2010 Colombian presidential election
Presidential elections were held in Colombia in 2010. They took place under a two-round system, with an initial vote held on 30 May and a second poll held three weeks later on 20 June.[1] A referendum proposal that would have allowed incumbent President Álvaro Uribe the opportunity to run for a third term was rejected by the Constitutional Court of Colombia in a 7–2 ruling on 26 February 2010.[2] Because no candidate received a majority (more than one-half) of the votes cast in the 30 May poll, the candidates with the two highest vote totals competed in a runoff election on 20 June: Juan Manuel Santos of the liberal-conservative Social Party of National Unity which unites supporters of former President Uribe, and Antanas Mockus from the Green Party. Santos won the election with 69% of the votes.
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| Turnout | 49.30% (first round) 44.35% (second round) | |||||||||||||||||||
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 Second round results by department | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Candidates
editGovernment group
editIn 2002, Álvaro Uribe of the Colombia First party was elected president with 53.1 per cent of the vote, breaking the two-party system that ruled the country since 1958, with the promise of ending the armed conflict that haunts the country since 1964 by strengthening the Armed Forces.[3] In 2006, he managed to change the Constitution in order to run for a second consecutive term.[3] After a practically mute campaign, Uribe won the election with 62.2 per cent of the vote, followed by Carlos Gaviria of the Alternative Democratic Pole with a distant 22 per cent.[3]
In 2007, Luis Guillermo Giraldo, leader of the pro-Uribe Party of the U, announced he would create the "promoters' committee", a group charged with gathering signatures to call a referendum on whether Uribe should be allowed to run for a third term in office.[3] In September 2009, Congress approved the referendum bill in a late-night voting boycotted by members of the opposition.[3] On 26 February 2010, the Constitutional Court voted against the referendum bill.[3] Immediately after the ruling, former defence minister Juan Manuel Santos confirmed that he would become a presidential candidate.[3] Another Uribist candidate was Germán Vargas Lleras of the Radical Change party.[3] Former Colombian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Noemí Sanín, and former agriculture minister Andrés Felipe Arias, two of the closest Uribe allies, were seeking nomination by the Conservative Party.[3] Sanín was nominated.
Opposition group
editTwo of the opposition candidates were Rafael Pardo of the Liberal Party and Gustavo Petro of the Alternative Democratic Pole.[3] Álvaro Leyva, a Uribe opponent, was seeking the presidential nomination by the Conservative Party.[3]
On 2 October 2009, the Green Party was officially created.[3] It nominated its presidential candidate on a primary ballot that took place on 14 March 2010, the same day as the legislative election.[3] The contenders were three former Bogotá mayors: Enrique Peñalosa, Antanas Mockus, and Luis Eduardo Garzón. The Greens seek to be a moderate force in what they called "a polarized" political situation, calling themselves "Post-Uribists."[3] Mockus was chosen as their candidate. Former Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo joined him as his running mate on 5 April 2010, after missing the requirements to become a presidential candidate himself.[4]
Opinion polls
editFirst round
edit| Date | Institute | Candidate | Undecided (Ns/Nr) V. None |
Source | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Pardo | Gustavo Petro | Germán Vargas Lleras | Sergio Fajardo | Juan Manuel Santos | Antanas Mockus | Noemí Sanín | Róbinson Devia | Jaime Araújo | Jairo Calderón | ||||
| 24 March 2010 | Invamer Gallup | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 34.2% | 10.4% | 23.3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.4% | [5] |
| 26 March 2010 | Datexco | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 34.1% | 8.9% | 21.7% | 0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 11.4% | [6] |
| 27 March 2010 | Ipsos Napoleón Franco | 4% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 36% | 9% | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 14% | [7] |
| 27 March 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 28.6% | 11.3% | 21.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.1% | [8] |
| 8 April 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 5% | 6% | 3% | - | 37% | 22% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | [9] |
| 9 April 2010 | Datexco | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3% | - | 29.5% | 24.8% | 16.4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.2% | [10] |
| 15 April 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 4% | 4% | 2% | - | 36% | 29% | 19% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 5% | [11] |
| 16 April 2010 | Ipsos Napoleón Franco | 5% | 4% | 3% | - | 30% | 20% | 12% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 15% | [12] |
| 22 April 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 5% | 5% | 4% | - | 35% | 34% | 12% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | [13] |
| 26 April 2010 | Ipsos Napoleón Franco | 3% | 5% | 3% | - | 29% | 38% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 10% | [14] |
| 28 April 2010 | Invamer Gallup | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | - | 34.2% | 31.6% | 16.2% | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | 3.5% | [15] |
| 29 April 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 3% | 5% | 4% | - | 34% | 39% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | [16] |
| 30 April 2010 | Datexco | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | - | 26.7% | 38.7% | 9.8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.3% | [17] |
| 6 May 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 3% | 5% | 5% | - | 34% | 38% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | [18] |
| 7 May 2010 | Datexco | 1.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | - | 25.2% | 37.7% | 6.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.7% | [19] |
| 9 May 2010 | Ipsos Napoleón Franco | 4% | 4% | 3% | - | 35% | 34% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12% | [20] |
| 13 May 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 3% | 4% | 4% | - | 38% | 36% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | [21] |
| 14 May 2010 | Datexco | 3.1% | 7.5% | 4.3% | - | 29.3% | 32.8% | 5.6% | 0% | 0.4% | 0% | 13.8% | [22] |
| 19 May 2010 | Invamer Gallup | 3.8% | 7.3% | 3.8% | - | 37.5% | 35.4% | 8.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0% | 3.1% | [23] |
| 20 May 2010 | University of Medellin | 2.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | - | 32.9% | 37.4% | 8.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 6.9% | [24] |
| 20 May 2010 | Centro Nacional De Consultoría | 4% | 5% | 4% | - | 39% | 34% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | [25] |
| 21 May 2010 | Datexco | 2% | 5% | 3% | - | 35% | 34% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12% | [26] |
| 22 May 2010 | Ipsos Napoleón Franco | 3% | 6% | 5% | - | 34% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14% | [27] |
Second round: Mockus vs. Santos
edit| Date | Institute | Candidate | Undecided (Ns/Nr) V. None |
Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Manuel Santos | Antanas Mockus | ||||
| 15 April 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 49% | 44% | 7% | [28] |
| 16 April 2010 | Ipsos Napoleón Franco | 45% | 37% | 18% | [12] |
| 22 April 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 44% | 50% | 6% | [13] |
| 26 April 2010 | Ipsos Napoleón Franco | 37% | 50% | 13% | [14] |
| 28 April 2010 | Invamer Gallup | 42.2% | 47.9% | 9.9% | [15] |
| 29 April 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 42% | 53% | 5% | [16] |
| 30 April 2010 | Datexco | 29% | 41.5% | 29.5% | [17] |
| 6 May 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 43% | 50% | 7% | [18] |
| 7 May 2010 | Datexco | 30.5% | 52% | 17.5% | [19] |
| 9 May 2010 | Ipsos Napoleón Franco | 41% | 48% | 11% | [20] |
| 13 May 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 47% | 47% | 6% | [21] |
| 14 May 2010 | Datexco | 33.6% | 47.9% | 17.5% | [22] |
| May 19, 2010 | Invamer Gallup | 42.2% | 48.5% | 9.3% | [23] |
| 20 May 2010 | University of Medellin | 36% | 41.4% | 22.6% | [29] |
| 20 May 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 47% | 46% | 7% | [25] |
| 21 May 2010 | Datexco | 44% | 45% | 11% | [30] |
| 22 May 2010 | Ipsos Napoleón Franco | 40% | 45% | 15% | [27] |
| 3 June 2010 | Centro Nacional de Consultoría | 61.6% | 29.8% | 5.8% | [31] |
Conduct
editOn election day seven Colombian security services personnel were killed and eight were missing; parallels were drawn with FARC attacks and Santos' tenure as Defense Minister.[32]
Results
edit No candidate received an outright majority in the first round vote held on 30 May. Santos and Mockus faced one another in the runoff election on 20 June, leading to the election of Juan Manuel Santos as the next Colombian President.
Santos achieved a landslide victory, with 69 per cent of the votes.[33] Mockus got 27.51 per cent of votes.[34] This was the largest margin of victory for a president in the democratic period of Colombia's history.[35] Santos won 32 of the country's 33 electoral districts.[33] His allies have an overwhelming majority in the Colombian Congress.[33] Santos vowed to continue his predecessor's hardline stance against the country's Marxist rebels.[33] He paraphrased Isaac Newton – "If we have come far it's because we are standing on the shoulders of giants" – and said he would rid Colombia of what he described as the "nightmare of violence".[36]
The United States State Department said it was "pleased" with the election of Santos and praised the "spirited debate" before the runoff and Colombia's "longstanding commitment to democratic principles".[35]
| Candidate | Party | First round | Second round | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Juan Manuel Santos | Social Party of National Unity | 6,802,043 | 46.68 | 9,028,943 | 69.13 | |
| Antanas Mockus | Green Party | 3,134,222 | 21.51 | 3,587,975 | 27.47 | |
| Germán Vargas Lleras | Radical Change | 1,473,627 | 10.11 | |||
| Gustavo Petro | Alternative Democratic Pole | 1,331,267 | 9.14 | |||
| Noemí Sanín | Colombian Conservative Party | 893,819 | 6.13 | |||
| Rafael Pardo | Colombian Liberal Party | 638,302 | 4.38 | |||
| Róbinson Devia | Voice of Conscience Movement | 31,338 | 0.22 | |||
| Jairo Calderón | Liberal Opening Movement | 29,151 | 0.20 | |||
| Jaime Araújo | Afro-Colombian Social Alliance | 14,847 | 0.10 | |||
| Blank votes | 223,977 | 1.54 | 444,274 | 3.40 | ||
| Total | 14,572,593 | 100.00 | 13,061,192 | 100.00 | ||
| Valid votes | 14,572,593 | 98.59 | 13,061,192 | 98.23 | ||
| Invalid votes | 208,427 | 1.41 | 235,732 | 1.77 | ||
| Total votes | 14,781,020 | 100.00 | 13,296,924 | 100.00 | ||
| Registered voters/turnout | 29,983,279 | 49.30 | 29,983,279 | 44.35 | ||
| Source: RNEC, RNEC, IFES, IFES | ||||||
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ Maximiliano Herrera. "Electoral Calendar- world elections,US elections,presidential election,world parties". Mherrera.org. Retrieved 23 June 2010.
- ^ Markey, Patrick (26 February 2010). "Colombia's Uribe blocked from re-election". Reuters. Retrieved 26 February 2010.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Uribe will not run again[usurped]. Angus Reid Global Monitor. March 14, 2010.
- ^ "Santos, Sanín Could Go to Run-off in Colombia: Angus Reid Global Monitor". Angus-reid.com. Archived from the original on 12 April 2010. Retrieved 23 June 2010.
- ^ La Opinión, ed. (24 March 2010). "Primera gran encuesta de medios sobre intención de voto para las próximas elecciones presidenciales". Archived from the original on 7 July 2011. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
- ^ El Tiempo, ed. (26 March 2010). "Juan Manuel Santos, con 34,1 por ciento, encabeza encuesta de Datexco; Noemí Sanín lo sigue con 21,7".
- ^ Revista Semana, ed. (27 March 2010). "El Partidor". Archived from the original on 13 April 2010. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
- ^ Revista Poder, ed. (27 March 2010). "¿Santos vs. Noemí en segunda vuelta?". Archived from the original on 18 January 2012. Retrieved 4 April 2010.
- ^ Revista Semana, ed. (8 April 2010). "Mockus supera a Sanín en encuesta del Centro Nacional de Consultoría". Archived from the original on 11 April 2010. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
- ^ Diario El Tiempo, ed. (9 April 2010). "Nuevo Opinómetro de Datexco revela que Santos y Mockus disputarían la segunda vuelta".
- ^ Diario El Espectador, ed. (15 April 2010). "Nueva encuesta presidencial revela que Mockus está a sólo 7 puntos de Santos". Archived from the original on 18 April 2010. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
- ^ a b Revista Semana, ed. (16 April 2010). "Habría segunda vuelta Santos – Mockus, según Gran Encuesta". Archived from the original on 19 April 2010. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
- ^ a b CM&, ed. (22 April 2010). "GRAN ENCUESTA CM&: Antanas Mockus ganaría la Presidencia si la segunda vuelta fuera mañana".
- ^ a b Semana, ed. (26 April 2010). "Mockus 38% – Santos 29%, en primera; Mockus 50% – Santos 37%, en segunda". Archived from the original on 30 April 2010. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
- ^ a b Caracol Televisión, ed. (28 April 2010). "Santos ganaría en primera vuelta y Mockus, en segunda". Archived from the original on 1 May 2010. Retrieved 30 April 2010.
- ^ a b Noticiero CM&, ed. (29 April 2010). "Candidato Antanas Mockus encabeza nueva encuesta de CM& y el Centro Nacional de Consultoría".
- ^ a b El Tiempo, ed. (30 April 2010). "Mockus tendría el 41,5% de intención de voto en segunda vuelta y Santos el 29%, según Datexco".
- ^ a b El Espectador, ed. (6 May 2010). "Nueva encuesta da a Mockus una ventaja de cuatro puntos sobre Santos".
- ^ a b W Radio, ed. (7 May 2010). "Antanas Mockus con un 37,7% encabeza intención de voto, revela encuesta de Datexco". Archived from the original on 9 October 2011. Retrieved 8 May 2010.
- ^ a b Semana, ed. (9 May 2010). "¡Empatados!". Archived from the original on 10 May 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
- ^ a b CM&, ed. (13 May 2010). "Nueva gran encuesta presidencial CM& – Centro Nacional de Consultoría". Archived from the original on 7 July 2011. Retrieved 17 May 2010.
- ^ a b Caracol Radio, ed. (14 May 2010). "Nueva encuesta de Datexco mantiene en primer lugar a Mockus". Archived from the original on 1 January 2013.
- ^ a b El Tiempo, ed. (19 May 2010). "Santos, con el 37,5%, y Mockus, con el 35,4%, encabezan intención de voto: encuesta Invamer Gallup".
- ^ El Espectador, ed. (20 May 2010). "Segunda Encuesta Elecciones Presidenciales 2010".
- ^ a b El Tiempo, ed. (20 May 2010). "Santos 39%; Mockus 34%, según la más reciente encuesta del centro Nacional de Consultoría".
- ^ El Tiempo, ed. (21 May 2010). "Empate técnico entre Santos, con el 35%, y Mockus, con el 34%, revela sondeo de Datexco".
- ^ a b El Espectador, ed. (22 May 2010). "Santos ganador en primera vuelta mientras Mockus lo haría en la segunda".
- ^ Diario El Pais, ed. (15 April 2010). "Según nueva encuesta, Mockus está a siete puntos de Santos".[permanent dead link]
- ^ El Espectador, ed. (20 May 2010). "Encuesta de la Universidad de Medellín da como ganador a Mocku".
- ^ El Tiempo, ed. (21 May 2010). "Empate técnico entre Santos, con el 35%, y Mockus, con el 34%, revela sondeo de Datexco".
- ^ AFP, ed. (3 June 2010). "Los sondeos dan una victoria aplastante de Santos en las elecciones de Colombia". Archived from the original on 10 June 2010.
- ^ "Police killed on Colombia poll day - Americas". Al Jazeera English. 29 May 2010. Retrieved 23 June 2010.
- ^ a b c d Hennigan, Tom (22 June 2010). "Landslide win for Santos in Colombian election". The Irish Times. Irish Times Trust. Retrieved 22 June 2010.
- ^ Xuequan, Mu (20 June 2010). "Santos elected as new president of Colombia". Xinhua News Agency. Archived from the original on 6 November 2012. Retrieved 20 June 2010.
- ^ a b "U.S. is 'pleased' with Colombia's new president-elect Santos". The Hindu. 22 June 2010. Retrieved 22 June 2010.
- ^ Murphy, Helen; Bristow, Matthew (21 June 2010). "Colombia's Santos Hails Uribe in Landslide Victory (Correct)". Business Week. Archived from the original on 29 May 2012. Retrieved 21 June 2010.