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Effects of the Great Recession

This information is related to the effects of the Great Recession that happened worldwide from 2007 to 2012.

Overview

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The Great Recession was the worst post-World War II contraction on record:[1]

  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) began contracting in the third quarter of 2008, and by early 2009 was falling at an annualized pace not seen since the 1950s.[2]
  • Capital investment, which was in decline year-on-year since the final quarter of 2006, matched the 1957–58 post war record in the first quarter of 2009. The pace of collapse in residential investment picked up speed in the first quarter of 2009, dropping 23.2% year-on-year, nearly four percentage points faster than in the previous quarter.
  • Domestic demand, in decline for five straight quarters, is still three months shy of the 1974–75 record, but the pace – down 2.6% per quarter vs. 1.9% in the earlier period – is a record-breaker already.

Trade and industrial production

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International trade, 2000-2010. 2000=100.[3] A plunge in the volumes of exchanges can be seen as of the second half of 2008.

In middle-October 2008, the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping volume, fell by 50% in one week, as the credit crunch made it difficult for exporters to obtain letters of credit.[4]

In February 2009, The Economist claimed that the 2007–2008 financial crisis had produced a "manufacturing crisis", with the strongest declines in industrial production occurring in export-based economies.[5]

In March 2009, Britain's Daily Telegraph reported the following declines in industrial output, from January 2008 to January 2009: Japan −31%, Korea −26%, Russia −16%, Brazil −15%, Italy −14%, Germany −12%.[6] Some analysts ventured that the world was going through a period of deglobalization and protectionism after years of increasing economic integration.[7][8]

Sovereign funds and private buyers from the Middle East and Asia, including China,[9] are increasingly buying in on stakes of European and U.S. businesses, including industrial enterprises.[10] Due to the global recession they are available at a low price.[11][12] The Chinese government has concentrated on natural-resource deals across the world,[13] securing supplies of oil and minerals.[14]

Retail

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Mall museums are a new global development resulting from the 2007-2010 global recession, where museums take over large spaces within shopping malls, making beneficial use of empty space, drawing shoppers, and leveraging the foot traffic of the malls to bring more people into museums, exhibits and other educational venues.[15]

Pollution

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According to the International Energy Agency man-made greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by 3% in 2009, mainly as a result of the Great Recession. Previously emissions had been rising by around 3% per year. The drop in emissions is only the 4th to occur in 50 years.[16]

Unemployment

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Many houses, such as this one in Virginia, were foreclosed upon by banks and sold as a result of the Great Recession; note the label "Bank Owned" on the sign in front of the house.

The International Labour Organization (ILO) predicted that at least 20 million jobs will have been lost by the end of 2009 due to the crisis — mostly in "construction, real estate, financial services, and the auto sector" — bringing world unemployment above 200 million for the first time.[17] The number of unemployed people worldwide could increase by more than 50 million in 2009 as the global recession intensifies, the ILO has forecast.[18]

In December 2007, the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.9%.[19] By October 2009, the unemployment rate had risen to 10.1%.[20] A broader measure of unemployment (taking into account marginally attached workers, those employed part-time for economic reasons, and some (but not all) discouraged workers) was 16.3%.[21] In July 2009, fewer jobs were lost than expected, dipping the unemployment rate from 9.5% to 9.4%. Even fewer jobs were lost in August, 216,000, recorded as the lowest number of jobs since September 2008, but the unemployment rate rose to 9.7%. In October 2009, news reports announced that some employers who cut jobs due to the recession are beginning to hire them back. More recently, economists announced in January 2010 that economic growth in the U.S. resumed in the fourth quarter of 2009,[22] and some have predicted that limited job growth will begin in the spring of 2010.[23]

The average numbers for European Union nations are similar to the US ones. Some European countries have been hit by recession very hard, for instance Spain's unemployment rate reached 18.7% (37% for youths) in May 2009 — the highest in the eurozone.[24][25] In the UK, youths bore the brunt of unemployment during the recession.[26]

The rise of advanced economies in Brazil, India, and China increased the total global labor pool dramatically. Recent improvements in communication and education in those countries has allowed workers in those countries to compete more closely with workers in traditionally strong economies, such as the United States. This huge surge in labor supply provided downward pressure on wages and contributed to unemployment. So many people's professional careers have been down to frozen level at this time. There was also change at the management level of the several organisations and due to this there was a huge employee turnover. In brief it can also be described as the collapse of the entire management system of any organisation. It has also been noted that there was an increase in the NPAs of lending by banks.[citation needed]

Health

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In the United States, the public health workforce decreased by at least 40,000 jobs (about 1/5 of its workforce) between 2010 and 2013, following the Great Recession. As of 2023, it had not recovered.[27]

Although it has been argued that recessions can benefit health,[28] for example through reductions in road traffic accidents when car use reduces due to unemployment, there is a lot of evidence that the Great Recession did widespread damage to health. According to a study of 54 countries, there has been an increase in suicide deaths as a result of the recession. The study cites that there were an estimated 5,000 additional deaths resulting from suicide in the year 2009 alone.[29] In Iceland rates of low birth weight were found to increase after the start of the recession in 2008, although no differences in preterm birth were found.[30] In England, exposure to the Great Recession during pregnancy was associated with financial hardship, and both of these were associated with increased odds of continuing to smoke during pregnancy.[31]

Financial markets

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Main article: 2007–2008 financial crisis

For a time, major economies of the 21st century were believed to have begun a period of decreased volatility, which was sometimes dubbed The Great Moderation, because many economic variables appeared to have achieved relative stability. The return of commodity, stock market, and currency value volatility are regarded as indications that the concepts behind the Great Moderation were guided by false beliefs.[32]

January 2008 was an especially volatile month in world stock markets, with a surge in implied volatility measurements of the US-based S&P 500 index,[33] and a sharp decrease in non-U.S. stock market prices on Monday, January 21, 2008 (continuing to a lesser extent in some markets on January 22). Some headline writers and a general news columnist called January 21 "Black Monday" and referred to a "global shares crash,"[34][35] though the effects were quite different in different markets.

The effects of these events were also felt on the Shanghai Composite Index in China which lost 5.14 percent, most of this on financial stocks such as Ping An Insurance and China Life which lost 10 and 8.76 percent respectively.[36] Investors worried about the effect of a recession in the US economy would have on the Chinese economy. Citigroup estimates due to the number of exports from China to America a one percent drop in US economic growth would lead to a 1.3 percent drop in China's growth rate.

There were several large Monday declines in stock markets worldwide during 2008, including one in January, one in August, one in September, and another in early October. As of October 2008, stocks in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region had all fallen by about 30% since the beginning of the year.[37] The Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen about 37% since January 2008.[38]

The simultaneous multiple crises affecting the US financial system in mid-September 2008 caused large falls in markets both in the US and elsewhere. Numerous indicators of risk and of investor fear (the TED spread, Treasury yields, the dollar value of gold) set records.[39]

Russian markets, already falling due to declining oil prices and political tensions with the West, fell over 10% in one day, leading to a suspension of trading,[40] while other emerging markets also exhibited losses.[41]

On September 18, UK regulators announced a temporary ban on short-selling of financial stocks.[42] On September 19 the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) followed by placing a temporary ban of short-selling stocks of 799 specific financial institutions. In addition, the SEC made it easier for institutions to buy back shares of their institutions. The action is based on the view that short selling in a crisis market undermines confidence in financial institutions and erodes their stability.[43]

On September 22, the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) delayed opening by an hour[44] after a decision was made by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) to ban all short selling on the ASX.[45] This was revised slightly a few days later.[46]

As is often the case in times of financial turmoil and loss of confidence, investors turned to assets which they perceived as tangible or sustainable. The price of gold rose by 30% from middle of 2007 to end of 2008. A further shift in investors' preference towards assets like precious metals[47] or land[48][49] is discussed in the media.

In March 2009, Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman said that up to 45% of global wealth had been destroyed in little less than a year and a half.[50]

Travel

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According to Zagat's 2009 U.S. Hotels, Resorts & Spas survey, business travel has decreased in the past year as a result of the recession. 30% of travelers surveyed stated they travel less for business today while only 21% of travelers stated that they travel more.[51] Reasons for the decline in business travel include company travel policy changes, personal economics, economic uncertainty and high airline prices. Hotels are responding to the downturn by dropping rates, ramping up promotions and negotiating deals for both business travelers and tourists.[51][52]

According to the World Tourism Organization, international travel suffered a strong slowdown beginning in June 2008,[53] and this declining trend intensified during 2009 resulting in a reduction from 922 million international tourist arrivals in 2008 to 880 million visitors in 2009, representing a worldwide decline of 4%, and an estimated 6% decline in international tourism receipts.[54] The decline caused by the recession was further exacerbated in some countries due to the outbreak of the AH1N1 virus.[54]

Insurance

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A February 2009 study on the main British insurers showed that most of them do not plan to raise their insurance premiums for the year 2009, in spite of the prediction of a 20% raise made by The Daily Telegraph and The Daily Mirror. However, it is expected that the capital liquidity will become an issue and determine increases, having their capital tied up in investments yielding smaller dividends, corroborated with the £644 million underwriting losses suffered in 2007.[55]

Countries most affected

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The crisis affected all countries in some ways, but certain countries were vastly affected more than others. By measuring currency devaluation, equity market decline, and the rise in sovereign bond spreads, a picture of financial devastation emerges. Since these three indicators show financial weakness, taken together, they capture the impact of the crisis.[56] The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reports in its International Economics Bulletin that Ukraine, as well as Argentina and Jamaica, were the countries most deeply affected by the crisis.[56] Other severely affected countries were Romania,[57] Ireland, Russia, Mexico, Hungary, the Baltic states. By contrast, China, Japan, Brazil, India, Iran, Peru and Australia were "among the least affected."[56]

Gendered effects

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American popular media labeled the Great Recession the "mancession" because of the many male dominated industries affected (e.g., construction) although many more men were hired than women during the recovery period.[58] By the end of 2009 the unemployment rate for men was 10.7%, while women's unemployment peaked at 8.4%.[59] This trend of the "mancession" was seen in other countries as well; in 2008 605,000 of the 891,000 who lost their jobs in the United Kingdom were men.[60]

The stress of unemployment affects men and women differently. Some studies have concluded that men and blue-collar workers experience the most mental distress when they are involuntarily unemployed[61] This has been attributed to the greater structural vulnerability of blue collar workers in US economy as well as constructions of masculinity.[61] Men may feel pressure to fulfill their socially constructed role as "breadwinners" and may feel ashamed if they are not able to contribute financially to the household.[62][63]

A study of mental health data in America from directly after the 2007–2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession, however, found that women experienced more stress than men because they were more likely to be the financial managers of the household and therefore felt the impact of the recession on household budgets more.[64] In Greece women also reported poor mental health, more so than men, upon losing their jobs.[65] This has been attributed to higher rates of long term unemployment, poor housing and nutrition, debt, and discrimination, which all generally affect women more.[65][66][67]

References

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  1. ^ "The Recession and Recovery in Perspective". The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Archived from the original on 2019-11-16. Retrieved 2012-12-07.
  2. ^ "U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis". Bea.gov his wife. 2009-12-22. Archived from the original on 2010-04-07. Retrieved 2010-01-21.
  3. ^ Source: World trade Monitor Archived January 26, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  4. ^ Jones, Sam (2008-10-10). "A juddering halt to world trade". Ftalphaville.ft.com. Retrieved 2010-01-21.
  5. ^ "The collapse of manufacturing". Economist.com. 2009-02-19. Retrieved 2010-01-21.
  6. ^ Evans, Ambrose (2009-03-08). "Thanks to the Bank it's a crisis; in the eurozone it's a total catastrophe". London: Telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 2010-01-21.
  7. ^ A Global Retreat As Economies Dry Up. The Washington Post. March 5, 2009.
  8. ^ Economic Crisis Poses Threat To Global Stability. NPR. February 18, 2009·
  9. ^ China heads to Europe for a multi-billion trade deal. People's Daily Online. February 25, 2009.
  10. ^ Strange rise of Eastern neo-colonialism, The Times of India, January 20, 2008
  11. ^ Sovereign Wealth Funds Bail Out Major Banks, InvestorPlace Asia Archived December 11, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  12. ^ "Colonialism Goes Into Reverse Gear As The Libyan Government Bails Out Italy's UniCredit". Straightstocks.com. Retrieved 2010-01-21.
  13. ^ Chinese sovereign fund turning to natural resources. Reuters. February 19, 2009.
  14. ^ China, taking advantage of global recession, goes on a buying spree. The Christian Science Monitor. February 21, 2009
  15. ^ Scott, Eugene (2011-04-08). "Phoenix pop culture museum finds home in desert ridge". Arizona Republic. Retrieved 2012-05-15.
  16. ^ Vidal, John (6 October 2009). "Carbon emissions will fall 3% due to recession, say world energy analysts". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 2009-10-06.
  17. ^ "Financial crisis to cost 20 mn jobs: UN". Expressindia.com. Reuters. 2008-10-21. Archived from the original on April 26, 2009. Retrieved 2010-01-21.
  18. ^ Global unemployment heads towards 50 million, The Times, January 29, 2009
  19. ^ U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "The Employment Situation: January 2008", January 2008
  20. ^ Goodman, Peter S. (2009-11-07). "U.S. Unemployment Rate Hits 10.2%, Highest in 26 Years". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-07.
  21. ^ "Alternative measures of labor underutilization (U6, not seasonally adjusted)". Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Government. June 5, 2009. Retrieved 2009-06-19.
  22. ^ Rampell, Catherine. "Economy Grew at Vigorous Pace in Last Quarter." New York Times. January 29, 2010.
  23. ^ Irwin, Neil. "GDP Report Shows Strong Economic Growth." Washington Post. January 29, 2010.
  24. ^ Euro zone unemployment reaches 15 million. CBCNews.ca. July 2, 2009. [1]
  25. ^ The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking. Telegraph. July 4, 2009.
  26. ^ Bell, D. N. F.; Blanchflower, D. G. (16 November 2011). "Young people and the Great Recession". Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 27 (2): 241–267. doi:10.1093/oxrep/grr011. hdl:10419/52080. S2CID 16561669.
  27. ^ Leider, Jonathon P.; Yeager, Valerie A.; Kirkland, Chelsey; Krasna, Heather; Hare Bork, Rachel; Resnick, Beth (1 April 2023). "The State of the US Public Health Workforce: Ongoing Challenges and Future Directions". Annual Review of Public Health. 44 (1): annurev–publhealth–071421-032830. doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071421-032830. ISSN 0163-7525. PMID 36692395. S2CID 256192725. Retrieved 14 March 2023.
  28. ^ Ruhm, CJ (2000). "Are recessions good for your health?" (PDF). Q J Econ. 115 (2): 617–650. doi:10.1162/003355300554872. S2CID 51729569.
  29. ^ Chang, S.-S; Stuckler, D; Yip, P; Gunnell, D (2013). "Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: Time trend study in 54 countries". BMJ. 347: f5239. doi:10.1136/bmj.f5239. PMC 3776046. PMID 24046155.
  30. ^ Eiríksdóttir, VH (2013). "Low Birth Weight, Small for Gestational Age and Preterm Births before and after the Economic Collapse in Iceland: A Population Based Cohort Study". PLOS ONE. 8 (12): e80499. Bibcode:2013PLoSO...880499E. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0080499. PMC 3851132. PMID 24324602.
  31. ^ Uphoff, E (2018). "Using Birth Cohort Data to Assess the Impact of the UK 2008–2010 Economic Recession on Smoking During Pregnancy". Nicotine & Tobacco Research. 21 (8): 1021–1026. doi:10.1093/ntr/nty083. hdl:10454/16240. PMC 7053572. PMID 29741730.
  32. ^ "Volatility returns with a vengeance". Ft.com. 2008-10-27. Retrieved 2010-01-21.
  33. ^ Markets, Uncertain Times, The Economist, February 4, 2008
  34. ^ MacMahon, Peter (2008-01-22). "Market falls continue as £84bn is lost on Black Monday". The Scotsman. Johnston Press Digital Publishing. Retrieved 2008-01-25.
  35. ^ Zhixin, Dong (2008-01-21). "Black Monday for Chinese stocks, down 5%". China Daily. Archived from the original on January 28, 2008. Retrieved 2008-01-25.
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  37. ^ Paul Krugman. "Contagion, revisited" (PDF).
  38. ^ "Yahoo Finance Historical Data".
  39. ^ "Panic grips credit markets".
  40. ^ "Behind the Russian Stock Market Meltdown". Archived from the original on September 20, 2008.
  41. ^ Slater, Joanna (2008-09-17). "Markets Drop Around the World on Turmoil, Fears About Growth". The Wall Street Journal.
  42. ^ Short Selling Restriction
  43. ^ "SEC Halts Short Selling of Financial Stocks on 09-19-2008". Sec.gov. Retrieved 2010-01-21.
  44. ^ "ASX opens after delay". SBS World News. 2008-09-22. Archived from the original on 2008-09-25. Retrieved 2008-09-23.
  45. ^ Johnston, Eric (2008-09-22). "ASIC bans all short-selling". Melbourne: The Age (Fairfax Media). Retrieved 2008-09-23.
  46. ^ "ASIC issues new short selling guidance". Melbourne: The Age (Fairfax Media). 2008-09-25. Archived from the original on September 25, 2008. Retrieved 2008-09-26.
  47. ^ Hale, David (2009-01-05). "There is only one alternative to the dollar". Financial Times. Retrieved 2009-01-08.
  48. ^ Branford, Sue (2008-11-22). "Land Grab". guardian.co.uk. London. Retrieved 2009-01-08. investment banks and private equity (...) seeing land as a safe haven from the financial storm.
  49. ^ "The 2008 landgrab for food and financial security". grain.org (NGO). October 2008. Retrieved 2009-01-08.
  50. ^ Stephen Schwarzman says 45 per cent of global wealth written off by financial crisis. NEWS.com.au. March 11, 2009.
  51. ^ a b "ZAGAT'S 2009 U.S. Hotels, resorts, & spas survey finds more options available for cost-conscious travelers". Zagat. 2008-11-12. Archived from the original on May 2, 2009. Retrieved 2009-03-20.
  52. ^ World Tourism Organization (October 2008). "UNWTO World Tourism Barometer October 2008" (PDF). UNWTO. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-07-28. Retrieved 2008-11-17. Volume 6, Issue 3
  53. ^ "UNWTO World Tourism Barometer June 2008" (PDF). World Tourism Organization. June 2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 31, 2008. Retrieved 2010-03-20. Volume 6 No. 2
  54. ^ a b "UNWTO World Tourism Barometer January 2010" (PDF). World Tourism Organization. January 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-06-26. Retrieved 2010-03-20. Volume 8 No. 1
  55. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). www.abi.org.uk. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 October 2008. Retrieved 17 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  56. ^ a b c Financial Transmission of the Crisis: What’s the Lesson? Shimelse Ali, Uri Dadush, Lauren Falcao, "International Economics Bulletin, June 2009.
  57. ^ "Government's shock tactics for recession | European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions".
  58. ^ Luhby, Tammy. "Where have all the women's jobs gone?". Cnnmoney. CNN. Retrieved 23 April 2015.
  59. ^ Starr, Martha A (2013). "Gender, added-worker effects, and the 2007–2009 recession: Looking within the household". Review of Economics of the Household. 12 (2): 209–235. doi:10.1007/s11150-013-9181-1. S2CID 154166260.
  60. ^ McKay, Ailsa; Campbell, Jim; Thomson, Emily; Ross, Susanne (2013). "Economic Recession and Recovery in the UK: What's Gender Got to do with It?". Feminist Economics. 19 (3): 108–123. doi:10.1080/13545701.2013.808762. S2CID 153797657.
  61. ^ a b Paul, Karsten I; Moser, Klaus (2009). "Unemployment impairs mental health: Meta-analyses". Journal of Vocational Behavior. 74 (3): 264–282. doi:10.1016/j.jvb.2009.01.001.
  62. ^ Fukuda-Parr, Sakiko; Heintz, James; Seguino, Stephanie (2013). "Critical Perspectives on Financial and Economic Crises: Heterodox Macroeconomics Meets Feminist Economics". Feminist Economics. 19 (3): 4–31. doi:10.1080/13545701.2013.806990. S2CID 153579552.
  63. ^ Antonopoulos, Rania (2009). "The Current Economic and Financial Crisis: A Gender Perspective". doi:10.2139/ssrn.1402687. hdl:10419/31580. S2CID 154822217. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  64. ^ Heretick, Donna M. L. (January 2013). "Clinicians' reports on the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on mental health clients". Journal of Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences. 7 (1).
  65. ^ a b Drydakis, Nick (2015). "The effect of unemployment on self-reported health and mental health in Greece from 2008 to 2013: A longitudinal study before and during the financial crisis". Social Science & Medicine. 128: 43–51. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.12.025. hdl:10419/107534. PMID 25589031. S2CID 16329837.
  66. ^ European Commission (2010). "Urban Cities Facing the Crisis. Impact and Responses". European Commission.
  67. ^ World Health Organization (2011). Impact of Economic Crisis on Mental Health (PDF).[page needed]
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