Purpose: The optimal management of locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has not been established. While combined-modality treatments have been shown to increase the survival of patients with this illness, the appropriate balance between the benefit of increased quantity of life and the quality-of-life costs of the more toxic treatment combinations remains unresolved. Decision analysis has been promoted as useful when medical decisions must be made under conditions of uncertainty. We consider the potential of this method to guide therapy in locally advanced NSCLC.

Methods: We developed two types of decision models that addressed the choice between radiation alone and combined chemotherapy-radiation therapy in locally advanced NSCLC. The models were constructed using the principles of decision analysis.

Results: The models successfully replicated results of relevant clinical trials published in the literature. The analyses of both models showed that the treatment decision was sensitive to patients' values, despite significant increases in survival rates. The models clarified a need for further validation of the three fundamental components: structuring the decision, determining the probabilities of events, and assigning utilities to treatment outcomes.

Conclusion: In the setting of NSCLC, the models suggest that quality-of-life considerations are important in the treatment choice. Further research is required to identify the health states critical to the decision, the probabilities for occurrence of these health states, and valid measures of their utility.