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. 2024 Nov 7;14(1):27031.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-77002-8.

Floods of Egypt's Nile in the 21st century

Ahmed Badawy  1   2 , Mohamed Sultan  3 , Karem Abdelmohsen  1   4 , Eugene Yan  5 , Hesham Elhaddad  1 , Adam Milewski  6 , Hugo E Torres-Uribe  5
Affiliations

Floods of Egypt's Nile in the 21st century

Ahmed Badawy et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Extreme precipitation and flooding events are rising globally, necessitating a thorough understanding and sustainable management of water resources. One such setting is the Nile River's source areas, where high precipitation has led to the filling of Lake Nasser (LN) twice (1998-2003; 2019-2022) in the last two decades and the diversion of overflow to depressions west of the Nile, where it is lost mainly to evaporation. Using temporal satellite-based data, climate models, and continuous rainfall-runoff models, we identified the primary contributor to increased runoff that reached LN in the past two decades and assessed the impact of climate change on the LN's runoff throughout the twenty-first century. Findings include: (1) the Blue Nile subbasin (BNS) is the primary contributor to increased downstream runoff, (2) the BNS runoff was simulated in the twenty-first century using a calibrated (1965-1992) rainfall-runoff model with global circulation models (GCMs), CCSM4, HadGEM3, and GFDL-CM4.0, projections as model inputs, (3) the extreme value analysis for projected runoff driven by GCMs' output indicates extreme floods are more severe in the twenty-first century, (4) one adaptation for the projected twenty-first century increase in precipitation (25-39%) and flood (2%-20%) extremes is to recharge Egypt's fossil aquifers during high flood years.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
(a) Location map of the Nile Basin and its White Nile subbasin (WNS), Blue Nile subbasin (BNS), and Atbara Subbasin (AS), (b) enlargement of the areas covered by the upper red box covering Lake Nasser (LN) and Tushka Lakes (TLs), (c) enlargement of the areas covered by the lower red box showing the locations of three-gauge stations at the outlets of the WNS, BNS, and AS.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
(a) Temporal Landsat images (1998/2003), (b) Temporal Sentinel-2 images (2019/2022) showing progressive filling of the Tushka Lakes (TLs) by excess Lake Nasser (LN) waters.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Comparison between the monthly time series of the GRACETWS and GPCP precipitation over the Nile River Subbasins. (a) WNS (b), BNS, and (c) AS. The gap area shows the missing data between the GRACE and GRACE-FO mission from July 2017 to May 2018.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Monthly observed and simulated stream flow hydrographs for (a) the calibration period (1965–1992) (b) the validation period (1993–2000) at the Khartoum gauge station.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Comparison of average monthly (a) maximum temperature, (b) solar radiation, (c) wind speed, (d) relative humidity, and (e) precipitation extracted from CCSM4, CESM1-CAM5, CFSR and GPCP datasets over the Blue Nile subbasin from 2006 to 2022.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Comparison between observed and predicted flow rates from continuous rainfall-runoff model at the Khartoum gauge station in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries based on the RCP4.5 pathway from the selected three GCMs. (a) observed flow rates during the twentieth century. (b) predicted flow rates during the twenty-first century based on the CCSM4 model parameters. (c) predicted flow rates during the twenty-first century based on the HadGEM3 model parameters. d) predicted flow rates during the twenty-first century based on the GFDL-CM4.0 model parameters.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Predicted precipitation intensities with GLO distributions for extremes at return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries under (a) RCP 4.5 and (b) RCP 8.5 scenarios. The uncertainties of precipitation predictions for the twenty-first century are quantified by 500 GLO distribution curves (grey lines), and the upper and lower bounds (red and blue dashed lines) are defined by 95th and 5th percentiles, respectively.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Predicted peak stream flow extremes with LP3 distributions at return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries under (a) RCP 4.5 and (b) RCP 8.5 scenarios. The uncertainties of peak stream flow predictions for the twenty-first century are quantified by 500 LP3 distribution curves (grey lines), and the upper and lower bounds (red and blue dash lines) are defined by 95th and 5th percentiles, respectively.
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