Mariam Zuhaib/AP

Jennifer Gay, a TikTok content creator, sits outside the United States Capitol, April 23, 2024, in Washington. Congress passed a law to force TikTok’s China-based company to sell the social media platform by Jan. 19, 2025. The Supreme Court hears arguments Jan. 10 on whether that constitutes a violation of free speech.

Congress doesn’t agree on much these days. One thing it does, however, is that one of the most popular social media apps in the United States is a serious threat to national security.

On Friday, the Supreme Court will begin to weigh in. In a case that has reached them at breakneck speed, the justices will hear oral arguments concerning a federal law that puts a modern twist on a classic challenge: balancing protecting the public with protecting civil liberties.

In 2024, the federal government passed a law that could result in TikTok – a short-video social media platform with 1 billion users around the world – being banned in the U.S. TikTok is owned by a company headquartered in Beijing, and U.S. authorities claim that the app is beholden to the Chinese Communist Party and is thus a potential vector for foreign interference.

ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, disputes all these claims. Furthermore, the company is arguing that the law – titled the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act – violates the First Amendment.

The high court has paid increasing attention to how laws and the U.S. Constitution apply in the internet age. But this case, TikTok v. Garland, represents the most high-profile of those cases to date, experts say. How the justices will resolve the case is unclear, but the implications could be profound.

“It’s a very significant case historically in terms of our First Amendment jurisprudence,” says Alex Alben, a lecturer at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Law.

“The government is not seeking to ban a particular story, but to ban an entire platform,” he adds. “That is a very significant departure from American law.”

How did we get here?

Very quickly.

ByteDance worked for years to allay the government’s concerns and ensure TikTok in the U.S. is protected from Chinese interference, a multibillion-dollar effort called Project Texas. However, Congress decided in April that the app needed to be banned.

Jose Luis Magana/AP

TikTok content creators Talia Cadet (left) and Paul Tran leave the federal courthouse in Washington, Sept. 16, 2024, after a hearing on TikTok's lawsuit against the federal government. The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the case Jan. 10, 2025.

In December, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the lawsuit brought by ByteDance and a group of TikTok users. The court also put the case on an expedited timeline, hearing arguments just three weeks after taking it.

The fast track is due to certain provisions in the law. The law held that TikTok could continue to operate in the U.S. so long as ByteDance sold its American operations to a buyer approved by the government. The law set a clock of 270 days for that sale to happen. The company has yet to find a buyer, and the Jan. 19 deadline is looming.

Per another provision, the lawsuit proceeded straight to the federal appeals court in Washington, D.C., which last month sided with the government. A three-judge panel held that the government’s national security interest was compelling enough to justify the law. ByteDance appealed to the high court.

What are the parties arguing now?

The case before the Supreme Court focuses squarely on that First Amendment question. The answer to that question will likely depend on the “tier of scrutiny” the justices use to assess the TikTok law.

Statutes that could restrict free speech are generally supposed to receive strict scrutiny, meaning the law must be “narrowly tailored” and motivated by a “compelling” government interest. In U.S. history, only three laws restricting speech have survived strict scrutiny at the high court. The D.C. Circuit, however, applied intermediate scrutiny to the TikTok law, meaning the law only had to further an “important” government interest.

The level of scrutiny is especially relevant here. ByteDance, and some legal experts, argue the government’s national security concerns about TikTok are questionable at best.

The U.S. government claims that the Chinese government could use the app to spread misinformation that potentially destabilizes the country. Beijing also, Washington alleges, could use the app to access the personal data of millions of Americans. China has committed several major hacks of U.S. entities recently, but the U.S. also concedes that there is no evidence the Chinese government has done that with TikTok – yet.

“The specter of threats from China cannot obscure the threat that the [law] itself ... pose[s] to all Americans,” wrote ByteDance in its brief to the court.

The law “does not come close to the only three laws this Court has held satisfy” strict scrutiny, the company added. “Congress’s unprecedented attempt to single out [TikTok] is profoundly unconstitutional.”

The government counters that the evidence Congress reviewed in crafting the TikTok statute proved the government’s “compelling” interest. But it also argues – and the D.C. Circuit agreed – that the law doesn’t need to survive strict scrutiny because it doesn’t restrict free speech at all.

Nathan Howard/Reuters/File

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew testifies during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on online child sexual exploitation Jan. 31, 2024. TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, must sell it or face a ban in the United States, according to a 2024 law passed by Congress.

A foreign-owned company doesn’t have First Amendment rights, the government claims. Similarly, banning TikTok would not ban TikTok users from exercising free speech anywhere else online.

“Congress did not impose any restriction on speech, much less one based on viewpoint or content,” the government wrote in its brief.

The law, it added, “fits comfortably within a long tradition of regulation of foreign ownership of domestic channels of communication and other critical infrastructure.”

What are the potential implications here?

There is one clear potential implication: If the Supreme Court upholds the TikTok law, then the platform will become inaccessible to Americans. ByteDance could find a buyer in the coming days, but it’s unclear if the company wants to sell, according to recent reports.

This would be historic. The U.S. government has never banned an entire medium of communication, according to Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the University of California, Berkeley School of Law. And in a world where globalization has helped foreign ownership of businesses, including news organizations, proliferate, experts say that upholding the TikTok law would set a troubling precedent.

Major media entities like Fox News and The New York Times have foreign owners. Just last week, President Joe Biden blocked a company from Japan, a longtime ally, from buying U.S. Steel because it would “impair” national security.

“The impacts of this case are more likely to be felt as we see [more] regulations restricting trade [and] structuring commerce in the interest of national security,” says Gus Hurwitz, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania Carey School of Law.

Some experts contend that upholding the TikTok law would have relatively minor implications (beyond the ejection of TikTok from U.S. cellphones).

There are other social media platforms, and the specificities of the TikTok case could allow the court to “make this a specific-to-China kind of issue,” says Jane Bambauer, a professor at the University of Florida Levin College of Law. That would preserve the rest of the court’s First Amendment jurisprudence.

But critics of the law argue that the law ignores a key tenet of the United States’ free speech tradition: trust in the American people.

China may use TikTok to spread misinformation and further divide the country. But many studies show that social media algorithms rarely change users’ views or beliefs. Instead, algorithms tend to reinforce existing beliefs by funneling users to content they already agree with.

Rather than banning the app, skeptics say that courts should – and typically do – err in favor of trusting them to think independently and critically.

“When we’re not sure, we allow people who are voluntarily receiving information to keep receiving information, even when it’s from a hostile government,” says Professor Bambauer. “That’s the gamble the open society takes.”

Francine Kiefer/The Christian Science Monitor

The Eaton Fire glows from the hill behind Monitor correspondent Francine Kiefer's driveway in Pasadena, California, on Tuesday evening, Jan. 7, 2025.

Living in California, I’ve read a lot about disaster preparedness, seen it covered on TV, and even reported on it for my work as the Monitor’s West Coast correspondent. But I’ve never had to evacuate – until this week’s devastating wildfires in Greater Los Angeles.

The glow of the Eaton Fire in the Pasadena area lit up our backyard as my husband and I pulled out of our driveway Tuesday evening, our ancient Toyota Highlander loaded with bankers boxes of documents, electronics, overnight bags, and a few last-minute items we thought might come in handy.

We drove into the smoky, angst-filled night, but little did I know that we were also heading straight into the kindness of strangers and friends – and a new normal in which a wildfire app would make a big difference.

I would describe myself as generally organized, but not as prepared as the preparedness checklists advise. I have a go bag in my closet with a week’s worth of clothing and toiletries, but my list of other must-take items is in my head. We keep a big package of bottled waters. Still, I’ve given up rotating extra food supplies and just make sure we’re well stocked and have lots of snack bars around. I have extra drinking water and an emergency kit in my car – but not a blanket or food. Flashlights are in our nightstands, slip-on shoes by our bedside.

Fortunately, local news outlets had well telegraphed the potential for fierce winds and fires. We had time to up our preparedness game – for instance, bringing loose items from our patio inside and buying a backup battery pack for our cellphones and laptops. Where we fell flat, friends, neighbors, and professionals made up for our deficit, as often happens when communities pull together in a disaster.

Francine Kiefer/The Christian Science Monitor

Mark Sheehan, husband of Monitor correspondent Francine Kiefer, packs up after a night of evacuation at the Courtyard Marriott in Monrovia, California, Jan. 8, 2025. As the Eaton Fire continued to move closer, the couple relocated to a friend's house farther away.

So, thank you, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, for recommending the Watch Duty fire app in your webinar Monday.

A fire app points our way

I had signed up for government emergency alerts after the Bobcat Fire of 2020 cloaked our neighborhood in smoke. But those various alerts never seem to notify my phone when momentous things happen. Instead, I relied heavily on Watch Duty, an app run by the Santa Rosa-based nonprofit Sherwood Forestry Service that sends out alerts of nearby fires and updates on conditions and evacuation orders.

Now I know that we live in PAS-E020 – an important thing because orders are given by zone identification.

It was the Watch Duty app that first alerted me to the Pacific Palisades Fire in western Los Angeles on Tuesday. That’s when we decided that it would be a good idea to buy some bankers boxes and put our mental checklist down on paper – just in case.

That moment arrived after dinner at 6:23 p.m. when Watch Duty first sounded the alarm on the Eaton Fire. Eaton Canyon is a popular hiking destination just a short distance from our house in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains, in Pasadena. We assembled the boxes and packed the items from our now-written checklist – passports, car titles, headlamps, stuff like that.

Even though we were only under an evacuation warning, we could see the orange glow of a rapidly progressing fire. Winds were howling in the night. A neighbor knocked on our door to tell us about the fire. But where to evacuate?

Well, thanks be to friends we consulted who have lived here longer than we have. They offered to let us shelter with them. But we all reside in the same general area, so that seemed unwise. Then we talked about hotels and decided that if we left early enough, we could probably find a room and avoid the clogged roads of evacuation.

Francine Kiefer/The Christian Science Monitor

A Christmas wreath hangs on the gate to a home destroyed by the Eaton Fire in the Upper Hastings Ranch neighborhood of Pasadena, California, as seen Jan. 8, 2025. This is the same house featured in a December Monitor story about Christmas lights. At least 30 homes in the neighborhood were destroyed in the fire.

The neighborhood just up the hill quickly came under a mandatory evacuation order, and soon our immediate neighbors were calling and texting, asking questions and sharing information. We left first, taping a sign to our front door, telling firefighters that we had evacuated and providing our phone number.

A hotel as refuge

We settled on a hotel only as we were heading out, and I made the reservation as my husband, Mark, slowly drove past branches and other debris on the road, through dark neighborhoods where the power was out. When we arrived at the Courtyard Marriott in Monrovia, the notorious Santa Ana winds, the same ones pushing the flames, were so bad they nearly knocked me over in the parking lot.

God bless the staff at that Marriott. Within 10 minutes of our arrival, the power went out. A long line stretched in front of the reception desk, which could no longer process anyone because the hotel’s system was down. Anxious evacuees stood in the lobby lit by dim emergency power – their pets, bags, and children in tow. But not once did I hear an exasperated word from the staff – quite the opposite.

Kristi Griffith, who works for the hotel’s management company, was a fountain of good cheer and patience. She handed out bottled water and encouraged folks to spread out and relax at the restaurant or in the comfy lobby furniture. She gave a number to each party so no one would lose their place in line when the system came back up.

It never did, but eventually, the staff found a work-around, and before I knew it, hotel manager Joseph Valencia had called our number and we were being escorted by another worker, the ever-helpful Erica Perez, and a bellhop onto an elevator powered by the hotel’s emergency backup. Ms. Perez let us into a room with no lights, air, or heat, but that’s exactly why we had headlamps and our backup cellphone charger. She suggested we crack our door open to help with the ventilation.

We managed a few hours’ sleep and awoke early to my phone binging that the Eton Fire had advanced to Monrovia, where a mandatory evacuation was now underway. But because there was no Wi-Fi, the alert wouldn’t fully load. We went downstairs for a visual check of the fire – and breakfast. It was still dark out. The staff had just arrived in the dining room, which was not open yet. All of us were astonished by the scene outside the window: Flames from the not-too-distant mountains had climbed down almost to the valley floor.

Francine Kiefer/The Christian Science Monitor

In early December, this photo of a home in the Upper Hastings Ranch neighborhood in Greater Los Angeles was featured in a Monitor story about the neighborhood's annual holiday lights tour, Dec. 9, 2024.

Francine Kiefer/The Christian Science Monitor

The home of Hourig Baghdadlian in the Upper Hastings Ranch neighborhood of Pasadena, California, still stands after the Eaton Fire destroyed at least 30 homes in her neighborhood, as seen Jan. 8, 2025. Monitor correspondent Francine Kiefer wrote in December about this house and neighborhood as a local attraction for Christmas lights.

Should we evacuate again? If so, where? Mark and I discussed it over bowls of dried cereal and a cup of milk, which one of the workers had kindly brought us. We thought of a few more distant, guaranteed safe destinations, but the worker mentioned that the highways on her commute in were clogged, and there were widespread power outages. At the same time, we wanted to stay close to home to keep an eye on the house. It’s a mentally wearing effort, this business of trying to find a safe evacuation place in a near information blackout.

In the end, we decided to leave the Marriott and head to a friend who lived farther south in the San Gabriel Valley, away from the flames. We had raised this possibility through texts late into the night, but now my texts and calls were not going through. We would just have to take her at her word and show up!

As a rosy dawn broke, we again loaded up the Highlander. The wind had lessened, but the flames and smoke looked and smelled ominous. But not long after, we arrived at our friend’s home and were received with open arms, hot tea, and tangerines from her backyard tree. No smoke here. Literally blue skies – though monster winds had toppled several trees in the neighborhood.

The fire’s toll

Later that day, our neighbor texted to say he had returned to our street. “The neighborhood is spared and the power is still on! Hallelujah.” What a relief. I truly had not expected our house to survive, given the closeness of the fire and the winds. Sadly, many homes in our area did not.

After we got home, Mark and I drove just up the hill to inquire about the Baghdadlian residence. I had written in December about this house and others in the Upper Hastings Ranch neighborhood because of their spectacular holiday lights displays.

The “Merry Christmas” sign hung cockeyed from the front gate, and the giant Santa and his sleigh looked sooty. But the house was still standing. Unfortunately, the house next door had burned to the ground, leaving behind a chimney, collapsed garage, and battered wreath. A broken gas line spewed flames.

In all, we counted at least 30 houses in the neighborhood that were utterly consumed by the fire. So very heartbreaking. Such staggering loss. As we talked with one of the Baghdadlian neighbors, a car pulled up. A woman leaned out the window and said she was a family friend. She had served on a board with one of them. Were they safe? Yes, the neighbor said. Everyone had safely evacuated.

The woman said she was glad and drove off. Safety, which includes people looking out for each other, is the main thing. In the end, it’s really the only thing.

Editor's note: Since publication, opposition allies say prominent leader María Corina Machado was arrested by government officials in Caracas before her release late Thursday afternoon, Jan. 9.

In black and white and in color; printed on sheafs of paper and staring down from television screens in public spaces – the face of Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in Venezuela’s hotly contested presidential election last summer is plastered across Venezuela this month. He has become one of Venezuela’s “most wanted” ahead of tomorrow’s presidential inauguration, carrying a $100,000 bounty on his head.

The government is preparing to swear in President Nicolás Maduro for his third term in office Friday. His self-proclaimed victory following the July 28, 2024, election has been condemned as fraudulent by independent observers and dozens of countries worldwide, including the United States.

Ahead of the inauguration ceremony, the military has shut down streets and deployed soldiers and armored vehicles across downtown Caracas. Military presence is set to be larger than in any other Venezuelan presidential inauguration ceremony over the past two decades to “guarantee peace,” according to the government.

But the armed services are also on the hunt for Mr. González, who the opposition coalition says is coming back to Venezuela after months of exile in Spain to claim the post he allegedly won with 67% of the votes, according to tally sheets published by the opposition.

In recent weeks, both Venezuela’s government and opposition have upped their efforts to lay claim to the presidency. The government has ramped up citizen repression through a new wave of arbitrary arrests. The opposition has called for mass protests in and outside the country, and dispatched Mr. González on a diplomatic tour throughout the Americas. Who will lead Venezuela over the next six years remains shrouded in uncertainty, but the answer could shape issues ranging from international diplomatic cooperation to the economy to migration.

“Only tool they have left”

Days before the inauguration, hooded men dressed in black kidnapped Mr. González’s son-in-law in front of his children. Meanwhile local news reported the government set up military check points and deployed drones near the home of the 84-year-old mother of María Corina Machado, the wildly popular opposition leader who appointed Mr. González as her replacement after being barred from running for president herself.

Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters

A "wanted" flyer showing Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González is attached to a pole in the days ahead of President Nicolás Maduro's contested inauguration for his third term in Caracas, Venezuela, Jan. 8, 2025.

Diosdado Cabello, minister of interior and a staunch Maduro ally, has threatened to arrest Mr. González – or even shoot down his plane – should he return to Venezuela.

Mr. Cabello has assured citizens that at tomorrow’s inauguration “it will be peace, tranquility.”

Since the July elections, Venezuela has seen a surge in arbitrary arrests and political repression, says Gonzalo Himiob Santomé, vice president of Foro Penal, a Venezuelan human rights organization. His nongovernmental organization has tallied about 1,800 political prisoners currently being held, many charged with terrorism or incitement of hatred. The number of politically motivated incarcerations jumped by roughly 500% since before the election, he says.

In the days leading up to the inauguration, international pressure on the government has mounted. On Tuesday, the Inter-American Commission of Human Rights released a report calling attention to Mr. Maduro’s use of state terrorism and coordinated repression to maintain power. Yesterday, the documentary “From Macedonia with Love” was released, documenting both the popular uprising and government repression following the July vote. The documentary’s website was blocked inside Venezuela soon after its release.

The government’s use of the military and fear tactics – including publishing a list of opposition _targets this week – is a “paradox,” says Mr. Himiob. “Instead of showing strength, it reveals” the government’s weakness.

“Repression is the only tool they have left,” says Samuel Díaz Pulgar, a Caracas-based member of the opposition’s campaign team, whose name was included on the list of government _targets.

The opposition has upped its pressure on Maduro’s government, too. As a former diplomat, Mr. González is tapping into his professional roots by orchestrating an international tour for support. He started in Buenos Aires, holding hands with Argentine president Javier Milei on the balcony of the Casa Rosada while waving to thousands of exiled Venezuelans chanting: “We are not afraid.”

He then met with President Joe Biden at the White House and other regional leaders, as well as with a handful of former Latin American presidents who say they will accompany him in his attempt to claim the presidency.

At home, the opposition is planning to confront Mr. Maduro before he can take the presidential oath. Ms. Machado called for mass protests for Jan. 9 to “reclaim” the opposition’s victory. Demonstrations are expected to take place across the globe, from Cairo to Brisbane and Tokyo to New Orleans.

Natacha Pisarenko/AP

Venezuela's opposition leader Edmundo González (right) waves to supporters alongside the Argentine president in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Jan. 4, 2025. Mr. González claims he won the 2024 presidential election and is recognized by some countries as the legitimate president-elect.

Déjà vu or something new?

The governing party has been in office since 1999 when Hugo Chávez, Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, took office as the democratically elected president. But in recent years, Mr. Maduro’s government has become increasingly authoritarian, says Paola Bautista de Alemán, a Venezuelan political scientist.

Venezuela’s electronic voting system is one of the most transparent and democratic in the world, says Dorothy Kronick, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley and co-author of the paper “How Maduro Stole Venezuela’s Vote,” published this month in the Journal of Democracy. “What is so amazing about this system is that you don’t have to trust anyone, people themselves can check and validate results,” Dr. Kronick says.

The electronic voting system was initially set up by Mr. Chávez to prove that he was not cheating when he was winning elections by landslides in the 2000s. Now it shows undisputedly that Mr. González won, Dr. Kronick says.

Mr. Maduro, who is far less popular than his predecessor, may have miscalculated his chances of winning in July, following his barring of popular candidates, intimidating voters, and making it difficult for Venezuelans abroad to cast their ballots.

In last summer’s vote the opposition gathered and published evidence of their victory by collecting over 80% of the machine-printed tally sheets that reflect the electronic vote.

But Mr. Maduro isn’t relying on votes to stay in power; he’s relying on the military, observers say.

“The next few days depend on those with the weapons – the armed forces,” Mr. Himiob says.

Now, many are asking if the armed forces could shift alliances to allow Mr. González to take the oath of office.

“Many police officers and soldiers are sending messages and making decisions right now,” Ms. Machado said in a press conference earlier this week. “In every household, in the families of militaries and police, there are children, partners, parents, siblings inviting them to be part of” the opposition, she said.

Geopolitical factors, such as last month’s fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, one of Mr. Maduro’s allies, has sparked hope in the opposition. Other Venezuelan allies like Russia and Iran are now distracted, grappling with their own problems, Ms. Machado says.

Venezuela’s inauguration ceremony is not an end date for the opposition, says Mr. Díaz Pulgar. He believes the leaders of Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia – who tried to facilitate negotiations for a peaceful leadership transition last year – will have to take a stand if Mr. Maduro gets sworn in without proof of electoral victory. However, all three governments are sending representatives to attend Mr. Maduro’s inauguration.

Before noon on Thursday, opposition supporters started gathering in cities and towns across Venezuela. It is no small feat following the mass arrests and detentions following the July vote, and at a time when citizens regularly clear their phones of pro-González text messages or photos before leaving home.

“If we as Venezuelans manage to overcome this fear [of expressing our democratic will], there will no way to repress” us, Ms. Machado said earlier this week. Venezuela’s democratic destiny, the opposition believes, is still up for grabs.

Italian Government/Reuters

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni tried to dissuade Donald Trump from imposing tariffs on European exports when she met him at Mar-a-Lago, Jan. 4, 2025.

Donald Trump is not yet in office. But for the outside world, especially key American allies, he is already in power.

That became inescapably clear this week, as world leaders intensified their efforts to head off major disruption when he returns to the Oval Office in a few days’ time.

They began to act almost as soon as Mr. Trump won the election in November.

Their main thrust: to make nice with the president-elect, engage with him and his team, and argue they share a mutual interest in avoiding sudden swings in U.S. economic and security policy.

But they also seem aware of the need to give him policy “wins” in return, something that might not always prove easy, or even possible.

The allies’ immediate concern is trade. Mr. Trump has signaled his intention to impose across-the-board tariffs not just on China, but also on Canada and Mexico (America’s top trading partners) and the 27 nations of the European Union. That could hugely unsettle a world economy that is still struggling with the effects of the pandemic and the Ukraine war.

The other worry, given Mr. Trump’s record of denigrating U.S. military alliances, is security. NATO allies worry he will abandon Ukraine and push for a ceasefire there on Russia’s terms.

Omar Havana/AP

Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk speaks with the media prior to a group photo at an EU summit in Brussels, Dec. 19, 2024.

Europe is making a particularly concerted push to head off a tariff hike and to sustain support for Ukraine.

Last weekend, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni flew to Florida to meet Mr. Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

She could be key to heading off – or at least limiting – tariffs. She is the EU’s most prominent right-wing leader, and has a good personal relationship with Mr. Trump. That makes her well placed to argue for trade negotiations instead of a trade war, possibly sweetened by a commitment to the major increase in European defense spending that the president-elect has been demanding.

She has also been committed to denying Russia victory in Ukraine.

The EU’s main Ukraine policy asset, however, may be Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. During Mr. Trump’s first term, Poland was his favored NATO ally: He even decided to redeploy some U.S. troops there from Germany.

While that occurred under a far-right government that Mr. Tusk subsequently defeated in elections, Poland has continued to ramp up defense spending. It is set to reach nearly 5% of gross domestic product this year, the _target Mr. Trump says all NATO allies should meet, and well above the alliance’s current average of under 3%.

Ukraine has also been on a charm-plus-benefits offensive, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken to Mr. Trump several times since the election. His aim is to persuade the president-elect that a negotiated deal giving Mr. Putin what he wants would risk undermining both U.S. credibility and Mr. Trump’s own reputation as a dealmaker.

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP/File

Former President Donald Trump meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower Sept. 27, 2024, in New York.

Aware of Mr. Trump’s criticism of the billions of dollars that the Biden administration gave Kyiv, he has also added a suggestion: Give sanction-frozen Russian funds to Ukraine. It would then use them to purchase weapons from America.

Even less politically well-placed European leaders have been courting Mr. Trump.

French President Emmanuel Macron, whose embrace of Mr. Trump early in his first term turned sour, not only invited but also reportedly implored him to attend the grand reopening of Notre Dame cathedral in Paris last month. Mr. Trump was there.

Britain’s left-of-center prime minister, Keir Starmer, has also reached out. And for his new ambassador to Washington, he chose Peter Mandelson, a political heavyweight and close ally who is a former EU trade commissioner. The clear hope: serious engagement on the tariff issue.

America’s closest neighbors and trading partners, Canada and Mexico, share that hope, but the public signs have not been encouraging. Mr. Trump has openly denigrated Canada’s retiring Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and this week he reiterated a suggestion that Canada should simply become America’s 51st state.

But like the Europeans, Mr. Trudeau has tried to avoid a tit-for-tat battle with Mr. Trump. And the Canadians have been engaging with his team to see how they might give the president the more effective border measures he says are needed to head off tariffs.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has been trying to persuade Mr. Trump to pause both the imposition of tariffs and the mass deportation plan he has promised. The repercussions of both would hurt both Mexico and the United States, she argues.

Allies in other potential trouble spots – neighbors of China and North Korea in Asia, and countries on both sides of the Middle East conflict – have been equally focused on getting Mr. Trump’s ear as inauguration day approaches, uncertain about the future strength and direction of Washington’s commitment to international relations.

For them, too, the rule of thumb has been to make nice.

They are also buckling up. Uncertain what lies ahead, America’s allies are hoping for overall stability, but they are ready for turbulence.

They have fastened their seat belts, but they worry about the cabin crew message that no one wants to hear: “Prepare for impact.”

Braving snow and freezing cold, kindergarten staff worker Ki-Soo Lee trudges to daily protests outside the gated residence of impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.

She’s tired. Since Ms. Lee first spoke with the Monitor in Seoul in early December, the young working mother has pushed through weeks of nonstop demonstrations, demanding Mr. Yoon be held accountable for his short-lived imposition of martial law Dec. 3. But she remains determined.

“I am very grateful there are people standing by my side, giving me strength,” she says. “Day after day, we need to stay together, we need to march together.”

Mr. Yoon’s surprise bid to impose military rule shocked many South Koreans, reviving memories of the country’s dark legacy of coups and military dictatorship, which lasted until 1987. Ms. Lee and her sister rallied with hundreds of thousands of people Dec. 14 outside South Korea’s parliament, erupting in cheers when lawmakers voted 204-85 to impeach Mr. Yoon. “I felt proud,” recalls Ms. Lee.

But today the defiant Mr. Yoon, who has vowed to “never give up,” remains holed up in his residence behind barricades erected by his security force. He is resisting not only his removal from office, but also efforts by government prosecutors to detain him for questioning over his martial law declaration.

Ann Scott Tyson/The Christian Science Monitor

Ki-Soo Lee, a kindergarten administrative worker in Seoul, joins a protest in the city's Gwanghwamun Square Dec. 6, 2024, calling for President Yoon Suk Yeol's removal following his short-lived effort to impose martial law.

Ms. Lee, who has a 10-year-old son, longs for a return to normalcy, something she knows is unlikely for at least a few more months.

“It feels like everyone’s daily life stopped at that moment – when he declared martial law,” she says. “Life stopped right then.” 

Under economic strain, sympathy for Yoon grows

At her noodle counter in Seoul’s Namdaemun market, vendor Jang Chang Suk also longs for an end to the current crisis – for different reasons.

“Business is horrible now!” she complains. “Last year there were a lot more foreigners eating at my counter.”

Political uncertainty is unsettling South Korea’s economy, worsening some already negative trends and impacting businesses large and small. It has scared off some foreign tourists, who have canceled trips, hurting the hospitality industry. The value of the South Korean currency, the won, has dropped sharply, pushing up import prices.

As the instability hits home, Ms. Jang’s political views have shifted. She says she’s grown more sympathetic toward Mr. Yoon since she first spoke with the Monitor in early December. “I understand better what happened,” she explains as she serves bowls of steaming noodles.

Ann Scott Tyson/The Christian Science Monitor

Jang Chang Suk, a noodle shop worker at the largest traditional market in South Korea, says her business has suffered as a result of the country’s political crisis.

Mr. Yoon, of the conservative People Power Party, has argued that he declared martial law as an act of “desperation” to overcome political gridlock that he blames on the opposition center-left Democratic Party. By defending his actions and pledging to “fight to the end to protect this country,” Mr. Yoon has succeeded to a degree in mobilizing his core supporters. Indeed, although Mr. Yoon’s popularity plunged to the teens immediately following his martial law declaration, recent polls have shown his approval rating rebounding to around 40%. 

His backers regularly rally outside his residence in Seoul, waving U.S. flags and signs saying “Stop the steal” – a reference to President-elect Donald Trump’s false claims that he won the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

“He was treated unfairly,” Ms. Jang says of Mr. Yoon.

South Korea’s democracy enters uncharted territory

From the ivy-covered towers of Yonsei University in Seoul, legal scholar Ethan Hee-Seok Shin watches with concern as South Korea’s young democracy enters uncharted waters. 

“The perfect storm of extreme polarization and partisanship, combined with the winner-take-all electoral system,” has left the country “stuck,” he explains, and the deepening political crisis has also exposed gaps in South Korea’s constitutional law.

“A lot of the situations we are facing now were not really envisioned by our legislators 20 or 30 years ago,” he says. 

Ann Scott Tyson/The Christian Science Monitor

Oh Cheung Ok, a documentary filmmaker, attends a protest by an estimated 100,000 people to support the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Dec. 7, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea.

After Mr. Yoon was impeached, for example, a controversy arose over the powers of the acting president, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, and whether Mr. Han could appoint new justices to fill three vacancies on the nine-seat Constitutional Court that will decide whether to permanently remove Mr. Yoon from power. Mr. Han refused to appoint the justices, and then the National Assembly voted Dec. 27 to impeach Mr. Han as well. The new acting leader, Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, last month appointed justices to fill two of the court vacancies.

Ultimately, however, Mr. Shin is confident today’s leadership void will be resolved by the courts.

“The silver lining,” he says, “is we won’t be going back to military law.”

Cinematographer Oh Cheong Ok echoes this sense of optimism as he weaves through a crowd of protesters in downtown Seoul, his mounted camera rolling.

A veteran of South Korean political activism, Mr. Oh organized opposition to military dictator Chun Doo-hwan as a university student in Seoul in the 1980s, and later made a documentary about that era. 

Today, as he captures the unfolding political drama, he voices confidence in the resilience of the country’s democracy. 

“At the critical time, the people of South Korea will be there to pressure the constitutional judge to do the right thing ... and fire the president,” he says. “The people of Korea will prevail, but we cannot rest yet.” 

Kyong Chong supported reporting for this story.

On a gray morning, Aivar Ruukel is scouting for the ideal aspen in the Soomaa, a vast wilderness area in southwestern Estonia. The aspen is the preferred tree for making a haabjas, or traditional dugout canoe – an art that is now endangered.

“The ideal tree should have the shape of a pencil, but every tree is perfect in its own way,” even if only a few can be used to build the boat, says Mr. Ruukel.

Some of the trees are covered with black canker, a fungal infection. “You can’t make a haabjas out of them, but they are used by woodpeckers to make their nests, so they serve a higher purpose,” he says.

Mr. Ruukel is one of the last five masters in the Baltic country who make the canoes. Until the 1960s, it was the conventional means of transportation in the Soomaa, or “land of bogs,” region during the spring floods, locally known as the fifth season. Mr. Ruukel and Priit-Kalev Parts, another haabjas maker, are the most vocal advocates for preserving the tradition, which is threatened by the making of fiberglass or other modern – often motorized – boats.

Both Mr. Ruukel and Mr. Parts learned their craft from older masters in the early 1990s, shortly after Estonia gained its independence from the Soviet Union, and are now trying to engage the new generation, training young apprentices in haabjas building. A skillful wielding of the axe to hollow out the tree is only part of the required expertise and techniques, which also involve expanding the trunk by filling it with water and then hanging it above a carefully controlled fire.

What was a necessary means of transportation in the past has now become an Estonian identity marker. In 2021, haabjas building was inscribed on UNESCO’s List of Intangible Cultural Heritage in Need of Urgent Safeguarding.

Avedis Hadjian

WHICH WOOD WOULD WORK? Aivar Ruukel searches in the Soomaa forest in southwestern Estonia for aspen trees suitable for making canoes.

Avedis Hadjian

LOGGING IN: Priit-Kalev Parts, a maker of dugout canoes, chops wood on his farm in Aimla, Estonia.

Avedis Hadjian

DOG DAYS: Pitsu, the family pet, is pictured after getting off a canoe following an excursion with Mr. Ruukel on the Pärnu River.

Avedis Hadjian

IN “THE LAND OF BOGS”: Mr. Ruukel (left) and Jari Hyvönen, his brother-in-law visiting from Finland, paddle in canoes on the Pärnu River.

For more visual storytelling that captures communities, traditions, and cultures around the globe, visit The World in Pictures.

REUTERS/ Karamallah Daher

A young girl in the town of Klayaa in southern Lebanon joins a street celebration after Gen. Joseph Aoun, chief of the armed forces, was elected as her country's first president in more than two years, on Jan. 9, 2025.

After 12 previous failed attempts over the past two years, the fractious parties of Lebanon’s parliament overcame their differences earlier Thursday and elected Gen. Joseph Aoun, head of the Lebanese armed forces, as their country’s new president.

That rare expression of political unity creates an opportunity for the country to emerge from a deep economic and political crisis resulting from years of violence, corruption, and religious division. General Aoun won the support of 99 of 128 members of parliament. He struck an immediate chord of harmony afterward, declaring that his election meant that no one had been “defeated.”

The break in Lebanon’s power vacuum follows the collapse last month of the Assad regime in neighboring Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah, Iran’s main militant proxy in Lebanon, through war with Israel. Backed by the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia, Mr. Aoun faces an immediate task in fulfilling the terms of a ceasefire brokered between Israel and Hezbollah in November. That agreement, which is set to expire later this month, requires establishing the military’s control across southern Lebanon, the militant group’s stronghold.

Addressing parliament, Mr. Aoun pledged to “confirm the state’s right to monopolize the carrying of weapons” by strengthening the army’s capability to protect the country’s borders. That marks a significant turn. Mr. Aoun kept the armed forces on the sidelines for most of the 13-month war between Israel and Hezbollah.

The vote in parliament demonstrated the extent to which the militant group has been discredited since Israel eliminated its top leaders. Blocs that in recent years have shied from open confrontation with Hezbollah openly rebuffed its representatives both within the chamber and on social media. Even its favored candidate threw his support behind Mr. Aoun.

In a country whose currency has lost 98% of its value since 2019 and where 80% of the population lives below the poverty line, Mr. Aoun quickly acknowledged that Lebanon’s security requires more than military solutions. “There must be equality among all citizens,” he told parliament. “There must be equality before the law.... Justice is the only protection for all citizens.”

In vowing to prioritize public education, environmental protection, and electoral reform, the new president may have been nodding to the aspirations that shaped the 2019 “October Revolution” – a spontaneous uprising of youth demanding democratic reforms. The open celebrations across Lebanon following Mr. Aoun’s elections, even in Hezbollah's southern stronghold, showed that those hopes endure.

“The social justice agenda cannot be advanced without first breaking away from the current sectarian state and moving toward a civil state,” wrote Ghia Osseiran, a fellow researcher at the Centre for Lebanese Studies, of the youth protests.

For the first time in decades, wrote Lebanese journalist Kim Ghattas in the Financial Times, there is “a unique opportunity to reimagine Lebanon’s future without the threat of violence.”