Introduction
Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rare disease characterised by remodelling of the distal pulmonary vasculature and is ultimately fatal.1 2 Over the past two decades, numerous randomised controlled trials have been performed, leading to the approval of compounds acting on three pathways of PAH pathobiology.1 2 The ability to _target the nitric oxide, endothelin and prostacyclin pathways has allowed the development of tailored treatment approaches,1 2 resulting in improved patient outcomes.3 4 Despite these advances, prognosis remains poor for patients with PAH. In order to optimise patient management, the current 2015 European Society of Cardiology (ESC)/European Respiratory Society (ERS) PH Guidelines advocate for an approach that includes multiparametric risk stratification where patients are classified based on their disease severity. In this approach, prognostic clinical, exercise, biochemical, imaging and haemodynamic parameters are used to characterise patients as low risk, intermediate risk or high risk according to 1-year risk of mortality.1 2 The parameters were derived from observational research including the French registry risk equation5 and the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-term PAH Disease Managment (REVEAL) risk score.6–9 In addition, the specific thresholds employed are supported by post hoc analyses of recent large randomised controlled trials.10–12
Risk stratification in PAH patients based on the prognostic parameters outlined in the 2015 ESC/ERS PH guidelines has been validated recently in three European registries.13–17 These analyses showed that PAH patients could be stratified into different mortality-risk groups at baseline and at first follow-up using a number of the prognostic parameters described in the guidelines.13–16 For each registry, there were differences in the patients evaluated, the prognostic parameters considered, and the specific methods used to stratify patients. The Swedish and the Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) registries assessed cohorts of newly diagnosed PAH patients comprising idiopathic PAH (IPAH), connective-tissue-disease-associated PAH (CTD-PAH) and congenital-heart-disease-associated-PAH (CHD-PAH).14 15 These registries assigned scores for low (score=1), intermediate (score=2) and high (score=3) risk of 1-year mortality by calculating the mean score for up to eight parameters.14–16 The limitation of this approach in evaluating the individual risk profile is based on the arbitrary attribution of the same scores to all the variables and on the final average value, which may be the result of parameters from all risks groups; moreover it is not a simple tool to use at the patient’s bedside without a calculator. The French Pulmonary Hypertension Registry (FPHR) stratified IPAH13 and CTD-PAH16 patients based on the number of low-risk criteria present. A greater number of low risk criteria, 0–4 or 0–3 depending on the parameters assessed, was indicative of lower mortality risk.13 16 The use of few parameters is attractive and the focus on low risk is aspirational, however, applying this approach in clinical practice may be problematic as the majority of PAH patients are unfortunately at intermediate risk and it may be important to differentiate these patients from the high-risk patients.
We performed retrospective analyses in a prospective PAH patient registry and included assessment of the overall PAH population, as well as assessment within specific aetiologies, including CTD-PAH and CHD-PAH. Patients were treated according to ESC/ERS PH guidelines.1 2 18–20 The purpose of our study was to evaluate whether a pragmatic approach based on four criteria could be used to differentiate between patients with low risk, intermediate risk and high risk of death. Our approach is based on the six parameters with highest prognostic relevance as assessed in recent registry analyses13–16: WHO functional class (WHO FC), 6 min walk distance (6MWD), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP)/BNP or right atrial pressure (RAP) and cardiac index (CI) or mixed venous oxygen saturation (SvO2).