The 2008 United States presidential election in Maine took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Maine is one of two states in the U.S. that instead of all of the state's four electors of the Electoral College to vote based upon the statewide results of the voters, two of the individual electors vote based on their congressional district because Maine has two congressional districts. The other two electors vote based upon the statewide results. See below in the section of Electors for more information.
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Maine once again displayed its status as a blue state, with Democrat Barack Obama taking the state with 57.71% of the vote and a difference of 126,650 votes. Maine is one of only two states, along with Nebraska, to not allocate its electoral votes via a winner-take-all system; rather, two electoral votes are allocated to the statewide winner and one for the winner in each individual congressional district. Maine at-large and its 1st district has voted Democratic since 1992, and the 2nd district did the same until Donald Trump won it in 2016 and 2020. It is also the only state in New England where a county voted for Republican John McCain, with Piscataquis County giving McCain roughly 50.7% of the vote.
Caucuses
editCampaign
editPredictions
editThere were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[1] | Likely D |
| Cook Political Report[2] | Solid D |
| The Takeaway[3] | Solid D |
| Electoral-vote.com[4] | Solid D |
| Washington Post[5] | Solid D |
| Politico[6] | Solid D |
| RealClearPolitics[7] | Solid D |
| FiveThirtyEight[5] | Solid D |
| CQ Politics[8] | Solid D |
| The New York Times[9] | Solid D |
| CNN[10] | Lean D |
| NPR[5] | Solid D |
| MSNBC[5] | Solid D |
| Fox News[11] | Likely D |
| Associated Press[12] | Likely D |
| Rasmussen Reports[13] | Safe D |
Polling
editObama won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 55% to 39%.[14]
Fundraising
editJohn McCain raised a total of $465,676 in the state, while Barack Obama raised $2,205,059.[15]
Advertising and visits
editObama spent $1,216,060 while McCain and the RNC spent $444,529.[16] The Obama ticket didn't visit the state, but both McCain and Palin visited Maine once.[17]
Analysis
editMaine is located in New England, an area that has become a Democratic Party stronghold. It was once a classic Yankee Republican state. It identified with the newly formed GOP in 1856 and stayed in the GOP fold for most of the next 132 years. The GOP carried the state in all but three elections (1912, 1964 and 1968) from 1856 to 1988. Additionally, Maine and Vermont were the only two states that voted against Franklin D. Roosevelt in all four of his campaigns. However, no Republican presidential nominee has carried Maine since George H. W. Bush in 1988, leading many analysts to reckon the state as part of the solid bloc of blue states in the Northeast. While George W. Bush seriously contested the state in 2000 and 2004, polls in 2008 never showed anything but a significant Obama lead.
Ultimately, Obama won the state by a comfortable margin, taking 57.71% of the vote—the highest percentage by a Democrat in Maine since Lyndon B. Johnson carried it as part of his 44-state landslide in 1964, although Bill Clinton in 1996 won with a wider margin when third parties were a factor. As evidence of how Democratic Maine has become, George W. Bush at the time was only the second Republican ever to win the White House without carrying Maine, the first being Richard Nixon in 1968 when Maine Senator Edmund Muskie was the Democratic vice-presidential nominee. At the same time, however, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins defeated former Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Allen and won reelection to a third term with 61.33% of the vote. Maine was the only state carried by Obama to elect a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 2008.
The seat in Maine's 1st Congressional District that was vacated by Tom Allen in his unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate was retained by Democrat Chellie Pingree. At the state level, Democrats made gains in the Maine Legislature, picking up six seats in the Maine House of Representatives and one seat in the Maine Senate.
Results
editStatewide
edit| 2008 United States presidential election in Maine | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 421,923 | 57.71% | 4 | |
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 295,273 | 40.38% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 10,636 | 1.45% | 0 | |
| Green | Cynthia McKinney | Rosa Clemente | 2,900 | 0.40% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr (write-in) | Wayne Allyn Root (write-in) | 251 | 0.03% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Chuck Baldwin (write-in) | Darrell Castle (write-in) | 177 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Totals | 731,163 | 100.00% | 4 | |||
| Voter turnout | % | — | ||||
By congressional district
editBarack Obama won both of Maine's two congressional districts.
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 37.69% | 60.51% | Tom Allen (110th Congress) |
| Chellie Pingree (111th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 43.35% | 54.61% | Mike Michaud |
By county
edit| County | Barack Obama Democratic |
John McCain Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Androscoggin | 31,017 | 56.55% | 22,671 | 41.33% | 1,162 | 2.12% | 8,346 | 15.22% | 54,850 |
| Aroostook | 19,345 | 53.75% | 15,898 | 44.17% | 751 | 2.09% | 3,447 | 9.58% | 35,994 |
| Cumberland | 105,218 | 64.10% | 56,186 | 34.23% | 2,747 | 1.67% | 49,032 | 29.87% | 164,151 |
| Franklin | 10,113 | 58.87% | 6,627 | 38.58% | 438 | 2.55% | 3,486 | 20.29% | 17,178 |
| Hancock | 18,895 | 58.74% | 12,686 | 39.44% | 584 | 1.82% | 6,209 | 19.30% | 32,165 |
| Kennebec | 37,238 | 56.43% | 27,482 | 41.65% | 1,266 | 1.92% | 9,756 | 14.78% | 65,986 |
| Knox | 13,728 | 59.74% | 8,816 | 38.36% | 436 | 1.90% | 4,912 | 21.38% | 22,980 |
| Lincoln | 11,886 | 55.07% | 9,287 | 43.03% | 411 | 1.90% | 2,599 | 12.04% | 21,584 |
| Oxford | 17,940 | 56.68% | 12,863 | 40.64% | 847 | 2.68% | 5,077 | 16.04% | 31,650 |
| Penobscot | 41,614 | 51.72% | 37,495 | 46.60% | 1,358 | 1.69% | 4,119 | 5.12% | 80,467 |
| Piscataquis | 4,430 | 46.96% | 4,785 | 50.72% | 219 | 2.32% | -355 | -3.76% | 9,434 |
| Sagadahoc | 12,152 | 57.05% | 8,721 | 40.94% | 428 | 2.01% | 3,431 | 16.11% | 21,301 |
| Somerset | 13,335 | 51.77% | 11,867 | 46.07% | 556 | 2.16% | 1,468 | 5.70% | 25,758 |
| Waldo | 11,967 | 54.77% | 9,423 | 43.13% | 460 | 2.10% | 2,544 | 11.64% | 21,850 |
| Washington | 8,246 | 49.51% | 8,077 | 48.50% | 331 | 1.99% | 169 | 1.01% | 16,654 |
| York | 64,799 | 59.36% | 42,389 | 38.83% | 1,973 | 1.81% | 22,410 | 20.53% | 109,161 |
| Total | 421,923 | 57.71% | 295,273 | 40.38% | 13,967 | 1.91% | 126,650 | 17.33% | 731,163 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
edit- Washington (largest borough: Calais)
Electors
editTechnically the voters of Maine cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Maine is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded just 2 of the electoral votes. The other 2 electoral votes are based upon the congressional district results. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[18] An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. Since Obama won both congressional districts, all 4 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[19]
- Robert O'Brien of Portland, ME. He works in a hardware store and has been active with the Democratic Party since 1984.[20]
- Jill Duson, of Portland, ME. She's a third term city councilor and a former mayor.[21]
- Samuel Shapiro of Waterville, ME. He's been a party activist since 1953 and is a former state treasurer.[22]
- Tracie Reed of Portland, ME. She's a master's candidate in the University of Massachusetts Amherst's architecture program and a political organizer.[23]
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved October 23, 2022.
- ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
- ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
- ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 20, 2009.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
- ^ Central Maine news, sports & weather & breaking news around Waterville | The Morning Sentinel, Waterville, ME[permanent dead link]
- ^ http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=219859&ac=[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Jill Duson — The League of Young Voters". Archived from the original on September 5, 2008. Retrieved July 5, 2009.
- ^ "Maine Office of the State Treasurer: About Us: Former Treasurers". Archived from the original on December 5, 2007. Retrieved July 5, 2009.
- ^ "Blogger: User Profile: Tracie Reed". Archived from the original on August 6, 2008. Retrieved July 5, 2009.