doi: 10.1177/0272989X9701700203.
Primer on medical decision analysis: Part 3--Estimating probabilities and utilities
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- PMID: 9107608
- DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9701700203
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Primer on medical decision analysis: Part 3--Estimating probabilities and utilities
Med Decis Making.
1997 Apr-Jun.
Abstract
This paper describes how to estimate probabilities and outcome values for decision trees. Probabilities are usually derived from published studies, but occasionally are derived from existing databases, primary data collection, or expert judgment. Outcome values represent quantitative estimates of the desirability of the outcome states, and are often expressed as utility values between 0 and 1. Utility values for different health states can be derived from the published literature, from direct measurement in appropriate subjects, or from expert opinion. Methods for assigning utilities to complex outcome states are described, and the concept of quality-adjusted life years is introduced.
Comment in
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Producing informed consumers and users of decision analysis.Med Decis Making. 1998 Apr-Jun;18(2):237-8. doi: 10.1177/0272989X9801800214. Med Decis Making. 1998. PMID: 9566458 No abstract available.
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