.30% 2,113 20.09% 65 0.62% 6,229 59.21% 10,520
Greene 958 20.18% 3,764 79.28% 26 0.54% -2,806 -59.10% 4,748
Hale 3,281 41.30% 4,631 58.29% 33 0.42% -1,350 -16.99% 7,945
Henry 4,881 66.31% 2,452 33.31% 28 0.38% 2,429 33.00% 7,361
Houston 26,874 74.24% 9,144 25.26% 183 0.50% 17,730 48.98% 36,201
Jackson 11,534 56.76% 8,635 42.49% 152 0.75% 2,899 14.27% 20,321
Jefferson 158,680 54.16% 132,286 45.15% 2,001 0.68% 26,394 9.01% 292,967
Lamar 4,894 71.08% 1,956 28.41% 35 0.51% 2,938 42.67% 6,885
Lauderdale 22,161 59.72% 14,628 39.42% 318 0.86% 7,533 20.30% 37,107
Lawrence 7,730 55.21% 6,155 43.96% 116 0.82% 1,575 11.25% 14,001
Lee 27,972 62.70% 16,227 36.38% 411 0.92% 11,745 26.32% 44,610
Limestone 19,702 67.77% 9,126 31.39% 245 0.84% 10,576 36.38% 29,073
Lowndes 1,786 29.66% 4,233 70.30% 2 0.03% -2,447 -40.64% 6,021
Macon 1,570 16.69% 7,800 82.92% 37 0.39% -6,230 -66.23% 9,407
Madison 77,173 58.88% 52,644 40.17% 1,245 0.95% 24,529 18.71% 131,062
Marengo 5,255 50.91% 5,037 48.80% 30 0.29% 218 2.11% 10,322
Marion 8,983 69.77% 3,808 29.58% 84 0.65% 5,175 40.19% 12,875
Marshall 22,783 72.35% 8,452 26.84% 256 0.81% 14,331 45.51% 31,491
Mobile 92,014 58.69% 63,732 40.65% 1,025 0.65% 28,282 18.04% 156,771
Monroe 5,831 61.16% 3,666 38.45% 37 0.39% 2,165 22.71% 9,534
Montgomery 44,097 49.19% 45,160 50.37% 393 0.44% -1,063 -1.18% 89,650
Morgan 32,477 69.09% 14,131 30.06% 399 0.85% 18,346 39.03% 47,007
Perry 1,738 31.47% 3,767 68.21% 18 0.33% -2,029 -36.74% 5,523
Pickens 5,170 56.61% 3,915 42.87% 47 0.51% 1,255 13.74% 9,132
Pike 7,483 62.97% 4,334 36.47% 66 0.56% 3,149 26.50% 11,883
Randolph 6,127 68.07% 2,817 31.30% 57 0.63% 3,310 36.77% 9,001
Russell 8,337 49.60% 8,375 49.82% 97 0.57% -38 -0.22% 16,809
Shelby 63,435 80.39% 14,850 18.82% 621 0.79% 48,585 61.57% 78,906
St. Clair 23,500 80.59% 5,456 18.71% 205 0.70% 18,044 61.88% 29,161
Sumter 1,880 29.22% 4,527 70.37% 26 0.40% -2,647 -41.15% 6,433
Talladega 18,331 61.31% 11,374 38.04% 193 0.65% 6,957 23.27% 29,898
Tallapoosa 12,392 69.03% 5,451 30.36% 109 0.61% 6,941 38.67% 17,952
Tuscaloosa 42,877 61.40% 26,447 37.87% 506 0.73% 16,430 23.53% 69,830
Walker 19,167 67.57% 9,016 31.78% 184 0.65% 10,151 35.79% 28,367
Washington 5,060 61.36% 3,145 38.14% 42 0.51% 1,915 23.22% 8,247
Wilcox 1,834 32.28% 3,838 67.55% 10 0.18% -2,004 -35.27% 5,682
Winston 8,130 78.00% 2,236 21.45% 57 0.55% 5,894 56.55% 10,423
Totals 1,176,394 62.46% 693,933 36.84% 13,122 0.70% 482,461 25.62% 1,883,449


 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Bush won 6 of 7 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st   64% 35% Jo Bonner
2nd   67% 33% Terry Everett
3rd   58% 41% Mike D. Rogers
4th   71% 28% Robert Aderholt
5th   60% 39% Bud Cramer
6th   78% 22% Spencer Bachus
7th   35% 64% Artur Davis
[9]

Electors

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Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Alabama cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Alabama is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[10][11]

  1. Beth Chapman
  2. Marty Connors
  3. Martha Hosey
  4. Will Sellers
  5. Mike Hubbard
  6. Floyd Lawson
  7. Elbert Peters
  8. Bettye Fine Collins
  9. Martha Stokes

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 13, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ^ a b "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  3. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  4. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  5. ^ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Election 2004". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  8. ^ [1] Archived May 13, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  9. ^ "Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. December 15, 2008. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  10. ^ [2] Archived March 26, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  11. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
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