Objectives: This study presents a retrospective study aimed to analyze the facial features at each stage of surgical-orthodontic treatment for skeletal class III malocclusion, and predict the changes in the lips after treatment.

Materials and methods: There were 49 skeletal class III malocclusion patients treated with bimaxillary surgery and orthodontic treatment enrolled in this study. Lateral cephalograms were obtained before treatment (T0), 1 month before surgery (T1), 1 month after surgery (T2), and after debonding (T3) for cephalometric measurements. After the measurement of the required variables, paired t-test, Pearson's correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression were performed using SPSS 19.0.

Results: The main factors associated with changes in the upper lip included ΔUIE-V, ΔA-V, ΔU1A-V, and ΔL1A-V, and those associated with changes in the lower lip included ΔLIE-V, ΔL1A-V, ΔB-V, ΔPog-V, and Δfacial angle. The predicted regression equation for the horizontal change in the upper lip was represented as ΔUL-vertical reference line (VRL) = 9.430 + 0.779 (ΔUIE-VRL) - 0.542(VULT) (P < 0.05) with a mean error of 1.04 mm; the corresponding equation for the lower lip was ΔLL-VRL = -1.670 + 0.530 (ΔB-VRL) + 0.360 (Ls-E) + 0.393 (ΔLIE-VRL) (P < 0.05), with a mean error of 1.51 mm.

Conclusions: This study explored the relationship between orthognathic surgery and changes in the lips and obtained the predictive equations of lip position after treatment by using multiple linear regression, which likely offers a reference for prediction of soft tissue changes before surgical-orthodontic treatment in patients with skeletal class III malocclusion.

Clinical relevance: The findings can help dentists to rapidly predict the lip changes after surgical-orthodontic treatment in patients with skeletal class III malocclusion. The study has been registered with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registration (No: ChiCTR1800017694).