The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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As a densely-populated state in the Northeast, New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election subsequent to 1988, doing so consistently by double digits starting in 2008. In 2020, the state broke 57%–41% for Democrat Joe Biden of neighboring Delaware. The state was heavily favored to be carried by the Democrats by forecasters.
New Jersey was won by the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. However, she won the state by 5.9 points, significantly smaller than Biden's 16-point win in 2020. This is the first time since the 2004 presidential election that the Democratic nominee won the state with a single digit margin of victory, and Republican nominee Donald Trump's 46% vote share in New Jersey is on par with George W. Bush's performance in 2004 and the closest a Republican has come to winning the state's electoral votes since George H. W. Bush in 1992. New Jersey also had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after neighboring New York, owing to poor Democratic turnout compared to 2020 and 2016.[2] New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York, California, and Illinois to see significant rightward trends in 2024.[3] Trump's over 1.96 million votes is the most received by a Republican in a presidential election in the state's history, surpassing Ronald Reagan's 1.93 million votes from 1984.
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editThe New Jersey Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 458,281 | 88.2% | 124 | ||
| Uncommitted | 46,988 | 9.1% | 2 | ||
| Terrisa Bukovinac | 14,179 | 2.7% | |||
| Write-in votes | 1,269 | 0.2% | |||
| Total: | 520,717 | 100.0% | 126 | 20 | 146 |
Republican primary
editThe New Jersey Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 294,658 | 96.7% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| Write-in votes | 9,915 | 3.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 304,573 | 100.00% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[6] | Solid D | November 1, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Solid D | October 31, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe D | September 25, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Safe D | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[10] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[11] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[12] | Safe D | October 27, 2024 |
| 538[13] | Solid D | October 21, 2024 |
| NBC News[14] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[15] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton[16] | October 15–22, 2024 | 451 (RV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10%[b] |
| 478 (RV) | 51%[c] | 37% | 12%[d] | |||
| ActiVote[17] | October 2–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 43% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[18] | October 23–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | 8%[e] |
| ActiVote[19] | September 4 – October 2, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United 2024 (R)[20] | July 1–2, 2024 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| John Zogby Strategies[21][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Emerson College[22] | March 26–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United 2024 (R)[20] | July 1–2, 2024 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 43% | 8% | — | 3% | 3% |
| Emerson College[22] | March 26–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R)[23] | June 26–27, 2024 | 810 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 41% | 7%[f] | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[21][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[21][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kamala Harris Tim Walz |
2,220,713 | 51.97% | −5.37% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump JD Vance |
1,968,215 | 46.06% | +4.66% | |
| Green | Jill Stein Butch Ware |
39,041 | 0.91% | +0.60% | |
| Independent |
|
23,479 | 0.55% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat |
10,500 | 0.25% | −0.45% | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Claudia De la Cruz Karina Garcia |
5,105 | 0.12% | +0.06% | |
| Constitution | Randall Terry Stephen Broden |
3,024 | 0.07% | +0.01% | |
| Socialist Equality | Joseph Kishore Jerome White |
1,371 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Socialist Workers | Rachele Fruit Margaret Trowe[g] |
1,277 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 4,272,725 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
edit
| County | Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Atlantic | 61,879 | 47.52% | 65,817 | 50.55% | 2,513 | 1.93% | -3,938 | -3.03% | 130,209 |
| Bergen | 232,660 | 50.50% | 217,096 | 47.12% | 10,929 | 2.38% | 15,564 | 3.38% | 460,685 |
| Burlington | 132,275 | 57.47% | 94,116 | 40.89% | 3,792 | 1.64% | 38,159 | 16.58% | 230,183 |
| Camden | 155,522 | 62.76% | 87,767 | 35.42% | 4,497 | 1.82% | 67,755 | 27.34% | 247,786 |
| Cape May | 21,648 | 39.51% | 32,151 | 58.68% | 987 | 1.81% | -10,503 | -19.17% | 54,786 |
| Cumberland | 26,577 | 47.50% | 28,675 | 51.25% | 700 | 1.25% | -2,098 | -3.75% | 55,952 |
| Essex | 224,596 | 71.69% | 83,908 | 26.78% | 4,779 | 1.53% | 140,688 | 44.91% | 313,283 |
| Gloucester | 78,708 | 47.63% | 83,326 | 50.42% | 3,229 | 1.95% | -4,618 | -2.79% | 165,263 |
| Hudson | 144,765 | 62.34% | 79,913 | 34.41% | 7,554 | 3.25% | 64,852 | 27.93% | 232,232 |
| Hunterdon | 36,995 | 45.52% | 42,391 | 52.16% | 1,885 | 2.32% | -5,396 | -6.64% | 81,271 |
| Mercer | 107,558 | 65.67% | 52,274 | 31.92% | 3,947 | 2.41% | 55,284 | 33.75% | 163,779 |
| Middlesex | 191,802 | 52.31% | 162,459 | 44.31% | 12,378 | 3.38% | 29,343 | 8.00% | 366,639 |
| Monmouth | 156,382 | 43.25% | 197,409 | 54.59% | 7,805 | 2.16% | -41,027 | -11.34% | 361,596 |
| Morris | 135,672 | 47.43% | 143,439 | 50.14% | 6,955 | 2.43% | -7,767 | -2.71% | 286,066 |
| Ocean | 105,789 | 31.30% | 227,232 | 67.22% | 5,014 | 1.48% | -121,443 | -35.92% | 338,035 |
| Passaic | 95,156 | 46.79% | 100,954 | 49.65% | 7,241 | 3.56% | -5,798 | -2.86% | 203,351 |
| Salem | 12,275 | 39.49% | 18,229 | 58.64% | 581 | 1.87% | -5,954 | -19.15% | 31,085 |
| Somerset | 98,790 | 55.39% | 74,101 | 41.55% | 5,452 | 3.06% | 24,689 | 13.84% | 178,343 |
| Sussex | 31,019 | 36.53% | 52,123 | 61.38% | 1,775 | 2.09% | -21,104 | -24.85% | 84,917 |
| Union | 147,327 | 60.90% | 89,063 | 36.81% | 5,533 | 2.29% | 58,264 | 24.09% | 241,923 |
| Warren | 23,318 | 38.63% | 35,772 | 59.27% | 1,266 | 2.10% | -12,454 | -20.64% | 60,356 |
| Totals | 2,220,713 | 51.79% | 1,968,215 | 45.90% | 98,812 | 2.31% | 252,498 | 5.89% | 4,287,740 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
edit- Atlantic (largest municipality: Egg Harbor Township)
- Cumberland (largest municipality: Vineland)
- Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township)
- Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany)
- Passaic (largest municipality: Paterson)
By congressional district
editHarris won 8 of 12 congressional districts, with the remaining four going to Trump, including one that elected a Democrat.[26][user-generated source]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 58.61% | 39.88% | Donald Norcross |
| 2nd | 42.96% | 55.60% | Jeff Van Drew |
| 3rd | 53.36% | 45.00% | Andy Kim (118th Congress) |
| Herb Conaway (119th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 34.26% | 64.37% | Chris Smith |
| 5th | 49.80% | 48.29% | Josh Gottheimer |
| 6th | 51.95% | 45.53% | Frank Pallone Jr. |
| 7th | 48.45% | 49.63% | Tom Kean Jr. |
| 8th | 60.83% | 36.35% | Rob Menendez |
| 9th | 48.02% | 49.16% | Nellie Pou |
| 10th | 74.52% | 23.75% | LaMonica McIver |
| 11th | 53.34% | 44.62% | Mikie Sherrill |
| 12th | 60.57% | 36.70% | Bonnie Watson Coleman |
Analysis
editTrump retook Gloucester County and Morris County, which he won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020. Additionally, Trump would be the first Republican to win Passaic County since 1992, and Atlantic County and Cumberland County since 1988, while also being the first Republican presidential candidate to win a majority of the state's counties since 1992. 2024 also marked the first presidential election since 1992 in which New Jersey voted to the right of New Mexico.
With this election, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli's strong performance in the 2021 gubernatorial election, some analysts believe New Jersey has transitioned from a reliable blue state into a potential swing state.[27]
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ a b c d e f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Neither/Someone else" with 6%
- ^ With each candidate's party affiliation excluded
- ^ "Neither/Someone else" with 7%
- ^ "A third-party candidate" with 4%
- ^ Grouped with "Other Third Party Candidate"
- ^ Replaced by Dennis Richter.[25]
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Tully, Tracey; New York Times (November 7, 2024). "Trump's Narrow Loss in New Jersey Signals a Shift to the Right". The New York Times.
- ^ Reporter, Martha McHardy US News (November 6, 2024). "America's red shift: Map shows how much each state moved toward Trump". Newsweek. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
- ^ "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
- ^ "New Jersey Voters Are "True Blue" to Democrats, But Loyalty Fades and Uncertainty Rises in the Absence of Partisanship Down Ballot" (PDF). Rutgers-Eagleton. October 30, 2024.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Harris Leads in New Jersey". ActiVote.
- ^ Shucard, Ryan (October 26, 2024). "New Jersey Statewide Poll: Harris Underperforms Compared to Past Democratic Nominees". Cygnal. Archived from the original on October 29, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 3, 2024). "Harris leads by double digits in New Jersey". ActiVote. Retrieved October 3, 2024.
- ^ a b Wildstein, David (July 3, 2024). "GOP super PAC poll in N.J. shows Biden vs. Trump, Kim vs. Bashaw statistically tied". New Jersey Globe.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (April 2, 2024). "New Jersey 2024 Poll: Majority of Democrats Support Kim for U.S. Senate Nomination". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "New Jersey U.S. Senate 2024 - General Election". co/efficient. June 27, 2024.
- ^ Secretary of State of New Jersey (December 5, 2024). "Official General Election Results: U.S. President" (PDF). nj.gov. Retrieved December 16, 2024.
- ^ "Dennis Richter, SWP candidate for vice president – The Militant". The Militant – A socialist newsweekly published in the interests of working people. May 4, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Pres by CD".
- ^ Friedman, Matt; Han, Daniel (November 6, 2024). New Jersey might be a swing state now. Politico. Retrieved November 9, 2024.