David P. Goldman

There are interesting figures/facts about population trends, projections and reproduction rates here.

Is there a coming demographic crisis coming in e.g. Middle Eastern countries? Possibly. I myself have wondered what the heck the various countries and peoples of the region will do in 30 or 50 years when oil really begun to tap out. Poor European countries? Possibly there as well.

But I don't know how much weight I give his projections... do I really believe that in 100 years Germany will be have lost 98% of its population... no. That Japan, Spain, Germany, etc. will have "ceased to exist." No.

Was "Spengler" using hyperbole? Possibly, but he sure doesn't sound like it. And, generally, the 20th time someone has repeated a claim you can be safe in assuming they are serious.

Do I give much credence to his other thoughts here? No. It is a hodgepodge dubious assertions and half-supported claims, contradictory moral reasoning, and cheerleading for Christianity of a certain flavor hitched together with Judaism of certain flavor. He doesn't seem to have seriously addressed a single competing theory in 270 pages; that right there is a problem for me.

While the book points out some interesting -and, I agree, potentially very serious- demographic issues, it really falls down on doing any kind of real analysis. And while I sort of knew what I was getting into re: the author's religio-cultural-political beliefs, I'm still disappointed he was *so* beholden to them (to the point of illogic in a handful of places.)

Lastly, while the swath of countries from Turkey to Pakistan are surely "benighted" (a word I think he would approve of) his evident... distaste?.. for the people is, ah, a bit much. I came away with a definite sense that he is dancing on the graves of millions of people, before they've even died. That was only a sense "between the lines", to be clear, but I don't think I'm 100% off. If "Islam" goes down in a firey multi-decade convulsion, then the author's religio-cultural-political side "wins." I think that is the sense that comes across, his happiness with that "win", and a morally bankrupt callousness, to put it mildly, to the misery along the way.

I'm giving 2 stars, despite the obvious issues, because there is enough here to make you think, especially if you are not a demographer.… (more)

This was an intriguing book to read. David Goldman frequently overstates his case against the possibilities of change in civilizations. The Scandinavians of today do not resemble the Vikings of a 1,000 years ago. So, one can ask if there is substance to the hope of Americans for Mideastern countries being able to participate comfortably in the global sphere. But Goldman does bring out interesting concerns about population decline in the East, but also the decline of religion as well as population in the West.… (more)