Wikipedia

2024 United States presidential election in Montana

For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.

The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]

2024 United States presidential election in Montana
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 352,079 231,906
Percentage 58.39% 38.46%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Trump once again won Montana by 19.9%, an increase from his 16.4% margin of victory in 2020, but slightly under his 20.4% margin from 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safe red state.

Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana — a sparsely-populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains — has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrowly did so in 1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since 2000.

However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, which was seen as very competitive despite Sheehy's ultimate victory by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via the coattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.

Trump became the first Republican to win predominantly-Native American Big Horn County since Ronald Reagan in 1980. In addition, his 9.5% victory in Roosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in 1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of the Fort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. With Clallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in 1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in 1912. Trump also came within just 50 votes of winning Deer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there since Calvin Coolidge last won the county in 1924.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 Montana Democratic presidential primary

The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Democratic primary, June 4, 2024[2]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 94,587 91.1% 20 20
No preference 9,285 8.9%
Total: 103,872 100.0% 20 5 25

Republican primary

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Main article: 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary

The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Republican primary, June 4, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 165,678 90.9%
No Preference 16,570 9.1%
Total: 182,248 100.00% 31 0 31

Green primary

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The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.

Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
No Preference 495 100.00% 4
Total: 495 100.00% 4
Source:[4]

General election

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Candidates

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The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:[5]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[6] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[7] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] Safe R May 30, 2023
CNalysis[10] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[11] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[12] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[13] Solid R September 23, 2024
RCP[14] Likely R June 26, 2024
NBC News[15] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

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Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[16] November 3–4, 2024 752 (LV) ± 4.0% 59% 39% 2%
Emerson College[17][A] October 23–25, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 58% 39% 3%[b]
59%[c] 40% 1%
New York Times/Siena College[18] October 5–8, 2024 656 (RV) ± 4.0% 57% 39% 4%
656 (LV) 57% 40% 3%
RMG Research[19][B] September 12–19, 2024 491 (LV) ± 4.4% 59% 38% 3%[d]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)[20][C] 		August 25–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 56% 41% 3%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
Rasmussen Reports (R)[21][D] August 13–20, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.0% 58% 35% 7%
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins
Emerson College[22] August 5–6, 2024 1,000 (RV)  3.0% 55% 40% 5%
58%[c] 43% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[16] November 3–4, 2024 752 (LV) ± 4.0% 57% 37% – 2% 0% 4%[e]
New York Times/Siena College[18] October 5–8, 2024 656 (RV) ± 4.0% 56% 38% – 0% 0% 6%
656 (LV) 56% 39% – 0% 0% 5%
Remington Research Group (R)[23][E] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 39% – 2% – 3%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings[24] September 30 – October 16, 2024 760 (A) ± 3.6% 52% 34% 3% – 1% 2% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[21][D] August 13–20, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.0% 58% 31% 7% 0% 0% 0% 4%
American Pulse Research & Polling[25][F] August 10–12, 2024 538 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 38% 6% 0% 0% 2% 8%
Emerson College[22] August 5–6, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 54% 39% 5% 0% 0% 0% 2%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
RMG Research[26][B] August 6–14, 2024 540 (RV) ± 4.2% 57% 39% 2% 2%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[27] June 29 – July 1, 2024 570 (LV) ± 4.0% 56% 36% 8%
Torchlight Strategies (R)[28][G] June 22–26, 2024 649 (RV) ± 3.9% 51% 35% 14%[f]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[29][H] June 11–13, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 57% 37% 6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[30][I] June 3–5, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 54% 36% 10%
John Zogby Strategies[31][J] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 59% 34% 7%
Emerson College[32][A] February 26 – March 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 56% 35% 9%
SurveyUSA[33][F] February 12–15, 2024 549 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 29% 20%
Emerson College[34] October 1–4, 2023 447 (RV) ± 4.6% 49% 28% 23%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[35] September 16–19, 2023 1,451 (RV) – 54% 37% 9%
J.L. Partners[36] August 12–17, 2023 741 (LV) – 51% 39% 10%
Echelon Insights[37] August 31 – September 7, 2022 320 (LV) ± 6.6% 49% 36% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[32][A] February 26 – March 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 28% 8% 1% 1% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[35] September 16–19, 2023 1,451 (RV) – 51% 30% 7% 12%
49% 28% 4% 19%[g]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[31][J] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 50% 35% 15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[31][J] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 58% 30% 12%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
J.L. Partners[36] August 12–17, 2023 741 (LV) – 50% 36% 14%
Echelon Insights[37] August 31 – September 7, 2022 320 (LV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% 23%

Results

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2024 United States presidential election in Montana[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
352,001 58.39%   1.47%
Democratic
231,856 38.46%   2.09%
We the People
11,824 1.96% N/A
Libertarian
4,273 0.71%   1.82%
Green
2,878 0.48% N/A
Total votes 602,832 100.00% N/A
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Trump won both congressional districts.[39][self-published source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 54% 43% Ryan Zinke
2nd 63% 34% Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
Troy Downing (119th Congress)

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  3. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  5. ^ "Other" with 3%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  7. ^ Joe Manchin with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  3. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
  7. ^ Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  9. ^ Poll conducted by More Jobs, Less Government which supports Republican candidates
  10. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

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  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "Montana Presidential Primary". AP News. July 3, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  3. ^ "Montana Presidential Primary". AP News. July 3, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  4. ^ "2024 Primary Election - June 4, 2024". Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  5. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  12. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  15. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  16. ^ a b "Atlas Poll - US Key States - November 4, 2024" (PDF). AtlasIntel. November 4, 2024.
  17. ^ "October 2024 Montana Poll: Sheehy 50%, Tester 46%". Emerson College. October 27, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  18. ^ a b Goldmacher, Shane (October 10, 2024). "Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows". The New York Times.
  19. ^ "Montana: Trump 59% Harris 38%". Napolitan Institute. September 23, 2024.
  20. ^ Bridges, Kate (September 5, 2024). "Sheehy Leads Tester by 16 Points in Montana Senate Race". AARP. doi:10.26419/res.00813.034.
  21. ^ a b "Toplines - NUSA August 2024 Montana". Rasmussen Reports. August 30, 2024.
  22. ^ a b "Montana 2024 Poll: Trump 55%, Harris 40%". Emerson College Polling. August 8, 2024.
  23. ^ "Polling data on Biden-Harris gas car ban and EV mandate policies" (PDF). American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers. October 1, 2024.
  24. ^ "Mountain States Poll - October 2024" (PDF). Montana State University Billings. October 30, 2024.
  25. ^ "Poll shows strong Montana support for Trump over Harris". KULR8. August 14, 2024.
  26. ^ "Montana Senate: Tester 49% Sheehy 44%". Napolitan Institute. August 15, 2024.
  27. ^ Pearce, Tim (July 3, 2024). "Exclusive: Battleground Poll Shows Biden Tanking In Key States After Disastrous Debate". The Daily Wire.
  28. ^ Rogers, John (June 27, 2024). "June 2024 Survey of Likely Montana Voters". X.
  29. ^ "Montana Statewide Poll" (PDF). Public Opinion Strategies. June 13, 2024.
  30. ^ Fabrizio, Tony; Tunis, Travis (June 17, 2024). "MONTANA WANTS TO VOTE GOP – SHEEHY LEADS TESTER". Politico.
  31. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  32. ^ a b "Montana 2024 Poll: U.S. Senate Tester 44%, Sheehy 42%". Emerson College Polling. March 6, 2024.
  33. ^ Lewis, Megan (February 19, 2024). "Poll shows Trump winning Montana over Biden with more support than 2020". Montana Right Now.
  34. ^ "Montana 2024 Poll: Democratic Senator Jon Tester Holds Narrow Lead Over Republican Challenger Tim Sheehy". Emerson College Polling. October 17, 2023.
  35. ^ a b "Pulse of the Nation Report - Voter Attitudes and Concerns Driven by High Costs" (PDF). Future Majority. October 11, 2023.
  36. ^ a b "Montana - Prepared by J.L. Partners" (PDF). Squarespace. August 31, 2023.
  37. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  38. ^ "2024 General Election - November 5, 2024". Secretary of State of Montana. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 23, 2024.
  39. ^ https://x.com/TheDrewSav/status/1855335674708213793
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