The 2008 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the nationwide presidential election held throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose three electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
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  Borough & census area results
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Prior to the election, all leading news organizations considered this a state Republican nominee John McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Democratic nominee Barack Obama did, however, perform better in 2008 than Democratic nominee John Kerry did in 2004. This is the first election since its statehood in which Alaska failed to support the same candidate as Virginia, and the only time in which it did so for Indiana.
Alaska was won by McCain by a 21.53% margin. The presence of the state's popular Governor, Sarah Palin, on the ticket as the Republican Party's vice presidential nominee appeared to help. The McCain–Palin ticket received just a slightly smaller percentage of Alaskan votes than did Bush–Cheney in 2004 despite the nation swinging Democratic by 4.66% (48.27% to 52.93%). Polls from April until August indeed showed John McCain with a slim lead, with one poll taken in early August even showing Obama five points ahead. However, from when Sarah Palin was announced as McCain's running mate on August 29, polls showed John McCain consistently ahead. RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 55.8% for McCain, compared to 41.3% for Obama.
In addition, McCain's 193,841 vote total is the most received by a presidential candidate in the state's history. As of the 2020 election, this is the last election in which Aleutians West Census Area and Yukon–Koyukuk Census Area voted for the Republican candidate.
Primaries
editCampaign
editPredictions
editThere were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[1] | Likely R |
| Cook Political Report[2] | Solid R |
| The Takeaway[3] | Solid R |
| Electoral-vote.com[4] | Solid R |
| Washington Post[5] | Solid R |
| Politico[6] | Solid R |
| RealClearPolitics[7] | Solid R |
| FiveThirtyEight[5] | Solid R |
| CQ Politics[8] | Solid R |
| The New York Times[9] | Solid R |
| CNN[10] | Safe R |
| NPR[5] | Solid R |
| MSNBC[5] | Solid R |
| Fox News[11] | Likely R |
| Associated Press[12] | Likely R |
| Rasmussen Reports[13] | Safe R |
Polling
editOpinion polls consistently showed John McCain to be leading Barack Obama. From April until August they showed John McCain with a slim lead, with one poll taken in early August showing Obama five points ahead. However, from when Sarah Palin was announced as McCain's running mate on August 29, polls showed John McCain consistently ahead. RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 55.8% for McCain, compared to 41.3% for Obama.[14]
Fundraising
editBarack Obama raised $977,438. John McCain raised $321,101.[15]
Advertising and visits
editObama spent $134,686. McCain and his interest groups spent just $1,836.[16] The Democratic ticket didn't visit the state. Alaskan native Sarah Palin campaigned just once in the state during the fall election.[17]
Analysis
editAt the time of the election, Alaska had a Republican Governor and Lieutenant Governor (Sarah Palin and Sean Parnell, respectively) and was represented in both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives solely by Republicans (U.S. Senator Ted Stevens, who was defeated for reelection in 2008 by the former Democratic Mayor of Anchorage Mark Begich, and U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, and U.S. Representative Don Young). At the time of the election, Republicans held a majority in the Alaska House of Representatives whereas a coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans controlled the Alaska Senate. Furthermore, since becoming a state in 1959, Alaska has voted for the Republican nominee in every presidential election with the exception of 1964 when Alaska voted for president Lyndon B. Johnson in his 44-state landslide.
Early in the campaign, Obama actually bought some advertising in Alaska, apparently thinking that Libertarian Bob Barr could hold down McCain's numbers; Alaska has a history of supporting third-party candidates.[18] Also, several polls in the early summer of 2008 showed the race within single digits (with one poll from Alaska pollster Hays Research showing Obama with a five-point lead).[19]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 193,841 | 59.42% | 3 | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 123,594 | 37.89% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 3,783 | 1.16% | 0 | |
| Alaskan Independence | Chuck Baldwin | Darrell Castle | 1,660 | 0.51% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr | Wayne Allyn Root | 1,589 | 0.49% | 0 | |
| Independent | Write-in candidates | 1,730 | 0.53% | 0 | ||
| Invalid or blank votes | 1,144 | 0.35% | — | |||
| Totals | 327,341 | 100.00% | 3 | |||
| Voter turnout | 66.03% | |||||
| [20] | ||||||
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold |
Boroughs and Census Areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic
edit- Bethel Census Area (largest city: Bethel)
- Kusilvak Census Area (largest city: Hooper Bay)
- Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
- Yakutat
Results by Congressional District
editAlaska has an at-large congressional equivalent to the statewide results.
Electors
editTechnically the voters of Alaska cast their ballots for electors—representatives to the Electoral College. Alaska is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional district and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[21] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitals.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[22]
- Roy Burkhart
- Hope Nelson
- Robert Brodie
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Vote 2008 – The Takeaway – Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map – POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics – Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
- ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker – CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update – Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Alaska: McCain vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 31, 2009.
- ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance: AK Contributions to All Candidates by 3 digit Zip Code". Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved May 31, 2009.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits – Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ Todd, Chuck; and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009.
- ^ "2008 Alaska Presidential General Election: McCain vs Obama". Pollster. November 11, 2008. Archived from the original on January 18, 2010.
- ^ "Official General Election Results". State of Alaska: Division of Elections. December 3, 2008. Retrieved September 28, 2012.
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
- ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 6, 2008. Retrieved November 7, 2008.
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