Talk:Technical analysis: Difference between revisions

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Pseudoscience: it's everywhere
Pseudoscience: and quants
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[[User:Smallbones|Smallbones]] ([[User talk:Smallbones|talk]]) 19:48, 15 April 2008 (UTC)
 
: Smallbones, what do you think half of quant is? It is TA pure and simple, except done with much larger computers and by people with PhDs. Ask them how they decide when to buy and sell. They'll tell you when some moving average crosses another moving average. Straight out of the TA toolbox. What is different about quant is that they sometimes apply (a non-efficient market) model first to how to price a security, and then use TA to figure out if it is rich or cheap. One favorite quant strategy is to sell the stocks that rose the most and buy the ones that fell the most (called stat/arb to keep Wikipedia editors from saying it is voodoo I guess). Classic TA relative strength analysis on a larger scale. Sometimes multi-factor models are used to help selections, sometimes they're not. It would be 100% correct to say TA is part of the quant's toolbox. I actually spoke to a couple of quants last night at the JOIM conference I was at, and the guys laughed when I said that people think TA does not work. Quant models include technical factors in their models (along with fundamental factors too).
 
: To be honest, this is not the "new" TA. People have been writing trading systems, using indicators (price, volume, open interest transformations) since the 1960s, and I would guess that is a huge (maybe the largest) part of TA now. Anybody worth their salt focuses on this more than the patterns IMO (if I was hiring technicians, they'd need to be programmers, understand statistics, Monte Carlo simulations, multi-factor models, etc). The only way I would care about the patterns is if they could program pattern recognition software (others have and claim to find value in some patterns, but I am not convinced that we are good enough at computer-recognition of complex patterns for that to work). I started in TA in the 1980s. I don't think I even could recognize a pattern for a while after I started, because I never looked at them. All I did was write trading systems -- at least until I discovered Elliott Wave (which is a whole other story).[[User:Sposer|Sposer]] ([[User talk:Sposer|talk]]) 20:51, 15 April 2008 (UTC)
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