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2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

(Redirected from 2018 U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts)

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.

The 2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Democratic U.S. senator Elizabeth Warren ran for re-election to a second term. The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on September 4, 2018.[1]

2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
← 2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024 →
Turnout59.17%
 
Nominee Elizabeth Warren Geoff Diehl
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,633,371 979,210
Percentage 60.34% 36.17%
Warren:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Diehl:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

Warren won re-election, defeating her Republican opponent, state Representative Geoff Diehl.[2]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominated

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Results

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United States Senate Democratic primary in Massachusetts results by county, 2018:
  Warren—≥90%
Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 590,835 98.08%
Write-in 11,558 1.92%
Total votes 602,393 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominated

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Eliminated in primary

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Eliminated at convention

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  • Darius Mitchell[9]
  • Heidi Wellman[10]

Declined

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Endorsements

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Beth Lindstrom

Governors

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

John Kingston

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Geoff
Diehl 		John
Kingston 		Beth
Lindstrom 		Other Undecided
MassINC[43] June 22–25, 2018 399 ± 4.9% 26% 12% 15% 5% 41%

Results

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Overall

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Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by municipality, 2018
Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Geoff Diehl 144,043 55.15%
Republican John Kingston 69,636 26.66%
Republican Beth Lindstrom 46,693 17.88%
Write-in 798 0.31%
Total votes 261,170 100.00%

By county

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Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by county, 2018:
  Diehl—70–80%
  Diehl—60–70%
  Diehl—50–60%
  Diehl—40–50%
  Kingston—40–50%

Results by county. Red represents counties won by Diehl. Teal represents counties won by Kingston.

County Diehl
% 		Diehl
votes 		Kingston
% 		Kingston
votes 		Lindstrom
% 		Lindstrom
votes
Barnstable 57.0% 10,761 24.2% 4,573 18.6% 3,513
Berkshire 47.9% 1,221 37.8% 965 13.8% 352
Bristol 61.8% 11,005 23.0% 4,095 15.0% 2,669
Dukes 55.2% 347 25.9% 163 18.9% 119
Essex 53.1% 17,716 28.3% 9,428 18.3% 6,104
Franklin 41.8% 938 42.3% 949 15.3% 343
Hampden 50.5% 7,491 34.0% 5,048 15.0% 2,225
Hampshire 45.7% 1,967 36.7% 1,579 16.9% 725
Middlesex 52.5% 29,084 26.8% 14,852 20.3% 11,218
Nantucket 50.1% 168 29.6% 99 20.3% 68
Norfolk 58.9% 18,749 22.0% 7,009 18.8% 5,992
Plymouth 70.1% 23,242 19.8% 6,549 10.0% 3,316
Suffolk 53.5% 4,792 27.6% 2,471 18.2% 1,628
Worcester 44.8% 16,562 32.1% 11,856 22.8% 8,421
Total 55.2% 144,043 26.7% 69,636 17.9% 46,693

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Declined

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Independents

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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General election

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Endorsements

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Elizabeth Warren (D)

State officials

Newspapers

Organizations

Geoff Diehl (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Governors

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Shiva Ayyadurai (I)

Individuals

Newspapers

Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[119] Safe D September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[120] Safe D September 29, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[121] Safe D September 27, 2017
Fox News[122] Likely D July 9, 2018
CNN[123] Safe D July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[124] Safe D May 26, 2018

^Highest rating they assert

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Geoff
Diehl (R) 		Shiva
Ayyadurai (I) 		Other Undecided
MassINC[125] October 25–28, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 54% 32% 6% 3% 3%
Suffolk University[126] October 24–28, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 56% 34% 4% – 5%
Western New England University[127] October 10–27, 2018 402 LV ± 5.0% 57% 27% 7% – 8%
485 RV ± 4.0% 54% 27% 6% – 12%
UMass Lowell[128] October 1–7, 2018 485 LV ± 5.6% 56% 31% 8% 3% 2%
791 RV ± 4.4% 56% 28% 9% 4% 1%
MassINC[129] September 17–21, 2018 506 ± 4.4% 56% 30% 5% 1% 6%
Suffolk University[130] September 13–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 54% 24% 6% – 16%
Suffolk University[131] June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 55% 33% – – 11%
MassINC[132] May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 54% 19% 8% 1% 15%
MassINC[133] March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 55% 20% 9% 1% 13%
MassINC[134] November 9–12, 2017 503 ± 4.4% 58% 32% – 3% 7%
MassINC[135] June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 60% 29% – 1% 8%
Hypothetical polling

with Beth Lindstrom

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Beth
Lindstrom (R) 		Shiva
Ayyadurai (I) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk University[136] June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 56% 31% – – 13%
MassINC[132] May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 55% 19% 7% 2% 15%
MassINC[133] March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 53% 19% 9% 1% 14%
MassINC[134] November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 56% 33% – 3% 8%

with John Kingston

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		John
Kingston (R) 		Shiva
Ayyadurai (I) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk University[137] June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 54% 30% – – 15%
MassINC[132] May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 56% 19% 8% 1% 14%
MassINC[133] March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 53% 19% 7% 2% 12%
MassINC[134] November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 57% 33% – 2% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Karyn
Polito (R) 		Mitt
Romney (R) 		Richard
Tisei (R) 		Other Undecided
UMass Amherst[138] September 15–20, 2016 ≈450 ± 4.1% 40% 36% – – 5% 19%
44% – 31% – 10% 15%
39% – – 32% 3% 26%

with Shiva Ayyadurai running as Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Shiva
Ayyadurai (R) 		Other Undecided
MassINC[134] November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 58% 27% 4% 10%
MassINC[135] June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 61% 25% 2% 9%

with Curt Schilling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Curt
Schilling (R) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk University[139] October 24–26, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 58% 24% 2% 16%
UMass Amherst[138] September 15–20, 2016 ≈450 ± 4.1% 47% 28% 9% 16%
MassINC[140] September 7–10, 2016 506 ± 4.4% 54% 29% 3% 15%

with William Weld

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		William
Weld (L) 		Other Undecided
UMass Amherst[138] September 15–20, 2016 ≈450 ± 4.1% 40% 37% 8% 16%

Results

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United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018[141]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 1,633,371 60.34% +6.60%
Republican Geoff Diehl 979,210 36.17% −10.02%
Independent Shiva Ayyadurai 91,710 3.39% N/A
Write-in 2,799 0.10% N/A
Total votes 2,707,090 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Warren won all of the state’s congressional districts.[142]

District Diehl Warren Representative
1st 37.34% 58.95% Richard Neal
2nd 39.07% 57.01% Jim McGovern
3rd 38.56% 57.51% Niki Tsongas (115th Congress)
Lori Trahan (116th Congress)
4th 38.45% 58.19% Joe Kennedy III
5th 27.82% 68.91% Katherine Clark
6th 41.21% 54.98% Seth Moulton
7th 13.15% 84.51% Michael Capuano (115th Congress)
Ayanna Pressley (116th Congress)
8th 39.45% 57.65% Stephen Lynch
9th 45.67% 51.13% Bill Keating

References

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  89. ^ Geoff Diehl. "Thank you to #Hanson Board of Selectman Chair Ken Mitchell for your endorsement. Together we will put our communities and all of #MassachusettsFirst! #mapoli #masen #masen2018 #magop". Twitter.
  90. ^ Battenfeld, Joe (August 15, 2018). "Herman Cain reappears in support of Diehl's 'long shot' bid [+audio]". Boston Herald.
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  110. ^ Geoff Diehl. "BREAKING: I am proud to have earned the endorsement of the @NRA – National Rifle Association of America ahead of our Tuesday Primary. I'll always stand with law-abiding gun owners to protect our #2A #mapoli #masen #masen2018 #magop". Twitter.
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  115. ^ "Fake Indian, Meet Real Indian". December 3, 2017.
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  125. ^ MassINC
  126. ^ Suffolk University
  127. ^ Western New England University
  128. ^ UMass Lowell
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  130. ^ Suffolk University Archived September 20, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  131. ^ Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
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  136. ^ Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
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  138. ^ a b c UMass Amherst
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  141. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). www.sec.state.ma.us. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 29, 2018. Retrieved January 11, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  142. ^ "Daily Kos".
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Official campaign websites

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admin 8
Association 12
Note 3
twitter 32