2020 Missouri gubernatorial election
(Redirected from Missouri gubernatorial election, 2020)
The 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Parson ran for and was elected to a full term in office.[1] Parson was elected as lieutenant governor in 2016 but became governor on June 1, 2018, after incumbent Eric Greitens resigned under threat of impeachment by the state legislature. Parson declared his bid for a full term on September 8, 2019.[2] State Auditor Nicole Galloway, Missouri's only Democratic statewide officer and only female statewide officer, was the Democratic nominee and if elected, would have become Missouri's first female governor.
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| Turnout | 69.75%  | ||||||||||||||||
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   Parson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Galloway: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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In October 2020, The Washington Post identified this state election as one of eight whose outcomes could affect partisan balance during post-census redistricting.[3]
Despite most news agencies characterizing the race as only leaning Republican, Mike Parson went on to win the election by a landslide of 16.4%, widely outperforming all election polling as well as justifying the former swing state's trend towards the GOP. He even exceeded Donald Trump's statewide victory margin in the concurrent presidential election, which was actually greater than that in neighboring Kansas for the first time in 104 years. Galloway suffered the largest margin of defeat for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Missouri since Betty Hearnes' 29-point loss in 1988. The 1988 election was also the last election until this one in which Missouri elected a Republican for governor by double digits.
Republican primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Mike Parson, incumbent governor of Missouri[4][2] and former state senator
Eliminated in primary
edit- Saundra McDowell, U.S. Air Force veteran and Republican nominee for Missouri state auditor in 2018[5]
- Jim Neely, state representative from the 8th district[6]
- Raleigh Ritter, rancher and businessman[7]
Declined
edit- Jay Ashcroft, Missouri Secretary of State[8]
- Eric Greitens, former governor of Missouri[9][10]
- Tony Monetti, retired bomber pilot, assistant dean of aviation at University of Central Missouri, and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018[11]
Endorsements
editJim Neely
State officials
- Mike Moon, state representative from the 157th district[12]
- Bryan Spencer, state representative from the 63rd district[12]
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Parson |
Eric Greitens |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filing deadline, by which Greitens had not declared his candidacy | ||||||
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[13] | Jan 29–30, 2020 | 1,155 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri[14][A] | Jan 20–22, 2020 | 1,200 (LV) | – | 56% | 30% | 11% |
Results
edit
Parson
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Parson (incumbent) | 511,566 | 74.93% | |
| Republican | Saundra McDowell | 84,412 | 12.36% | |
| Republican | Jim Neely | 59,514 | 8.72% | |
| Republican | Raleigh Ritter | 27,264 | 3.99% | |
| Total votes | 682,756 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editNominee
editEliminated in primary
edit- Eric Morrison, community leader and pastor[17]
- Antoin Johnson[18]
- Jimmie Matthews[18]
- Robin Quaethem[18]
Declined
edit- Sly James, former mayor of Kansas City, Missouri[19]
- Jason Kander, former Missouri Secretary of State, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016, former candidate for Mayor of Kansas City in 2019[20]
- Claire McCaskill, former U.S. senator[21]
- Scott Sifton, state senator from the 1st district and former state representative from the 96th district (endorsed Galloway)[22]
Endorsements
editNicole Galloway
Federal politicians
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California and 2020 Democratic nominee for vice president[23]
Individuals
- Scott Sifton, state senator[22]
Organizations
Results
edit
Galloway
- >90%
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Nicole Galloway | 455,203 | 84.62% | |
| Democratic | Eric Morrison | 32,403 | 6.02% | |
| Democratic | Jimmie Matthews | 20,586 | 3.83% | |
| Democratic | Antoin Johnson | 20,254 | 3.77% | |
| Democratic | Robin Quaethem | 9,481 | 1.76% | |
| Total votes | 537,927 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
editLibertarian Party
edit
Nominee
edit- Rik Combs, U.S. Air Force veteran[18]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Rik Combs | 4,171 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 4,171 | 100.00% | ||
Green Party
editNominee
edit- Jerome Bauer[18]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Jerome Bauer | 862 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 862 | 100.00% | ||
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[28] | Lean R | October 23, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[29] | Lean R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Politico[31] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[32] | Likely R | October 28, 2020 |
| RCP[33] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| 270towin[34] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Polling
editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Parson (R) |
Nicole Galloway (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[35] | October 28–29, 2020 | 1,010 (LV) | ± 3% | 50% | 44% | 5%[b] |
| Cygnal (R)[36] | October 18–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 48% | 42% | 10%[c] |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[37] | October 14–15, 2020 | 1,010 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 43% | 6%[d] |
| YouGov[38] | September 24 – October 7, 2020 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 44% | 7%[e] |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[39][B] | September 28 – October 2, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 48% | – |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[40] | September 30 – October 1, 2020 | 980 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 44% | 5%[f] |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[41] | September 16–17, 2020 | 1,046 (LV) | ± 3% | 52% | 43% | 5%[g] |
| We Ask America[42] | September 1–3, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 54% | 41% | 5%[h] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[43] | August 26–28, 2020 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 51% | 36% | 13%[i] |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[44] | August 12–13, 2020 | 1,112 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 43% | 7%[j] |
| Saint Louis University[45] | June 23 – July 1, 2020 | 900 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 39% | 20%[k] |
| Garin-Hart-Yang/Missouri Scout (D)[46][B] | June 16–22, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[47] | June 10–11, 2020 | 1,152 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| We Ask America[48] | May 26–27, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 39% | 15%[l] |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[49] | April 28–29, 2020 | 1,356 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[50] | March 11–12, 2020 | 1,241 (LV) | – | 52% | 39% | 7% |
| American Viewpoint (R)[51][A] | January 20–22, 2020 | 1,200 (LV) | – | 54% | 36% | 7% |
| Human Agency/Missouri Scout[52] | December 20–24, 2019 | 415 (RV) | ± 5% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
| Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)[53] | November 17–20, 2019 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[54][C] | November 14–15, 2019 | 921 (LV) | – | 45% | 36% | 19% |
| Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)[55] | October 18–20, 2019 | 550 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 34% | 16% |
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[56] | October 9–10, 2019 | 1,451 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)[57] | September 16–18, 2019 | 825 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 36% | 19% |
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[58] | August 14–15, 2019 | 855 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[59] | June 26–27, 2019 | 960 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[60] | February 27, 2019 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling
Eric Greitens vs Nicole Galloway
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Eric Greitens (R) |
Nicole Galloway (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Viewpoint (R)[51][A] | January 20–22, 2020 | 1,200 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 7% |
Mike Parson vs Jason Kander
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Parson (R) |
Jason Kander (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[60] | February 27, 2019 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Mike Parson vs. Scott Sifton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Parson (R) |
Scott Sifton (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[60] | February 27, 2019 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 32% | 16% |
Endorsements
editNicole Galloway (D)
Federal politicians
- Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States and 2020 Democratic nominee for president[61]
- Emanuel Cleaver, U.S. representative from Missouri's 5th district[62]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California and 2020 Democratic nominee for vice president[23]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)[63]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts and former 2020 presidential candidate[64]
State officials
- Jay Nixon, former governor of Missouri[65]
Local officials
- Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020) and former 2020 presidential candidate[66]
- Quinton Lucas, mayor of Kansas City[67]
Individuals
- Andy Cohen, Bravo host[68]
- Scott Sifton, state senator from the 1st district[22]
Unions
Organizations
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Parson (incumbent) | 1,720,202 | 57.11% | +5.97% | |
| Democratic | Nicole Galloway | 1,225,771 | 40.69% | −4.88% | |
| Libertarian | Rik Combs | 49,067 | 1.63% | +0.16% | |
| Green | Jerome Bauer | 17,234 | 0.57% | −0.18% | |
| Write-in | 13 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 3,012,287 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 3,026,028 | 69.75% | |||
| Registered electors | 4,318,758 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
By congressional district
editParson won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[73]
| District | Parson | Galloway | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 19% | 78% | Lacy Clay (116th Congress) |
| Cori Bush (117th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 51% | 48% | Ann Wagner |
| 3rd | 66% | 31% | Blaine Luetkemeyer |
| 4th | 66% | 31% | Vicky Hartzler |
| 5th | 40% | 57% | Emanuel Cleaver |
| 6th | 64% | 34% | Sam Graves |
| 7th | 70% | 27% | Billy Long |
| 8th | 76% | 22% | Jason Smith |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ a b c d e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Combs (L) with 2%; Bauer (G) with 1%; Undecided with 2%
- ^ Combs (L) with 2%; Bauer (G) with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- ^ Combs (L) with 2%; Bauer (G) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ Undecided with 5%
- ^ Undecided with 5%
- ^ Undecided with 5%
- ^ Combs (L) with 3%; Bauer (G) with 2%; Undecided with 8%
- ^ Undecided with 7%
- ^ Undecided with 17%; "Other" with 3%
- ^ Undecided with 15%
Partisan clients
References
edit- ^ Clare Foran (May 29, 2018). "Embattled Missouri Governor Eric Greitens resigns amid scandals". CNN. Retrieved May 29, 2018.
- ^ a b Suntrup, Jack (September 8, 2019). "Missouri Gov. Mike Parson, a cattle-farming former sheriff, announces bid for 4-year term". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved September 8, 2019.
- ^ Phillips, Amber (October 2, 2020). "The state legislative battles to watch in 2020". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 2, 2020.
- ^ Parks, MaryAlice (May 30, 2018). "Missouri governor to be replaced by longtime traditional politician". ABC News. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
- ^ Gerber, Cameron (March 31, 2020). "Saundra McDowell files to run for governor, challenging Parson". The Missouri Times.
- ^ Erickson, Kurt (August 28, 2019). "State lawmaker announces plan to challenge Parson for GOP nomination for Missouri governor". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved August 30, 2019.
- ^ Governor, Raleigh Ritter For Missouri. "Raleigh Ritter". Raleigh Ritter For Missouri Governor.
- ^ Star, Jason Hancock and Lindsay Wise Kansas City. "Parson faces unrest among Missouri conservatives as he heads into 2020". Columbia Daily Tribune. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
- ^ Suntrup, Kurt Erickson, Jack (January 19, 2020). "A Greitens comeback? Supporters of the ex-Missouri governor are hopeful". STLtoday.com. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "Greitens 2020? Could former Gov. Greitens run for governor again?". KOMU.com. Archived from the original on February 19, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
- ^ Hancock, Jason [@J_Hancock] (April 8, 2019). ". @MonettiforMO went on @PeteMundo show this morning to announce he will not challenge @GovParsonMO in the GOP primary for governor in 2020. He'll dissolve his exploratory committee. #MoLeg #MoGOv" (Tweet). Retrieved April 8, 2019 – via Twitter.
- ^ a b "Jim Neely for Missouri Governor 2020". Jim Neely. Archived from the original on July 14, 2020. Retrieved July 16, 2020.
- ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
- ^ American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri
- ^ a b c d "State of Missouri - State of Missouri - Primary Election, August 04, 2020". Missouri Secretary of State.
- ^ Lieb, David A. (August 12, 2019). "Democrat Galloway launches Missouri gubernatorial campaign". Associated Press News. Retrieved August 12, 2019.
- ^ "Eric Morrison for Missouri |". Archived from the original on January 24, 2021. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
- ^ a b c d e "SOS, Missouri - Elections: Offices Filed in Candidate Filing". s1.sos.mo.gov.
- ^ Rosenbaum, Jason (December 4, 2018). "New Missouri Democratic vice chair says the party can attract both urban and rural voters". KSMU. Retrieved December 11, 2018.
- ^ Salter, Jim; Stafford, Margaret (July 28, 2019). "Jason Kander is back after quietly working through PTSD". Military Times. Associated Press. Retrieved August 6, 2019.
- ^ Raasch, Chuck (December 12, 2018). "McCaskill: I'll never run again, but I'll stay involved in politics". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved February 27, 2019.
- ^ a b c Suntrup, Jack (July 2, 2019). "Missouri lawmaker from Affton who considered run for governor backs Democratic auditor instead". stltoday.com. Retrieved July 2, 2019.
- ^ a b "Show-Me Senator Kamala Harris Sending Support To Missouri Lady Candidates". May 23, 2020. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
- ^ a b "State & Local". 3.14 Action. Archived from the original on June 15, 2020. Retrieved June 15, 2020.
- ^ a b Schriock, Stephanie (November 19, 2019). "EMILY's List Endorses Nicole Galloway for Missouri Governor". emilyslist.org. EMILY's List.
- ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". NWPC. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
- ^ a b Rodríguez, Yamelsie; Hill, Brandon (November 7, 2019). "Planned Parenthood Advocates and Votes Endorse Reproductive Health Champion Nicole Galloway for Missouri Governor". plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes; Advocates of Planned Parenthood of the St. Louis Region and Southwest Missouri. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Governor Race Ratings for October 23, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Gubernatorial Ratings". insideelections.com. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Gubernatorial race ratings". Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "We rated every gubernatorial race in 2020. Here's who we think will win". Politico. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 5, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. June 13, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Gubernatorial Elections Map". 270towin.
- ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
- ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
- ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
- ^ We Ask America [permanent dead link]
- ^ Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
- ^ Saint Louis University Archived July 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Garin-Hart-Yang/Missouri Scout (D)
- ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
- ^ We Ask America Archived June 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
- ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
- ^ a b American Viewpoint (R)
- ^ Human Agency/Missouri Scout
- ^ Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)
- ^ Remington/Missouri Scout (R)
- ^ Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)
- ^ Remington/Missouri Scout (R)
- ^ Remington/Missouri Scout (R)
- ^ a b c Remington/Missouri Scout (R)
- ^ "Biden endorses Nicole Galloway for Missouri governor. Here's why it matters". The Kansas City Star.
- ^ "Nicole Galloway for Missouri". Nicole Galloway for Missouri. Archived from the original on October 17, 2020. Retrieved October 17, 2020.
- ^ "Second Wave of 2020 Endorsements". Medium. September 25, 2020.
- ^ "Nicole Galloway Tops Week of Momentum with Endorsement From Sen. Elizabeth Warren". Democratic Governors Association. July 10, 2020.
- ^ "Former Missouri Governor Jay Nixon hopeful that Galloway will unseat his successor in November election". October 29, 2020.
- ^ "Join Pete Buttigeig in supporting Nicole Galloway!". ActBlue.
- ^ "KC mayor endorses Galloway over Parson for Missouri governor". The Kansas City Star. October 12, 2020.
- ^ "Nicole Galloway, CPA on Instagram: "You won't wanna miss this: Join me, @bravoandy, @karliekloss, and @derekblasberg on Monday for a virtual grassroots fundraiser for our…"". Instagram. Archived from the original on December 23, 2021. Retrieved October 19, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Labor Endorsed Candidates". moaflcio.org. July 14, 2020.
- ^ Gerber, Cameron (July 23, 2020). "Galloway endorsed by national gun violence prevention group". The Missouri Times.
- ^ "All Results State of Missouri - State of Missouri - General Election, November 03, 2020". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
- ^ "Statistiques" (PDF). www.sos.mo.gov. Retrieved December 18, 2020..
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
Further reading
edit- Amber Phillips (October 2, 2020), "The state legislative battles to watch in 2020", Washingtonpost.com,
Missouri governor's race
. (About redistricting).
External links
editOfficial campaign websites