Russia: international moves, W responses, Putin...Ukraine...China...Africa...internal devts. 17

Pekka Kallioniemi @P_Kallioniemi | 2:25 AM · Apr 30, 2024 {X}:
Creator of #vatniksoup and The Soup Central. {VA}

Russia:
- Invades a country at the heart of Europe, completely demolishing its cities and killing its civilian population
- Assassinates people in European countries with painful nerve agents and radioactive substances
- Sabotages European weapons factories
- Runs a sophisticated spy/illegal network around Europe
- Interferes with elections and provokes civil unrest
- Uses GPS jamming against civilian planes
- Sabotages Europe's energy infrastructure
- Sends waves of immigrants (who are probably joined by spies and agent provocateurs) to EU
- Bribes European politicians so that they would promote pro-Kremlin narratives for local audiences
- Spreads propaganda and disinformation on a massive scale
- Nationalizes Western companies and equipment worth of billions of euros

Europe:
- We should do more business and pay more taxes to Russia!

Financial Times "Western business, the Kremlin and the War" (https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1785193733895417973/photo/1)

Moldova eyes energy lever to topple Kremlin puppet regime in Transnistria {breakaway province on border w Ukraine}
Gabriel Gavin | April 29, 2024

...Since gaining independence in the 1990s, Moldova has been locked in a frozen conflict with Moscow over Transnistria, a Kremlin-backed separatist region near Moldova’s eastern border with over a quarter of a million people.

...The face-off has been tense, but maintained by a powerful connection: Moldova gets cut-rate Russian energy via Transnistria, which gets hundreds of millions of euros a year in return. The link allowed Russia to preserve control over the strategic strip of land along the Ukrainian border, where its troops are stationed despite Moldova’s objections.

That dynamic is changing, however. Moldova in recent years has integrated with Europe under pro-EU President Maia Sandu. Brussels has offered millions of euros and more links to its energy supplies as part of a yearslong process to get the country, one of Europe’s poorest nations, ready for EU membership.

“Moldova is no longer dependent on Transnistria,” Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi told POLITICO. “When it comes to gas, we buy gas on the international market. On the electricity side, we are building high-voltage lines to connect ourselves to Romania.”

The switch is a problem for Transnistria, but also for the Moldovan government. Stopping payments to Transnistria would collapse the separatist state’s budget and leave hundreds of thousands of people there without incomes and basic services — a challenge that, for a country Moldova’s size, would be akin to the reunification of Germany following the fall of the Berlin Wall...

Russia’s ability to intervene is, in practice, limited. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, local Russian forces have been cut off from their usual supply lines, unable to bring in reinforcements or fly in hardware. Many haven’t been rotated in or out of Moldova in years, and have settled down and raised families locally. And while they sit atop one of Europe’s largest arsenals of weaponry and ammunition at the closely guarded Cobasna depot, it is widely believed to hold little else but decaying WWII-era equipment that hasn’t already been sold off or repurposed by the Russians.

...in Moldova’s case, there’s no ethnic animosity driving efforts to end the standoff. Almost all Transnistrian residents have Moldovan passports and move freely through the Russian-guarded checkpoints. Just like Moldovans living elsewhere in the country, Transnistrian residents stand to benefit from the economic boom of joining the EU — no matter what Putin might want for them.

...Moscow...can still create problems for Moldova. Last year, Kyiv’s intelligence services warned it had intercepted a Moscow plan to stage a coup and oust Sandu, using a pro-Russian opposition party to overthrow the government. Presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for October will be a critical moment for Moldovans to decide their future — and a chance for outside powers like Russia to meddle...Brussels has deployed a mission to the country to help counter disinformation designed to weaken Moldova’s EU ambitions...

https://www.politico.eu/article/moldova-eye-energy-lever-topple-kremlin-puppet-r...

800 days of this awful war today.

- Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:37 PM · May 3, 2024 {X}

All these months and years of war were very challenging and exhausting. This is a marathon we did not choose.

There are a lot of losses. There is uncertainty ahead. These are dark times with little light. We have already come a long way and are very tired.

But we still have faith. It gives us strength to keep going, to keep fighting.

Many people read my posts. It gives us strength. It shows that we are not alone. And I am very grateful to you. For every word of support, for every good deed you do. For each of your prayers for Ukraine.

Thank you, friends!

‘I love my country, but I can’t kill’: Ukrainian men evading conscription (Guardian)

As the war stretches on indefinitely, there are few eager recruits and Kyiv’s armed forces are short of soldiers... Nevertheless, the army is trying to find new people to replace those who have been killed or injured and to relieve exhausted soldiers propping up the frontline. In spring 2022 volunteers queued to joined up, but with the war stretching on indefinitely, there are few eager recruits. Measures allowing the military to call up more soldiers and to tighten punishment for evasion were approved by Volodymyr Zelenskiy in April. The mobilisation age was reduced from 27 to 25 and, from 18 May, draft evaders can lose their driving licence and have their bank accounts frozen and property seized. The government has also said it is withdrawing consular services from Ukrainian men living abroad in countries such as Poland and Lithuania... With draft officers roaming the streets of Ukrainian towns and cities, some men of conscription age are hiding. Telegram channels have sprung up where users can report sightings of state representatives in order to avoid them...

Ukraine’s plan if Russia assassinates Zelenskyy
Jamie Dettmer | August 1, 2023

...Ever since he rebuffed an evacuation offer by telling his would-be American rescuers “I need ammunition, not a ride,” the Ukrainian president has played a key role in mustering international support for the fight against Russia.

No wonder Russian lawmakers and ultra-nationalist military bloggers have formed a chorus demanding he be _targeted. Zelenskyy’s status as a symbol of what the West sees as a righteous fight, his ability to beg and berate his allies until he gets his way, his willingness to brazen his way to frontline photo ops and parliamentary appearances — these have painted him with a bullseye.

A few weeks after Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, a top Zelenskyy adviser, Mikhail Podolyak, disclosed there had been at least a dozen serious assassination attempts on his boss by Russian sabotage and intelligence teams, including Chechens and Wagner mercenaries attempting to breach Kyiv’s heavily guarded and monitored government quarter...

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraines-plan-volodymyr-zelenskyy-dies-russia-wa...
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Ukraine claps back after Russia puts Zelenskyy on ‘wanted list’
Jacopo Barigazzi | May 5, 2024

... the Kremlin’s “wanted list”...is an online database of those the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs accuses of being criminals. Russia reportedly said the Ukrainian leader was wanted “under an article of the criminal code” but did not provide further details.

...In February Moscow added Estonia Prime Minister Kaja Kallas to its wanted list for “desecration of historical memory and hostility towards Russia.”...

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-claps-back-russia-volodymyr-zelenskyy-wa...
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Comment of the {Ukraine} MFA Press Office on Russian reports of putting Ukraine's President on the wanted list
04 May 2024

Russian reports about the alleged addition of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs' wanted list demonstrate the desperation of the Russian state machine and propaganda, which are at a loss for what else to invent to garner attention.

We would like to remind everyone that, unlike the worthless Russian announcements, the International Criminal Court's warrant for the arrest of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on war crimes charges is real and enforceable in 123 countries.

https://mfa.gov.ua/en/news/komentar-pressluzhbi-mzs-shchodo-rosijskih-povidomlen...

Cubans lured to Russian army by high pay and passports (BBC)

Russia has likely been recruiting Cuban nationals to fight in its army in Ukraine, research by the BBC has shown. In September and October 2023, passport details belonging to over 200 Cubans who allegedly joined the Russian army were leaked online by a pro-Ukrainian platform called InformNapalm... A Facebook search has shown that 31 of the names mentioned in the Ukrainian leak match accounts whose owners appear to be in Russia or linked to the Russian army. Some, for instance, have posted photos of themselves wearing Russian military uniform, or in locations that bear Russian street signs or Russian number plates. Others list Russia as their current place of residence. Many of those Facebook users started posting Russia-related content in the second half of 2023, indicating when they might have arrived in the country. Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has suffered heavy losses on the battlefield. A BBC investigation confirmed the names of more than 50,000 Russian troops killed in Ukraine - but the real number is likely to be much higher. Ukraine's own estimate puts the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in the war at nearly 500,000. Recruiting foreigners to replace some of the losses also helps the Kremlin avoid the risks posed by trying to mobilise Russians by force. When Russia declared a partial mobilisation in 2022, hundreds of thousands of men left the country...

Ukraine parliament passes bill for prisoners to join army (Al Jazeera)

Ukraine’s parliament has passed a bill that would enable some prisoners to fight in the armed forces as the military faces a critical personnel shortage and Russian forces continue to advance on the battlefield. The move on Wednesday marks a U-turn in Ukraine’s approach on the matter. Kyiv had long opposed the measure and had repeatedly criticised Moscow for mobilising prisoners to fill its ranks... Mobilisation would be voluntary and open only to certain categories of prisoners. Among those not eligible to serve include those found guilty of sexual violence, killing two or more people, serious corruption and former high-ranking officials, Shuliak said. Only prisoners with under three years left to serve on their sentence may apply, she said. Any prisoners who are mobilised would be granted parole rather than a pardon...

Putin watches Russian military parade featuring a solitary, Soviet-era tank (Guardian)

A solitary, symbolic tank has featured in Russia’s annual 9 May military parade for the second year in a row as the country was forced to pare down its normal display of military might during a full-scale war in which it has suffered unprecedented losses over the last two years. The single tank to roll across Red Square as Vladimir Putin reviewed about 9,000 troops was a second world war-era T-34 carrying the banner that the Soviet Union used when it defeated Nazi Germany alongside other allies. The tank has gained iconic status, but is not in combat use and is instead a token of those that used to be part of the 9 May Victory Day celebrations. It is just one way in which the largest land war in Europe since the second world war has affected Russia’s main military and political celebration. Photographs from Red Square also showed patrolmen carrying anti-drone rifles to guard against sabotage attacks that have become a concern due to the proliferation of drones on the battlefield – and increasingly at military and energy sites inside Russia... Oryx, the open-source intelligence defence analysis website, estimates the Russian army has lost at least 3,000 tanks in the last two years, including 2,000 destroyed and another 514 captured by Ukraine. Those are of an estimated 15,724 lost armoured vehicles, including 11,202 that have been destroyed. The actual number is thought to be even higher...

‘The goal is not peace’: What’s behind Putin’s wartime Russia reshuffle?
Niko Vorobyov | 13 May 2024

President’s surprise reshuffle to see deputy prime minister and economist Andrei Belousov seize Shoigu’s defence minister’s role.

...Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister of 12 years, of his post and appoint him as secretary of the Security Council, a position previously held by Nikolai Patrushev since 2008

...Putin’s decree also removes the FSVTS from the Ministry of Defence, leaving Shoigu only answerable to the president himself.

...Military expert Rob Lee wrote on Xg,...“The big loser in this shuffle appears to be Patrushev, who was also one of the key decisionmakers behind the invasion of Ukraine.” It is yet unclear where Patrushev’s new assignment will be....

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/13/the-goal-is-not-peace-whats-behind-puti...

Hanna Notte @HannaNotte | 4:50 AM · May 11, 2024:
Russia's foreign & security policy | Middle East | Nukes | Director for Eurasia @JamesMartinCNS | Snr. Associate @CSIS @csiserep | PhD Oxford Uni | Berlin-based

Russian embassy in #Mali & #Niger:
On May 9, children attending the private Leonid Tolstoy school in Mali: Wearing Soviet caps and St. George ribbons, standing under Soviet banners, singing Soviet songs.

Quote
Ambassade de Russie au Mali et au Niger @ambassade_russe | 7:09 PM · May 9, 2024:
Малийские учащиеся частной школы им Л.Н.Толстого исполнили во время протокольного мероприятия 9 мая в Посольстве России в Мали песни "На безымянной высоте","День Победы".
Ученики школы при Посольстве прочитали стихи, посвященные Великой Отечественной войне.

Google translate: Malian students of the private school named after L.N. Tolstoy sang the songs "On a Nameless Height" and "Victory Day" during a protocol event on May 9 at the Russian Embassy in Mali. Students of the school at the Embassy read poems dedicated to the Great Patriotic War.

0:20, 0:47, 0:48 (https://twitter.com/ambassade_russe/status/1788708011931775165)

#Победа79 #ДеньПобеды

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 12:30 PM · May 13, 2024:
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. {DC}

Defeating Russia’s operation in Kharkiv Oblast requires defeating Russia’s glide bomb threat. Russian forces are using glide bombs launched from Russian airspace to enable Russian ground maneuver in Kharkiv Oblast. (1/3)

Map of Ukraine in range of glide bombs launched from Russian airspace (https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1790057061289459877/photo/1)

Doktor Klein 🇪🇸 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @Doktor_Klein | 11:30 AM · May 15, 2024 {X}:
With music you can also fight against tyranny. España {NAFO? https://nafo-ofan.org/en-ca/pages/we-are-nafo }

Red lines are now officially over.

" Ukraine 'has to make decisions for itself' when deciding how to use U.S.-supplied weapons that could strike _targets inside Russian territory, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on May 15."

0:29 (https://twitter.com/Doktor_Klein/status/1790766793344098785)

>9 margd: contd.

Putin Begins Defense Ministry Purge Amid Nuclear Secrets Leak Rumor
Newsweek | May 14, 2024

...two weeks before Shoigu's sacking, Igor Sushko, the executive director of the Wind of Change Research Group, claimed that the former defense minister and his deputies, Ivanov and Tsalikov, had been accused of leaking nuclear secrets and could be facing state treason charges.

"Raids on Ivanov & accomplices yielded data on classified military projects including nuclear installations," Sushko wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, on April 28.

Osechkin also made the same allegations in a video posted to YouTube the day before. "In contravention of all top secret protocols, Tsalikov and Ivanov provided access to secret documents about Russia's nuclear shelf, among other things, to persons who did not have any level of security clearance," he alleged...

https://www.newsweek.com/shoigu-defense-resigantion-putin-russia-1900451

Col. Davis on the collapse of the front line in Kharkiv. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt6fhuiM2Co

cf.
Anti-corruption group reveals fake companies in Kharkiv fortification contracts
https://english.nv.ua/nation/anti-corruption-activist-exposes-suspicious-wood-su...

and cf. Col. Wilkerson
Putin's Major Offensive Commences, Devastating Ukraine's Military | Col. Larry Wilkerson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XH4RjU_hNvY

To attack Kharkiv, Russia taking advantage of delay in US support, plus US ban (now "lifted") on using its weaponry on _targets across the border in Russia...

>15 margd: And to those who saw this coming long before any Congressional delay, you would say what?

Davis addresses some of this, answering Petraeus
https://www.youtube.com/live/rt6fhuiM2Co?si=Zu-5ULLqXTAwyQ5P&t=996

The Russian Kharkiv offensive is slowing down, it looks like it is contained for the moment. There was not enough troops for a breaktrough anyway, probably a distraction to force Ukraine to spread their soldiers to thin.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:52 AM · May 18, 2024 {X}:
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1791060700426617230

China has again refused Putin's request for the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project.

The construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is postponed. Russia and China have yet to agree on key details of the project.

A new contract with Beijing is desperately needed by Gazprom, which lost its European market and lost more than half of its exports after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Last year, Putin met twice with Chinese President Xi Jinping, trying to convince him to accept the project, which the Kremlin has been pushing for more than seven years, but both times the talks ended in nothing. Looks like the third time was not the charm, too...

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en · May 16
"Russian and Chinese are brothers forever," - Putin during his visit to China.

Russia positively assesses China's position on the Ukrainian issue, according to a joint statement after talks between Putin and Xi Jinping.

Beijing and Moscow noted the need to stop any steps that could lead to a prolongation of hostilities and further escalation, Russian media reported...
_________________________________

China Eyes Russia's Far East as Putin's 'History Lesson' Backfires
Aadil Brar | Feb 13, 2024

...China has a historical claim to Vladivostok, which was handed to Tsarist Russia in 1860 as part of the Treaty of Peking. Under the treaty, the boundary between China and Russia was set along the Amur and Ussuri Rivers, which gave Russia access to Vladivostok, a major port city in Russia's Far East.

...In recent years, a movement among sections of Chinese nationalists has emerged, asking that Russia return Vladivostok to China. These claims have been intensified by Putin's interview {w Tucker Carlson}, in which he contrasted the alleged historical foundation of the Russian state, which he said dated back to the 9th century, with the "invention" of Ukraine in the 20th century.

...Chinese state media has largely kept silent on the issue of Vladivostok as Beijing considers the Kremlin's support a bulwark against U.S. influence in international affairs.

...In August 2023, a map published by China's Ministry of Natural Resources laid claim to other disputed areas with Russia and neighboring countries. These included Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island, or Heixiazi, at the confluence of two border rivers, of which ownership is legally shared between the two countries. China's official map painted the entire 135-square mile piece of strategic land into its easternmost territory.

Earlier versions of the map had also renamed key places in Russia's east. Vladivostok was renamed Haishenwai and Sakhalin Island as Kuyedao.

https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-vladivostok-lesson-far-east-backfires-1869...

Jim Sciutto {CNN} @jimsciutto | 5:41 AM · May 19, 2024:

New: Ukraine’s navy said it sank another Russian warship overnight. “Last night, the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed the Russian Black Sea Fleet's “Kovrovets” 266-M trawler,” the Naval Forces Command PR office wrote on Telegram. CNN cannot independently verify the claim.
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Defense of Ukraine@DefenceU | 4:29 AM · May 19, 2024:
Official page of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 🇺🇦

Another bad day for the russian Black Sea Fleet.

Overnight, Ukrainian defenders destroyed a russian minesweeper Project 266M "Kovrovets".
Great job, warriors!

Photo of vessel (https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1792110322028822560/photo/1)

Will post a map when I find one...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:10 PM · May 21, 2024:

❗️Russian authorities have made a unilateral decision to change the sea borders of Russia with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. This follows from the draft government resolution published on the portal of legal acts of the Russian Federation.

According to the document drafted by the Russian defense ministry, Russia intends to declare part of the water area in the east of the Gulf of Finland, as well as near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region as its internal sea waters.

To do that, geographic coordinates of the points that determine the position of the baselines from which the width of the territorial sea of ​​the Russian Federation is measured, as well as the adjacent zone off the coast and islands will be changed.

🔹At the border with Finland, Russian government intends to correct the coordinates in the area of ​​the islands of Yahi, Sommers, Holland, Rodsher, Maly Tyuters, Vigrund, as well as near the northern entrance cape of the Narva River, follows from the appendix to the Cabinet of Ministers.

🔹On the border with Lithuania, the area of ​​the Curonian Spit in the Gulf of Gdansk, the areas of Cape Taran, the cape south of Cape Taran, as well as the Baltic Spit came under review.

The current geographical coordinates established by the USSR Council of Ministers in 1985 “do not fully correspond to the modern geographical situation,” the authors of the project claim. The points were recorded “using small-scale maritime navigation charts,” which, in turn, were based on works from the mid-20th century, and this “does not allow us to determine the external boundary of the internal sea waters” of the Russian Federation, the document says.

As a result of the changes, “a previously absent system of straight baselines will be established on the southern part of the Russian islands in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, as well as in the area of ​​Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk, allowing the corresponding water areas to be used as internal sea waters of the Russian Federation; The passage of the State border of the Russian Federation at sea will change due to a change in the position of the external border of the territorial sea,” the authors of the project explained.

The 40-year-old resolution of the USSR Council of Ministers regulating the borders in the Baltic Sea is proposed by the Ministry of Defense to be partially “recognized as ineffective” (section “Baltic Sea”).
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Olga Lautman 🇺🇦 @OlgaNYC1211 | 4:00 PM · May 21, 2024:
Focus: Russian intel ops, Eastern Europe. Senior Fellow @CEPA {Center for European Policy Analysis} Co-host @kremlinfile podcast Director @SyriaUkraineSUN. Senior investigative researcher @IEI_ngo {Institute for European Integrity}

Russia has decided to unilaterally move the border with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea

“According to the document prepared by the Ministry of Defense, Russia intends to declare part of the water area in the east of the Gulf of Finland, as well as near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region, as its internal sea waters.”

https://moscowtimes.ru/2024/05/21/rossiya-reshila-vodnostoronnem-poryadke-sdvinu...

Google Translate:
https://x.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1793009650687693034/photo/1
https://x.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1793009650687693034/photo/2
https://x.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1793009650687693034/photo/3
https://x.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1793009650687693034/photo/4
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Robert J. Thomas @RobertJThomas1 | 6:01 PM · May 21, 2024:

This is Russia learning from China. China is acting like the borders in the South China Sea are whatever they say they are. They completely ignore the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ('UNCLOS'), which they helped to draft, and the tribunal established under it, the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea ('ITLOS').

In UNCLOS the method of determining what belongs to who, including in Exclusive Economic Zones ('EEZ'), was elucidated. Now China has been sailing around encroaching on other's waters for over a year, and has been getting away with it. So Russia thinks, why not do that up north?

It will be a bad idea, though. People haven't started shooting at each other in the South China Sea. And Ukraine has been shooting at Russian bases in Crimea, and at their ships. If Russia starts throwing its weight around in the far north, if I were Ukraine I would take some of my most effective drone types and get them on boats up there. Turn Russia's fleet into rusting heaps on the bottom of the ocean. They're already at war. What's Russia going to do to them? Invade?
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EverShifting @DadoLeande99487 | 3:47 PM · May 21, 2024
That could explain the russian flotilla comming from syria and passing Portugal and going to the north.

Russian migrations northward
itamilradar | May 19, 2024

This week, in the night of May 14th, a significant {6}Russian fleet crossed the Strait of Gibraltar exiting the Mediterranean ... {2} corvettes ... ; {2} amphibious assault ships ... ; the reconnaissance and information gathering ship ... ; and the oiler ...

https://www.itamilradar.com/2024/05/19/russian-migrations-northward/
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Sound The Retweet: 🗳 I VOTED HIM OUT @SOUNDtheRETWEET | 3:30 PM · May 21, 2024:

“And to enforce these new claims, the Russian Federation intends to use its rapidly growing fleet of fully-submersible surface vessels.”
-------------------------------------------

Look for more unexplained damage to underwater infrastructure?

Suspected sabotage shuts another European gas pipeline. Here’s what you need to know
Anna Cooban | October 11, 2023

...Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, has an idea ... The incident is “less about disrupting European gas supply and more about raising bigger questions about the safety and security of offshore infrastructure, not just gas pipelines,” he told CNN, adding that electricity and communications cables also run along the bed of the Baltic Sea...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/11/energy/baltic-pipeline-explainer/index.html
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Any Mountain @AnyMtn | 5:21 PM · May 21, 2024:
Well, nobody did a darn thing when they declared the Arctic as Russian territory. Russia now has military bases and does military drills there for the last 2 decades. They know it will be an important shipping area as the ice melts.
Give Russia an inch and they will keep going

>20 margd:, contd.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:44 AM · May 22, 2024:
The draft law of the Russian defense ministry that proposed a unilateral change by Russia of its borders with Finland, Estonia and Lithuania in the Baltic Sea has disappeared from the website of the Russian government.

Putin continues probing NATO and studying their true "red lines." It looks like this initiative got a strong response, so the Kremlin backed down.

The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry called the Russian plan to change the border “an escalation against NATO and the EU” and spoke in favor of a “tough response” to Moscow, while the Finnish Foreign Ministry said that Russia’s introduction of confusion is a deliberate hybrid influence.

Peskov was quick to say that "the proposal of the Russian Ministry of Defense to update the coordinates of Russia’s borders in the Baltic Sea has no political background.”

These attempts will continue and I'm sure that we will soon see them in other areas, as well.

Image
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1793291912301924829/photo/1

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:23 AM · May 22, 2024:
It is highly likely that Russia's next step will be the legislative consolidation of its territorial claims in other seas as well - in particular, in the Arctic and Black Sea regions.

Before it starts to act, Russia always conducts legislative preparation and checks the reaction of the global community. This is happening now with its revision of maritime borders and maritime legislation.

Russia is testing the waters: is it really worth it to start a nuclear war because of some maritime borders? Well then, where can it go further?

What's next?

If the world doesn't react, Russia will, as always, move on from legislative activity to real action.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:10 AM · May 23, 2024

Arrests of generals continue.
According to unconfirmed official information, law enforcement officers have detained Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin, head of the Main Communications Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces and deputy chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.

Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1793540048224223300/photo/1)
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:53 AM · May 21, 2024:

Russian media report that Ivan Popov, ex-commander of the Russian 58th army, has been arrested.

He is accused of fraud of over 100 million rubles.

Previously, Popov led the Russian army in Zaporizhzhia {nuclear plant} direction. In the summer of 2023, he was removed as commander. Prior to that, he strongly criticized the Russian leadership in 2023 and threatened to bring all these problems directly to Putin.

I am confident that this fate will soon befall other Russian generals as well.

Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1792916601408307577/photo/1)
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2023:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:01 AM · Jul 16, 2023:

...In the first hours after Prigozhin's rebellion, Russia detained at least 13 high-ranking Russian military officers for questioning, and another 15 were dismissed or suspended...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:47 AM · May 23, 2024

By the way, the Wagner Group is still active and actively: recruiting volunteers for the "long haul". Meaning Africa.

A video appeared in the official Telegram channels of the Wagner Group, claiming to show footage of a meeting between representatives of the authorities of Chad and the Central African Republic that took place in the Republic of Chad on May 22.

A version appeared online that dead Prigozhin is in this video - the man whose face was blurred.

It is stated that thanks to "Russian specialists from Wagner Group," an agreement was reached to open a checkpoint near the town of Moyenne Sido for the free movement of people and goods.

In addition, an agreement was reached on cooperation for coordinated counteraction to gangs.

On the occasion of the agreement, thousands of local residents took to the streets to thank the CAR authorities and Wagner Group instructors who did everything to make this crucial event happen.

0:54 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1793549225067704554)

Would Russia really attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons?
Roman Goncharenko | 5/22/2024

For the first time since the 2022 invasion, Russia wants to carry out tactical nuclear weapons exercises near the Ukrainian border. But experts don't think an attack is imminent. It's more about political messaging...

... {Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council} linked the decision to hold tactical nuclear weapons exercises with deliberations in the West over sending allied ground troops to Ukraine.

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, also linked the planned nuclear exercises with statements by Western politicians regarding a possible deployment of troops in Ukraine, mentioning French President Emmanuel Macron in particular. Peskov spoke of a "new round of escalating tensions."

https://www.dw.com/en/would-russia-really-attack-ukraine-with-nuclear-weapons/a-...

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 9:14 AM · May 23, 2024:

US Space Command reported on May 21 that Russia recently launched an anti-satellite weapon, the most recent report that Russia intends to field disruptive anti-satellite capabilities. (1/2)
Text (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1793631667208200573/photo/1)

2/ Russian efforts to field anti-satellite capabilities aimed at disrupting US and partner satellites likely aim to support preparations for a future confrontation with NATO. http://isw.pub/UkrWar052224

>20 margd: "Will post a map when I find one..."

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 10:07 PM · May 22, 2024:

NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed on May 21 that the Russian government reassess Russia’s maritime borders in the Baltic Sea so that these borders “correspond to the modern geographical situation.” 🧵(1/4)
Map (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1793463797216113145/photo/1)

2/ The Russian MoD produced a since-deleted document proposing that the Russian government should reassess the 1985 maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland because these borders were based on outdated “small-scale nautical navigation maps” developed in the mid-20th century.
Text (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1793463800492073090/photo/1)

3/ Kremlin and Russian MoD officials denied on May 22 that Russia is planning to change the Russian maritime border, but invertedly implied that the Russian government is considering undertaking some “security” measures in the Baltic Sea.
Text (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1793463803843342479/photo/1)

4/ Western officials noted that Russia may be reassessing the basis for maritime borders in order to revise maritime zones in the Baltic Sea.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2024: http://isw.pub/UkrWar052224
Text (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1793463806183854473/photo/1)

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 11:33 PM · May 22, 2024:

Western officials warned that Russian intelligence services intend to increase sabotage activities and other hybrid operations against NATO member countries. (1/3)
Text (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1793485483823317215/photo/1)

2/ Russian security services are likely intensifying sabotage operations in European countries to disrupt the arrival of resumed US security assistance to Ukraine...

3/ ...and will likely continue hybrid operations aimed at fomenting discord in Europe ahead of European Parliament elections scheduled for early June 2024. http://isw.pub/UkrWar052224

Samuel Ramani {Oxford} @SamRamani2 | 7:14 AM · May 25, 2024 {X}:

BREAKING: The Baltic States, Finland, Poland and Norway agree to a "drone wall" to protect their borders

Lithuania's Interior Ministry revealed this drone wall plan which would use UAVs to prevent smuggling and provocations (presumably weaponised migration from Belarus)

A response to Russia's revanchist border manipulations in the Baltic Sea and Narva escalation

More details here: it appears as if the EU would help fund the project if it takes off

Baltics, Poland, Finland, Norway agree on ‘drone wall’ to protect borders
BNS | 2024.05.24

...Lithuanian Interior Minister Agnė Bilotaitė ... made the remarks after a meeting on Friday in Latvia with her counterparts from the other two Baltic states, Poland, Finland, and Norway.

“This is a completely new thing – a drone wall stretching from Norway to Poland – and the goal is to use drones and other technologies to protect our borders {...} against provocations from unfriendly countries and to prevent smuggling,” Bilotaitė told BNS.

To create such a “drone wall”, countries would use UAVs {unmanned aerial vehicles, commonly known as drones} to monitor their border area, as well as anti-drone systems to stop drones from hostile countries being used for smuggling and provocations...

... the “drone wall” could be created using EU funds.

...Bilotaitė said. “We agreed to hold regional drills to ensure the evacuation of the population, to see how our institutions are prepared to work, to interact with each other, what our capacity is to accommodate people, what the capacity of other countries is, whether they are ready to receive a certain number of our people...We still have a lot of questions; we need to look at all those algorithms. Drills would be very valuable as we would look at things, evaluate them and we would strengthen our preparedness” ...

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2281492/baltics-poland-finland-norway-a...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:49 AM · May 25, 2024:

Friends,
I've learned about a very interesting conference that will take place next week and will be available online, as well. It promises to explore this war's colonial/decolonial dimensions within an interdisciplinary discussion.

I will try to listen to at least some of the sessions, and I invite you to join in, as well.

Here is the link to more information about the conference and registration:
Beyond Western Colonialism: Exploring the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on colonial and decolonial studies
Sala Belvedere, Villa Schifanoia
27, 28 May 2024
https://eui.eu/events?id=568657

Map divided Russia (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1794349975331066298/photo/1)
_____________________________________

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:26 AM · Jan 18, 2024:
Why will the Russian empire - the Russian Federation - collapse?

▪️ Moral decay of the authorities and the people: lies, hypocrisy, deceit, denunciations, falsifications, aggressiveness, intolerance, xenophobia, chauvinism, acceleration of moral decay.

▪️ Opposition to the whole world, endless conflicts, cold war, growth of internal centrifugal tendencies.

▪️ Rapid degradation of elites, administrative and official apparatus degradation.

▪️ Emigration of part of the progressive, thinking and educated population.

▪️ Increased aggressive encroachments, rapid expansion of borders: many empires "choke" on new lands - die from inability to digest all that they have swallowed.

▪️ Loss of efficiency and possibility of further development.

▪️ Huge territories, provinces' distance, consequent difficulties of governance, national and religious contradictions.

▪️ Gradual weakening of the imperial center, national conflicts and feuds. Struggle of the peripheries for power.

▪️ Lack of modernization of the country. Stagnation. Material and moral deterioration. As a consequence, the "hurrah-patriotism" will be replaced by the destruction of the phenomenon of faith in the world spiritual and cultural primacy of Russia as an imperial nation.

🔹Because all empires collapse, it is a natural part of their evolution.

What would you add to my thoughts?

Map Russia (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1747943433921065208/photo/1)

Russia bombed Ukrainian equivalent of
Home Depot/Lowes
on a Saturday afternoon
in Ukraine's 2nd largest city, Kharkiv.

"A glide bomb or stand-off bomb is a standoff weapon with flight control surfaces to give it a flatter, gliding flight path than that of a conventional bomb without such surfaces. This allows it to be released at a distance from the _target rather than right over it, allowing a successful attack without exposing the launching aircraft to anti-aircraft defenses near the _target." (Wikipedia)

Olena Halushka | @OlenaHalushka | 10:05 AM · May 25, 2024 {X}:
Co-founder of @ICUVua {International Centre for Ukrainian Victory}, board member at @AntAC_ua. Kyiv, Ukraine

Two russian glide bombs have just hit a huge construction hypermarket in Kharkiv, causing a massive fire. It's Saturday afternoon: I am horrified to think about the possible toll of this terrorist attack. Right now, two people are reportedly dead and 11 injured acc to governor

Photo (https://x.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1794369236728729661/photo/1)
________________________________

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:16 AM · May 26, 2024:

A video appeared showing the Russian strike on a construction supermarket in Kharkiv from inside the building.
Beyond horrible.
0:07 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1794658902304534566)

Over 200 people were in the supermarket when Russia hit it. At least 15 employees are missing.

Russia hit it deliberately during the weekend when a lot of people were there.

Extinguishing the fire is complicated because there is a significant amount of flammable materials and the risk of repeated strikes.

Police are studying surveillance cameras to find out how many people were inside.

0:18 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1794380166128439783/video/1)

0:19 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1794380166128439783/video/2)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 12:17 PM · May 26, 2024:

Sweden approves Ukrainian use of Swedish weapons against _targets in Russia. The government of Sweden should work to convince other allies to do the same - Pål Jonson, Defense Minister of Sweden.

"Ukraine is exposed to an unprovoked and illegal war of aggression by Russia. According to international law, Ukraine has the right to defend itself through military actions aimed at the enemy's territory as long as the military actions comply with the laws of war. Sweden stands behind international law and Ukraine's right to defend itself." - @PlJonson told Hallandsposten media.

https://hallandsposten.se/asikter/ledare/landgrans-ska-inte-skydda-rysk-angripar...

Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1794764896707510669/photo/1)
---------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:38 PM · May 22, 2024:

Thank you, Sweden!
This is powerful! This is inspiring. This is hope for Ukraine in these tough times.
1:37 (https://x.com/SwedishPM/status/1793186160824500326)

Chay Bowes @BowesChay | 11:38 AM · May 25, 2024:
Interested in History, Strategy (MA) GeoPolitics

Germany has reached “the limit of what is possible” in military assistance to Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has admitted.

Berlin announced a new aid package for Kiev on Friday, which included 8,500 155 mm shells, thats less than what Russia fires in a day.

Photo (https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1794392666693939631/photo/1)

Sudan offers naval base to Russia in exchange for weapons (Telegraph)

The Kremlin has offered weapons to Sudan in exchange for a naval logistics base on the Red Sea, a Sudanese general has said. Gen Yasser al-Atta, the deputy commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces, said that Russia will provide “vital weapons and munitions” for a harbour that is “not exactly a military base”...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:41 AM · May 28, 2024:

Russia's Elabuga drone factory in Tatarstan plans to produce 6,000 Shahed drones a year — The Wall Street Journal

It uses Iranian technology and workers from East Africa. In late April, the plant managed to stay ahead of schedule by delivering 4,500 drones to the occupier's army, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The publication notes that the drone factory “could affect the course of the war in Ukraine.” In addition to Shahed drones, it produces Albatros reconnaissance drones, which conduct photo reconnaissance of Ukrainian positions and movements on the front line.

In early April, the factory, which is located more than 1,200 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, was already _targeted by two drones.

https://wsj.com/world/the-russian-drone-plant-that-could-shape-the-war-in-ukrain...
---------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:09 AM · Apr 2, 2024:

Russian media report a drone attack on Elabuga in Tatarstan, Russia.
There is an assembly plant for the production of Iranian Shahed drones in Elabuga. The city is located 1,200 km from the border with Ukraine.

0:09 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1775042974532944378)

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 8:43 PM · May 27, 2024 {X}:

4/ The New York Times (NYT) reported on May 26 that Western intelligence officials stated that the Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) is behind a series of low-level sabotage operations throughout Europe that aim to disrupt Western arms supplies to Ukraine.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:37 PM · May 28, 2024:

‼️ The Russian army is not hiding the use of chemical weapons.
Russian Z-warrior Filatov admires the use of chemical weapons by the Russian army in Ukraine.

This video was unashamedly published by the official Telegram channel of the Russian state propaganda news agency RT. In the footage, Filatov says:
"Here you can see the gas mask that was hanging from the machine gunner. Cartridge boxes. Here is a gas grenade that we dropped."

0:43 ( https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1795524903652774043 )

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 2:00 PM · May 28, 2024:
The false narrative that Zelensky is illegitimate has been relentlessly pushed in Russian media and official rhetoric since May 20

Quote
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 12:49 PM · May 28, 2024:
⚡️Putin rejects Zelensky's legitimacy, claims his authority must be transferred to speaker.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin claimed on May 28 that presidential authority should be shifted to the speaker of Ukraine's parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's term has allegedly ended. "According to preliminary estimates, the Verkhovna Rada and its speaker remain the only legitimate authorities in Ukraine," Putin told journalists.

If martial law had not been imposed, Zelensky’s term would have ended on May 20. But Ukraine introduced martial law after Russia launched its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. The Martial Law Act explicitly bans presidential, parliamentary, and local elections.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:27 AM · May 29, 2024:

Poland has approved the use of weapons supplied by Ukraine for strikes against _targets in the Russian Federation, – Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk

“There are no such restrictions on Polish weapons that we supply to Ukraine. Poland's position is that there should be no restrictions in this regard. Ukraine should be able to fight with the equipment that is supplied to it,” @CTomczyk said.

0:48 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1795763946210644257)

>31 margd: contd.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:35 AM · May 29, 2024:

BREAKING: Sweden has been asked by NATO allies to delay Gripen sales to Ukraine

The official reason is that Ukraine needs to focus on F-16 deliveries, the unofficial reason is undoubtedly concerns about Sweden's willingness to green-light attacks on Russian territory. Belgium's F-16s came with a ban on this

Sweden asked to delay delivery of Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine
Khrystyna Bondarieva , Alona Mazurenko — Tuesday, 28 May 2024
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/28/7458009/

>37 margd: contd.

The nerve of Putin to challenge legitimacy of Ukrainian president, and to misrepresent the Ukrainian Constitution and the Ukrainian law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law". If dictator Putin can't kill Zelensky, all that is left is for him to spread misinformation on the Ukrainian President's legitimacy...

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 28, 2024
May 28, 2024 - ISW {Institute for the Study of War} Press

...The Ukrainian Constitution states that "if the term of office of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine expires during the period of martial law or a state of emergency, its powers shall be extended until the day of the first meeting of the first session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine elected after the abolition of the state of martial law or emergency."2 The Ukrainian law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law" prohibits "conducting elections for the President of Ukraine" while martial law is in effect... Putin inaccurately cited Article 111 of the Ukrainian Constitution, however, which actually states: "The President of Ukraine may be removed from office by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by impeachment if he commits treason or another crime."... Article 112 describes how "the performance of the duties of the President of Ukraine for the period before the election and entry into office of the new President of Ukraine is entrusted to the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine." Article 112, however, specifies that this transfer of power from the President to the Speaker only applies "in the case of early termination {emphasis added} of the powers of the President of Ukraine in accordance with Articles 108, 109, 110, 111 of this Constitution," which describe how "the powers of the President of Ukraine are prematurely terminated in the event of their resignation, inability fulfill their powers due to their health, removal from office by impeachment, and death." Putin's baseless claim that the Verkhovna Rada could abolish martial law and hold presidential elections "if {it} wanted to" is also incorrect, as the law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law" states that "before the end of the period for which martial law was imposed, and on the condition that the threat of attack or danger to the state independence of Ukraine and its territorial integrity is eliminated, the President of Ukraine may issue a decree on the abolition of martial law on the entire territory of Ukraine or in some of its localities, which must be immediately announced through the media."... Not only is the Verkhovna Rada not responsible for lifting martial law, but the Ukrainian President is also legally unable to lift martial law while Russia continues to attack Ukraine and pose a danger to Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, as it clearly does...

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-...

Panicked Russia Is Now Telling Reluctant Soldiers They Will Be Resurrected
‘DEATH DOES NOT EXIST’
Julia Davis | May 29, 2024

Russia’s state controlled propaganda outlets are resorting to ever more outlandish lines to try to convince people to sign up and join the war in Ukraine.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/panicked-russia-is-now-telling-reluctant-soldiers-...

max seddon @maxseddon | 4:13 PM · Jun 2, 2024:
moscow bureau chief FT {financial Times}...

Putin had three big asks from Xi in Beijing:
– Power of Siberia-2, which Gazprom needs to replace lost European exports
– more Chinese banking in Russia despite possible US sanctions
– for China to skip Ukraine's peace summit
He only got the last one.

Russia-China gas pipeline deal stalls over Beijing’s price demands
Max Seddon, Anastasia Stogneii, Henry Foy and Joe Leahy in Beijing | 2 Jun 2024

... Beijing’s tough stance on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline underscores how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left President Vladimir Putin increasingly dependent on Chinese leader Xi Jinping for economic support.

The people familiar with the matter said China had asked to pay close to Russia’s heavily subsidised domestic prices and would only commit to buying a small fraction of the pipeline’s planned annual capacity of 50bn cubic metres of gas.

Approval for the pipeline would transform the dire fortunes of Gazprom, Russia’s state gas export monopoly, by linking the Chinese market to gasfields in western Russia that once supplied Europe...

https://www.ft.com/content/f7a34e3e-bce9-4db9-ac49-a092f382c526

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:50 AM · Jun 4, 2024:

Crimea becomes a death trap for the Russians, – The Economist

Putin has invested huge amounts of money in military infrastructure in Crimea, and now it is under threat.

Ukraine is trying to make Crimea a liability for Putin, not an asset. The goal is to isolate the peninsula, "strangle" it as a logistics center, and thus drive Russian air and sea forces away from the south of Ukraine.

According to Ben Hodges, a former commander of American forces in Europe and a senior adviser to NATO on logistics, the Ukrainians are ‘systematically in the process of making Ukraine uninhabitable for Russian forces’."

The Economist notes that Ukraine has already demonstrated the ability of Franco-British Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, as well as its own naval drones, to _target Russian warships, in particular the large Ropucha landing ships, which are used as military transport vessels and most of which have been destroyed.

The Economist also emphasises that Ukrainian drones and missiles may have disabled up to half of the once formidable Black Sea Fleet. The rest of the Russian fleet has been forced to relocate from Sevastopol to the port of Novorossiysk, located more than 300 km away on the Russian mainland.

General Hodges says Russian troops have "no place to hide". With the help of satellite and aerial reconnaissance provided by NATO allies, their in-depth knowledge of the territory and covert forces on the ground, nothing can move in Crimea without the Ukrainians having knowledge of it. With the arrival of the ATACMS system and the improvements in its own drones, every square metre of the peninsula is within reach, including time-sensitive _targets such as convoys of aircraft and equipment moving along roads or railways.

https://economist.com/europe/2024/06/02/in-crimea-ukraine-is-beating-russia

Satellite photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1797898622660399527/photo/1)

Russians Love YouTube. That’s a Problem for the Kremlin
Justin Ling | Jun 4, 2024

YouTube remains the only major US-based social media platform available in Russia. It’s become “indispensable” to everyday people, making a ban tricky. Journalists and dissidents are taking advantage...

...VCIOM, a pollster loyal to the Kremlin, has found that a plurality of Russians still prefer to get their news from heavily censored Russian television, but their trust in the format has plummeted, from nearly 50 percent in 2016 to just 25 percent today. Meanwhile, trust in online news has jumped by roughly the same degree.

Meanwhile, as Western programming becomes rarer and rarer, many Russians are turning to YouTube for their primary source of entertainment—especially for kids’ programming. Eight of the 10 most-subscribed Russian YouTube channels, according to rankings compiled by analytics firm Socialblade, are _targeted at young children.

So Russians are losing faith in the state-approved TV news, increasingly trusting of online media, and are looking to YouTube for entertainment. It has delivered tens of millions of people right at the opposition’s doorstep.

Even if most Russian YouTube users are looking for content to pacify their children, bringing them on the platform has enormous benefits, {Vladimir Milov, a former deputy minister with the Russian government, a longtime Navalny associate, and a YouTube creator in his own right} says. “There's this magical black box which is called YouTube recommendations.” He says plenty of his followers don’t even watch his videos—they listen. If Russians are letting the algorithm choose their next video while they cook dinner or fold laundry, it increases the chances his voice will reach a Russian who has never heard him before.

Milov stresses that YouTube isn’t just a one-way service: Because it allows users to comment and chat anonymously, it provides an extraordinary chance for regular Russians to express themselves without fear of censorship...

https://www.wired.com/story/youtube-russia-propaganda-censorship-2024/

>44 margd: Great as that is, times in Russia are good.
Soaring wartime salaries are increasing support for Putin amongst the working class.
https://www.intellinews.com/soaring-wartime-salaries-are-increasing-support-for-...
LONG READ: Russia’s despair index result is the best ever, while Ukraine’s crashes
https://www.intellinews.com/long-read-russia-s-despair-index-result-is-the-best-...
Russia overtakes Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world in PPP terms
https://www.intellinews.com/russia-overtakes-japan-to-become-the-fourth-largest-...

>45 davidgn: Russia's economy is growing, but can it last? (BBC)

“It looks like the Russian economy managed to adjust to very unfavourable external conditions,” says Yevgeny Nadorshin, senior economist at PF Capital. ”Without any doubt sanctions broke a lot in the mechanism of operation inside the economy. But a lot has been restored. Adaptation is happening”... “The big issue was our understanding of what sanctions can and cannot do,” says Elina Ribakova, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It’s not like flipping a switch and Russia disappears. What sanctions can do is to throw a country off balance temporarily until it finds the way to work around the sanctions, until it finds alternative ways to get shipments, or sell its oil. We’re exactly in that space where Russia has found a workaround”... After more than two years of fighting, Russia’s economy has adapted to the pressures of war and sanctions. But the US is now threatening secondary sanctions on foreign banks aiding transactions with Moscow, and that is creating a whole new set of problems for Russia. “Products have slowed down coming into Russia,” says Chris Weafer. “Spare parts are more difficult to access. Every day there are stories of banks in China, Turkey and the Emirates refusing to deal with Russian transactions, whether it’s money from Russia to buy goods or money going back to Russia in payment for oil or other imports. Unless this is resolved, Russia will have a financial crisis by the autumn”...

Ambassador David Pressman @USAmbHungary | 6:20 AM · Jun 6, 2024 {X}:

Hungary's Foreign Minister {Péter Szijjártó} makes his 8th trip to Russia since Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Hungary's government says it is the "party of peace" while continuing to stand with Putin's party of war. Hungary’s addiction to Russian energy is dangerous and unnecessary. (1/2)
Photo (https://x.com/USAmbHungary/status/1798661349880602986/photo/1)

Minister Szijjártó is right: energy diversification is not a matter of ideology but one of physics. The laws of physics in Hungary are no different than the laws of physics in every single one of Hungary's EU partners, all of whom have chosen to reduce dependence on Putin. (2/2)
-----------------------------------

Jürgen Janger @JurgenJanger: unfortunately, Austria is just as dependent, with about 90% of its gas coming from Russia

PicassoRepublic 🇬🇧 🇮🇪 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 @PicassoRepublic: Is it addiction to Russian energy? - One must ask the question whether Orban, Fidesz MPs, Benefactors and Loyalists becoming some of the richest people in Hungary and Putins reputation for purchasing support - are these two facts linked? The next Panama Papers will be interesting

David @camcrod: This is much more than "just" dependence on Russian energy. As you well know, it is an ideological partnership and a dependence on Russian black money. Why don't the Americans speak clearly?

>46 John5918: Maybe. On the other hand, I've been seeing articles like that pretty regularly. Meanwhile, here's Carnegie.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/is-the-kremlin-overconfident-abou...

Concluding paragraph:

The most likely outcome is that Russia’s bloated wartime public sector will block any downsizing, but high interest rates will bring down inflation. In an economy subordinate to political imperatives, there are few incentives for sustainable development. Sooner or later, this will hurt the well-being of ordinary Russians. In other words, temporary fixes and a decline in living standards will add to the political and economic headwinds facing the Kremlin. But given the existing safety margins and the nature of Western sanctions, it could take Russia many years to reach the end of its ability to muddle through such challenges

Ukraine hasn't got years. This ends a lot sooner than that -- whether by a negotiated settlement, Ukrainian capitulation, or some kind of totally unpredictable escalation scenario.

(On which: Haven't seen Col. Wilkerson quite this strident in a long time. Col. Larry Wilkerson on Scott Ritter and Russia's Devastating Warning to NATO
https://youtu.be/0xV5qVEV-HY?si=gcBn9oOJpVaHsOw5&t=375
Crescendo around 13-15 mins. )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:09 AM · Jun 10, 2024:

Russia is sending young Africans to die in its war against Ukraine – Bloomberg

The Kremlin has forced thousands of migrants and foreign students to fight alongside Russian troops in its war against Ukraine, according to assessments from European officials.
Using tactics first deployed by the Wagner mercenary group, Russian officials have with increasing frequency been threatening not to extend the visas of African students and young workers unless they agree to join the military.
Moscow has also been enlisting convicts from its prisons while some Africans in Russia on work visas have been detained and forced to decide between deportation or fighting, one European official said.
Russia’s practice of sending migrants and students into battle under duress dates back to earlier in the war. Those troops suffer especially high casualty rates because they are increasingly deployed in risky offensive maneuvers to protect more highly trained units.
According to reports citing Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has engaged in a global recruitment drive to enlist foreign mercenaries in at least 21 countries, including several nations in Africa. Army recruitment campaigns offer lucrative signing bonuses and salaries for those who’ll join up as contract soldiers. Recruiters have also _targeted migrants and students who previously looked for employment in Russia, and in some cases have lured others over with promises of lucrative work before forcing them to train and deploy to the front.
There are 35,000-37,000 African students currently in Russia, according to Yevgeny Primakov head of Rossotrudnichestvo, an organization devoted to "spreading knowledge about Russia abroad".

Source: https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-09/russia-ukraine-war-africans-force...

Photo recruitment mural ( https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1800138143401709685/photo/1 )
------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:24 AM · May 15, 2024:

"English? Look: North is Ukraine, South is Russia. Do you know where the sun comes up? Don't shoot there!"

Russian soldiers inspect a position where mercenaries from Nepal who do not speak Russian were left alone. Russians don't speak English, Nepalis don't know any Russian.

2:12 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1790674552294432830)

G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. Here’s how it will work
FATIMA HUSSEIN | June 13, 2024

...Most of the money would be in the form of a loan mostly guaranteed by the U.S. government, backed by profits being earned on roughly $260 billion in immobilized Russian assets. The vast majority of that money is held in European Union nations.

...A U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview the agreement said the G7 leaders’ official statement due out Friday will leave the door open to trying to confiscate the Russian assets entirely.

...Ukraine will be able to spend the money in several areas, including for military, economic and humanitarian needs and reconstruction, the U.S. official said.

Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the goal is “to provide the necessary resources to Ukraine now for its economic energy and other needs so that it’s capable of having the resilience necessary to withstand Russia’s continuing aggression.”

Another goal is to get the money to Ukraine quickly...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-frozen-assets-loan-39d8619f0836006...

Putin offers truce if Ukraine exits Moscow-occupied areas and drops NATO bid — a nonstarter for Kyiv
DASHA LITVINOVA | June 14, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Friday to “immediately” order a cease-fire in Ukraine and begin negotiations if Kyiv started withdrawing troops from the four regions annexed by Moscow in 2022 and renounced plans to join NATO.

Such a deal appears a nonstarter for Kyiv, which wants to join the military alliance and has demanded that Russia withdraw its troops from all of its territory...

https://apnews.com/article/putin-russia-ukraine-war-4f58423548b3d2e8594c9d9eb8e9...

Moldova's fall 2024 presidential election: Russian plot...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:54 AM · Jun 14, 2024:

"That is why today, in defense of our shared democratic values, we are taking this step to warn our democratic partners and Allies that Russian actors are carrying out a plot to influence outcomes of Moldova's fall 2024 presidential election. They intend to incite protests in Moldova should a pro-Russia candidate not win." - a joint statement by the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America regarding the upcoming elections in Moldova.

"The Kremlin relies on lies, deceit, corruption and disinformation to undermine sovereignty and democracy," the statement says.

Finally, a spade is called a spade. This brings Russia's schemes out in the open.

https://canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2024/06/joint-statement-by-the-governme...

Text title page (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1801599055841165487/photo/1)

Ukraine Front Line @EuromaidanPR | 5:08 AM · Jun 15, 2024:
#1 Independent Citizen Media about Ukraine | runs by EMPR (EuromaidanPR) | Official Twitter of International PR Secretariat for HQ of National Resistance 2014

russian occupiers in Crimea are preparing to take all museum collections from the peninsula to russia.
The heads of museum institutions of Crimea received a letter from the so-called "Ministry of Culture of the Republic of Crimea".
Managers were ordered to prepare museum valuables for "evacuation", that is, for theft.

Text Russian
https://x.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1801904715992555672/photo/1
https://x.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1801904715992555672/photo/2

Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding (BBC)

With many of its soldiers dead, injured or exhausted, the Ukrainian government has stepped up its efforts to mobilise more men. A new law, introduced in May, requires every man aged between 25 and 60 to log their details on an electronic database so they can be called up. Conscription officers are on the hunt for those avoiding the register, pushing more men who do not want to serve into hiding... More than two years into the war, almost everyone knows someone who has been killed. Grim news has poured out from the front, of Ukraine being vastly outnumbered and outgunned... The mobilisation squads have a fearsome reputation, especially in Odesa, for pulling people off buses and from train stations and ferrying them straight to enlistment centres. For those avoiding the draft, public transport is now off limits. So too are restaurants, supermarkets, and weekend trips to the park to play football... On a Tuesday morning, a dozen conscription officers descended on Odesa’s main train station, led by a seasoned veteran sailor, Anatoliy, and his younger, more muscular counterpart Oleksiy. They paced the forecourt, stopping men of serving age, to check they were registered on the database. But the well-mannered pair had a tough time finding eligible men. Most were either too young or had received some sort of exemption. After a couple of hours Anatoliy conceded that it was highly possible men were hiding from them. “Some people run away from us. This happens quite often,” he said... At the enlistment centre around the corner, an optimistic note taped to the door notified would-be-recruits that those who had come voluntarily could skip the queues. But there were no queues. A lone man sat waiting to be seen. When I asked whether he was there out of choice, he told me he had been “kidnapped” that morning and brought against his will. “The officers encircled me so I couldn’t run,” he stuttered in shock. “I’m devastated." One of the officers at the centre, Vlad, conceded that there were barely any willing volunteers these days...

For Ukrainians in Canada, new conscription rules increase pressure to fight
Soldier on Ukrainian front lines laments those who have fled
John Mazerolle, John Chipman | Jun 16, 2024

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/sunday/ukraine-conscription-1.7227808

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:13 AM · Jun 19, 2024:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford. Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org. Author "Russia in Africa" & "Putin's War on Ukraine"

BREAKING: Vladimir Putin calls for a review of the "indefinite restrictive regime" of UN sanctions against North Korea

Before Putin arrived {in N Korea}, Putin aide Yury Ushakov boasted of a nine-fold increase in trade

Russian commentator Kirill Kotkov dismissed the idea of sanctioning a "friendly country" North Korea

Now Putin wants to fully torpedo a sanctions regime that Russia helped establish in 2006
------------------------------

Kim Jong-Un claimed that North Korea's "fiery friendship" with Russia is stronger than during Soviet times

In the post-Stalin era, this is valid

Nikita Khrushchev and Kim Il-Sung had a fractious relationship. Soviet-Japanese normalisation and DPRK-China ties caused problems.
------------------------------

Obviously, the Soviet Union occupied a much larger share of North Korea's economic support than Russia today, even during the 1980s

While North Korea relies more heavily on China to survive, the Kim regime's relationship with Moscow seems to have more warmth than with Xi

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:48 AM · Jun 21, 2024

Ukraine can now use American-supplied weapons to hit any Russian forces attacking from across the border, not just those in the region near Kharkiv - Politico, citing US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

He told PBS on Tuesday that the agreement with Ukraine about firing American weapons into Russia extends to “anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional Ukrainian territory.”

"This is not about geography. It’s about common sense. If Russia is attacking or about to attack from its territory into Ukraine, it only makes sense to allow Ukraine to hit back against the forces that are hitting it from across the border," Mr. Sullivan added.

https://politico.com/news/2024/06/20/us-says-ukraine-can-hit-inside-russia-anywh...

Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804028589936984217/photo/1)

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 9:41 PM · Jun 20, 2024:
NEW: Putin launched a major information operation during his recent visit to North Korea and Vietnam on June 18 and 19 aimed at sabotaging efforts by Ukraine's partners to clearly define a common strategic objective and strategy to decisively defeat Russia’s illegal war of conquest in Ukraine. (1/3)
4 maps Ukraine invasion ()
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1803966461767028979/photo/1
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1803966461767028979/photo/2
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1803966461767028979/photo/3
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1803966461767028979/photo/4

2/ Putin implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West enables Ukraine to decisively defeat Russia in order to undermine the international community's cohering strategic vision of support for Ukraine.

3/ Putin’s nuclear threat is part of an ongoing Kremlin nuclear blackmail campaign aimed at dissuading Ukraine’s allies from decisively committing to defeating Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and is therefore highly unlikely to result in actual nuclear escalation. http://isw.pub/UkrWar062024
--------------------------------------------

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 9:59 PM · Jun 20, 2024:
South Korea responded to the Russian-North Korean comprehensive strategic partnership agreement on June 20 and stated that it will reconsider its previous ban on sending lethal military assistance to Ukraine. (1/4)

2/ Putin simultaneously attempted to downplay aspects of the Russia-North Korea agreement potentially in response to South Korea's concerns during a June 20 press conference in Vietnam.

3/ Putin also used the press conference to reiterate a series of known information operations feigning Russia's interest in good faith negotiations with Ukraine, including by characterizing Russia's offensive operation into Kharkiv Oblast as solely defensive.

4/ Putin also met with Vietnamese President Tô Lâm, Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính, and General Secretary of the Central Committee of Vietnam’s Community Party Nguyễn Phú Trọng during his visit and discussed bilateral relations and the Soviet Union's and Russia's support of Vietnam during the 20th and 21st centuries. http://isw.pub/UkrWar062024
_________________________________

Radek Sikorski @radeksikorski | 4:42 AM · Jun 21, 2024:
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Poland

V.Putin worries that losing in UKR would end 1000 y. of Russian statehood.
He overworries.
1. Moscow was only founded in 1147.
2. RU survived defeats in Crimea War, RU-JAP war, WW1, 1920 invasion of PL, war in Afghanistan and the Cold War.
3. There's national life after empire.

>58 margd: contd.

South Korea to make ‘big mistake’ by arming Ukraine, warns Putin
Gregor Stuart Hunter | June 21, 2024

Vladimir Putin warned South Korea that it will be making a “very big mistake” if it sends weapons to Ukraine to defend against Russia.

Moscow would make “decisions which are unlikely to please the current leadership of South Korea” if Seoul decides to supply arms to Kyiv...

Putin’s threats come just days after agreeing to a defence pact with Kim Jong-un while on a state visit to Pyongyang, in which he praised the North Korean dictator for “firmly supporting” Russia’s war in Ukraine.

...In response to Moscow’s embrace of Pyongyang, Chang Ho-jin, the South Korean national security advisor, told reporters on Thursday that Seoul will review the possibility of supplying weapons to Ukraine. Currently, it has provided only non-lethal aid such as mine clearance equipment.

South Korea’s presidential office said: “Any cooperation that directly or indirectly helps North Korea increase its military power is a violation of UN Security Council resolutions and is subject to monitoring and sanctions by the international community.”...

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-big-mistake-arming-100616888.html

Kim-Putin deal: why this is a coded message aimed at China and how it worries Beijing
Chee Meng Tan and Chi Zhang | June 21, 2024

...China has misgivings about how things are unfolding, which reports suggest prompted Chinese president Xi Jinping’s call to Putin to call off the latter’s visit to Pyongyang. Obviously, Putin didn’t heed Xi’s request.

...China was already worried that whatever control it has over North Korea was weakened when Pyongyang reportedly supplied almost 7,000 containers worth of weapons to Moscow.

...The Kremlin knows that one of Beijing’s greatest fears is that a renegade North Korea may one day point its weapons at China.

...China’s mutual defence pact with North Korea suggests that both nations are close allies. But North Korea has a tradition of defying China, and this deal with Russia might embolden it further – and that will be worrying Beijing.

...for Russia to stand a winning chance in the war that he started in 2022, requires its partner of “no limits” to stand firmly by Russia’s side.

But beyond supplying Russia with the dual-use technology (which could be used for civilian or military purposes) to fuel Russia’s industrial war complex, China appears to have fallen short of supplying actual weapons to Russia.

Even if China wanted to provide weapons to Russia it can’t. This is because it fears further antagonising the west, and triggering economic sanctions would prove lethal for an already ailing Chinese economy.

China knows that it needs a strong Russia so that the west doesn’t consolidate its resources to deal with the perceived Chinese threat. But on the other hand, helping Moscow may prove too much for Beijing to stomach since that would harm China’s economy.

So, Putin needs to force Beijing’s hand, and the peace treaty that he just signed with North Korea might just do the trick.

https://theconversation.com/kim-putin-deal-why-this-is-a-coded-message-aimed-at-...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:46 AM · Jun 23, 2024 {X}:

Russian Telegram channels shared a video. According to them, these are strikes on Kherson region of Ukraine.

0:24 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804798211615277315)

Russia finalizes train line to connect to the occupied Ukrainian territories in the Sea of Azov and Crimea
Cristian Segura | Jun 21, 2024

...new railway line {Tavrida-2} that will connect the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don with Crimea along the Sea of Azov {will} come into operation in soon, which will be a significant step forward in Russia’s efforts to consolidate its military presence in four partially occupied provinces.

... is the name of this train line... Once completed, the 310-mile railway line will be the second rail network connecting Crimea — the peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 — with Russian territory. The first train line crosses the Kerch Strait bridge...

...the design of the line, which has been built in record time, indicates that its primary purpose will be to supply Moscow’s military forces.

...Defense Express recalled in its analysis that, since World War II, military theory has indicated that bombing railway sections is ineffective. These are easy to repair and, as in the case of Ukraine’s rail network, there are multiple lines that can divert a convoy if tracks have been destroyed, meaning it can continue towards its destination, even if the journey is longer. That is why, as military experts have been explaining to this newspaper since 2023, Russia does not bomb railway lines in Ukraine, even though weapons supplies from NATO countries enter via the train line that connects the country to Poland.

The advantage for Ukraine is that the new Russian line has only one track. And there are at least two newly built bridges over which the trains will pass. These will be a weak point for the occupying troops. Defense Express estimated that the best place to strike will be in the areas where convoys wait for the oncoming train to pass. The disadvantage for Ukraine is that destroying a stretch of track, if not with an infiltrated sabotage team, is a small _target that requires enormous precision if it is to be struck with missiles or drones. Making the situation more difficult, Russia this year reinforced its network of anti-aircraft defenses on the southern front.

https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-06-21/russia-finalizes-train-line-...
__________________________________

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:03 AM · Jun 23, 2024:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org. Author Russia in Africa & Putin's War on Ukraine {no touchstones}

BREAKING: Ukrainian partisans sabotage a transit hub in Rostov-on-Don that supplies the Russian military in Donbas
ATESH has taken credit for the attack. The Rostov-Mariupol railway transit axis is crucial for Russian supplies to the Southern Military District and could also impede maritime operations
-------------------------------------------

Resistance sabotages railway section to occupied Mariupol in Russia's Rostov-on-Don – photo, video
Roman Petrenko | Sunday, 23 June 2024

ATESH underground resistance movement has carried out a sabotage in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don – an unknown person set fire to a relay cabinet on the Rostov-on-Don-Mariupol railway section...

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/23/7462142/

Muslim terrorist (?) attack synagogue, churches in Russia:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:28 PM · Jun 23, 2024:

In Makhachkala, unidentified people who attacked a synagogue left writings on the door, one of them is "2:120".

This is a pointer to the second Surah of the Qur'an: "Never will the Jews be pleased with thee. nor yet the Christians, unless thou follow their own creeds. Say, "God's guidance is the true guidance". If you were to follow their desires after what has come to you of knowledge, you would have against Allāh no protector or helper".

In Makhachkala, locals are hiding inside. Combat in the streets.

Russian law enforcers have blocked shooters who are hiding in a restaurant building in Derbent.

Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804944724119179322)
-------------------------------------------

Ken Koop @kennkoop | 2:34 PM · Jun 23, 2024:

Also 8:39 - the verse commands Muslims to fight against disbelievers until they are subjugated under Islam

And fight them until there is no fitnah and {until} the religion, all of it, is for Allah . And if they cease - then indeed, Allah is Seeing of what they do.
_______________________________
ETA:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:17 PM · Jun 23, 2024:
Russian media report that a school building is burning by the church. There is combat in the area.
0:15 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804941852648390998)
______________________________
ETA:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:41 PM · Jun 23, 2024:
Police and Russian Guards by the church in Makhachkala. According to police, there are bo {no?} hostages inside. 19 people are hiding in the church, shooters didn't manage to get inside.
0:21 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804947808950309292)
______________________________
ETA:

Russia: Gunmen hit synagogue, churches in Dagestan
DW | 23 June 2024

Unknown assailants killed a priest and several police officers while _targeting Orthodox churches and a synagogue in the Muslim-majority state of Dagestan, in southern Russia.

...southern Russian cities of Derbent and Makhachkala, Dagestan. Security forces were responding to unknown assailants launching attacks on a synagogue and an Orthodox church in Derbent, as well as a church and a police station in the state capital of Makhachkala, some 100 kilometers (62 miles) away.

... "According to preliminary information, one Orthodox priest and several police officers were killed in the terrorist attacks," Russian investigators said. A church guard is also believed to have been killed alongside the priest in Makhachkala.

A fire was reported to have broken out after a gunfight at the synagogue and two attackers are said to have died in the gunfight. A total of six police officers had been killed and 23 injured...A manhunt is currently underway...

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-gunmen-hit-synagogue-churches-in-dagestan/a-6945130...
_______________________________
ETA:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 12:51 PM · Jun 23, 2024:

First footage where faces of the shooters are visible appeared.
Russian "Z-bloggers" already blame Ukraine.
0:26 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804920349491855461)
_______________________________
ETA: ...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:28 PM · Jun 23, 2024:
Assault on the church in Makhachkala where shooters reportedly are.
0:15 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804959666591379772)
_______________________________
ETA: a 3rd location?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:18 PM · Jun 23, 2024:

Magomed Omarov, head of Sergokalinsk area of Dagestan, was detained.
During his detaining and the search in his home, an attack was launched on the police car.
Magomed Omarov was in the vehicle that was shot.
0:27 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804957198604259484)

Russian Telegram channels report that unidentified persons shot at a police car in Sergokala village. One police officer was wounded.
0:27 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804957198604259484)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:37 AM · Jun 30, 2024

NATO officials have "strong suspicions" that Russia may have mined critical EU submarine infrastructure in the North Sea, the British newspaper The Times reported.

According to the publication, such fears are based on data obtained from companies managing key oil and gas rigs, pipelines, electricity and telecommunications cables.

Electricity and telephone cables, as well as oil and gas pipelines, were key _targets for Russian intelligence services, especially after the start of Russia's full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the article states.

According to the Belgian security services, no evidence of cable mining in Belgian or Dutch territorial waters in the North Sea was found. However, at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, explosives were found on one of the British cables.

A study by Belgian newspaper De Tijd, which used information from ship logs, found that more than 160 non-military Russian vessels had engaged in 945 suspicious activities over the past decade. At least 749 of the 945 suspicious maneuvers were carried out within one kilometer of pipelines in the North Sea, The Times material indicated. Another 72 suspicious actions were made in the area where electricity cables are located, and the remaining 124 - in areas where telecommunications cables are laid.

"Russian knowledge of where cables and pipelines run is crucial if the Russians want to sabotage energy communications systems, tap into or manipulate communications cables, British journalists emphasize.

In general, the scale of operations of Russian security services abroad has reached a level "not seen since the Cold War," the publication says. Observers believe that Moscow "has had to rely increasingly on foreign nationals and, in particular, representatives of the criminal world" to rebuild its network of agents after the expulsion of hundreds of Russian spies working in Western countries under the guise of diplomats.

Source:
Killings, coups and chaos: inside Putin's secret spy war on Europe
Moscow's operations have escalated across the continent, from employing thugs for hits in sympathetic countries to massive covert campaigns to sow havoc...
https://thetimes.com/world/europe/article/killings-coups-and-chaos-inside-putins...

Image (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1807332507634831720/photo/1)

Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture | 10:56 PM · Jul 1, 2024 {X}:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1807971554443382982.html

Back in May, I explored the likely Russian objectives for its military operations in 2024, and how it was progressing towards them. Russia has built strategic momentum with its assaults on Ukraine in the past six months. However, they have largely failed to exploit their opportunities. 1/12 🧵 🇺🇦

2/ Russia has made some progress on the ground and yet even this has come at massive costs. For the gain of around 513 square km, they have lost around 180 thousand personnel. Losing 360 people for every km is a poor return on investment - in any war.

3/ And, as this graph from @ragnarbjartur {Ragnar Gudmundsson, political scients & economist, Iceland} shows, Russian casualties have only increased in the past six months during its 2024 offensives.
Bar graph Russian losses March 2022- June 2024 (https://x.com/WarintheFuture/status/1807971561120715171/photo/1)

4/ Russia has failed to stop Ukrainian strikes on Russian bases and oil infrastructure in Russia, and is failing in its campaign to defend against strikes against #Crimea.

5/ Russia does however have a very robust strategic influence and misinformation campaign. But, even that is yet to persuade Ukraine's key supporters to reduce their support.

6/ Russia has probably developed a better approach to strategic adaptation than the Ukrainians have. This is allowing them to out-produce the Ukrainians and to continuously recruit. But these are only providing marginal improvements in the tactical and operational effectiveness of the Russian military, and are disproportionate to the massive losses in manpower and equipment.

7/ The Russian military had a significant opportunity at the end of 2023 after Ukraine's military culminated in its counter offensive in the south and with the shortfalls that in manpower and munitions that began to tell in 2024.

8/ And yet, the Russians over the last six months have generally failed to capitalise on this convergence of opportunities. And in squandering such enormous quantities of troops in lots of smaller actions across the front line, Russia is less able to build a better quality, large force that might be able to undertake larger scale offensive operations.
https://x.com/MassDara/status/1806722109474799636

9/ This was probably Russia’s best opportunity to make significant gains on the battlefield which it could then turn into significantly increased political and diplomatic pressure on Ukraine for peace negotiations.

10/ Russia may still have time to conduct offensive activities against Ukraine before they culminate. But, given Russian losses so far, the lack of any new, wide-ranging offensive doctrine, and that Ukraine’s strategic prospects are improving, Russia appears to have blown what might have been its last chance to strike a decisive blow against Ukraine in this war.

11/ The question now is whether #Ukraine, which seeks to liberate more of its territory occupied by Russia, can build all the different physical, moral and intellectual elements of offensive combat power to do better than Russia has either later this year or in 2025?

12/ You can read my detailed special assessment on this topic (for free) at Futura Doctrina.
Has Russia Blown its 2024 Opportunity in Ukraine?
Russia may never get an another opportunity like the past six months. An updated assessment of Russia’s 2024 offensives.
Mick Ryan | Jul 02, 2024
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/has-russia-blown-its-2024-opportunity

Negotiated outcome most likely result of Russia-Ukraine war, major poll says (Guardian)

A negotiated outcome with Russia, as opposed to an outright Ukrainian military victory, is now seen as the most likely outcome in most European countries, according to a major poll of 15 countries. Support for Ukraine’s cause remains strong across Europe despite battlefield reverses, but European voters increasingly regard arming Ukraine as necessary not to achieve a complete Ukrainian battlefield victory, but instead to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in future negotiations with Russia...

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 10:38 PM · Jul 2, 2024:
Columnist @TheDailyBeast, creator of the Russian Media Monitor, sanctioned by Russia, member of @TheEmmys. "I watch Russian state TV, so you don't have to."

Meanwhile in Russia: Vitaly Tretyakov, Dean of the Higher School of Television, argued that negotiations with Ukraine are pointless, until Zelensky and "everyone who stands behind him" get annihilated.

Vitaly Tretyakov argues against negotiations with Ukraine (2:45)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4K67i9Hmkw

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:38 AM · Jul 3, 2024:

Putin and Xi Jinping have arrived to Kazakhstan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Leaders of Turkey, Mongolia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and vice-president of Iran will also be there for the event.

Xi Jinping was met by Kazakhstan president himself, and aircraft with the colors of the Chinese flags flew in his honor.

Putin was greeted by the prime minister of Kazakhstan, and there was no show for him (they arrived at different times).

The two videos of them being greeted are significantly different, don't you think?
1:05 Xi arrives
0:33 Putin arrives
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1808450208172265521
----------------------------------------

From quick google search, Kazakh PM also greeted leaders of Tajikhstan and Pakistan. However for the Pakistani president he was accompanied by Deputy PM, Foreign Minister, and others...

"{Xi} said he looks forward to meeting with Kazakh President ... to plan the way forward for closer China-Kazakhstan cooperation and draw a new blueprint for the further growth of bilateral relations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization." https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202407/03/WS66848d77a31095c51c50bfe6.html

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:26 AM · Jul 3, 2024:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org. Author "Russia in Africa" & "Putin's War on Ukraine"

BREAKING: Russia docks two naval ships in Venezuela
Russia is predictably moving naval assets from Cuba to Venezuela
The Akademik Pashin tanker and Admiral Gorshkov frigate are two key assets from Russia's Northern Fleet that are projecting power in Latin America
Russia is also bringing a tugboat and nuclear powered submarine

How many Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine?
Four charts illustrate a grim new milestone
Jul 5th 2024

RUSSIA DOES not broadcast the number of its soldiers that have been killed or injured since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But various sources suggest that it has recently passed a new milestone. Our four charts below visualise the toll...

Estimated Russian soldier casualties in Ukraine

Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine (https://x.com/Tendar/status/1809924688199479698/photo/1)

Estimated Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine (age, % male population)
Our third chart shows the effect of these losses on Russia’s demography. The greatest losses have been among those aged between 35 and 39, 27,000 of whom are estimated to have been killed between February 2022 and June 2024. But as a percentage of Russia’s male population, losses of those aged between 45 and 49 have been most severe. The latest estimates suggest that roughly 2% of all Russian men aged between 20 and 50 may have been either killed or severely wounded in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war...

Estimated Russian soldiers killed (Ukraine 2022-2024, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Ukraine 2014-2022)
Russia’s losses in Ukraine since 2022 dwarf the number of casualties from all its wars since the second world war combined...

...On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that around 30,000 soldiers have been killed, though the true number is likely to be much higher. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians are also thought to be dead (the confirmed tally is just over 10,000 but at least 22,000 are estimated to have died in Mariupol alone)...

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/07/05/how-many-russian-soldiers-ha...

Quite a good update out of Berlin.

LONG READ: The war in Ukraine is inching towards a ceasefire as pressures mount
https://www.intellinews.com/long-read-the-war-in-ukraine-is-inching-towards-a-ce...

Russian paramilitaries in Central African Republic accused of sexual violence
The World (7:05)
Chris Harland-Dunaway | Jul. 3, 2024

In the Central African Republic, Russian paramilitaries under the banner of the Wagner Mercenary Group, and now in many cases under the umbrella of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Africa Corps, are accused of sexual violence against civilians. The World’s Marco Werman speaks with Philip Obaji Jr., a correspondent for the Daily Beast, about his investigation in CAR which exposes systematic rapes of young women and girls by Russian paramilitaries.

https://theworld.org/segments/2024/07/03/russian-paramilitaries-in-central-afric...

Putin bombs kids with cancer...

Oleksandra Matviichuk @avalaina | 5:18 AM · Jul 8, 2024:
head of the Center for Civil Liberties (Ukraine)/ Nobel Peace Prize 2022/ Democracy Defender Award of OSCE 2016 {Kyiv}

Children's hospital in Kyiv right now. Kids are under the rubble video

0:17 (https://x.com/avalaina/status/1810242106901844112)
video @United24media
--------------------------------------

Akash Maniam 🇺🇦 @ManiamAkash
Whatever draft document they were prepping for the NATO summit, just tear it up. Invite Ukraine and give them everything to ensure russia cannot ever do this again.

Sandy @sandiechill
A temper tantrum because Le Penn lost, at the expense of innocent children. Monstrous.

How Donald Trump Shifted Kids-Cancer Charity Money Into His Business
Dan Alexander | Apr 14, 2022
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2017/06/06/how-donald-trump-shifted-ki...

No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen @NoLieWithBTC
Marine Le Pen: “The policies I represent are the policies that are represented by Trump and Putin.”
Her party just lost in a major upset.
0:09 (https://x.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1810085577397608770)
From sophia aram

#73 contd. A children's hospital -- and more...

Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa | 4:06 PM · Jul 8, 2024:

Today, Russia struck Ukrainian cities, resulting in over 170 injuries. As of now, 37 fatalities have been reported, including three children. My condolences go out to their families and loved ones.

In total, nearly 100 facilities were damaged, including a children's hospital, ordinary houses, kindergartens, a maternity hospital, a college, and a business center. The rubble is still being cleared at these sites.

Russian terrorists must be held accountable for this. Mere concern does not stop terror. Condolences are not a weapon. We need to shoot down Russian missiles. Russian combat aircraft must be destroyed where they are based. Strong steps must be taken to eliminate any security deficit.

The world has the necessary strength to do this. Our partners are capable of making it happen. Decisions are needed as soon as possible.

1:22 (https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1810405073023021081)
--------------------------------------

Michael McFaul McFaul
Putin is daring NATO. I hope the response from the alliance this week will be strong.

>73 margd: >74 margd: Sounds like that might be the response to our cluster munitions raining down on that packed beach in Sebastopol.

Real force on you

>70 margd:, >71 davidgn:

As usual, I found this week's video analysis by Perun (an Australian defence analyst on YouTube) informative and worth the time to watch it.

Russian court jails theatre figures over IS wives play (BBC)

A Russian playwright and a theatre director have been found guilty of “justifying terrorism” by a military court in Moscow. Director Yevgenia Berkovich and playwright Svetlana Petrichuk were sentenced to six years each for the production of their play The Brave Falcon Finist. Loosely based on true events, the play tells the story of Russian women who travelled to Syria during the country's civil war to marry members of the Islamic State group. The two women's defence lawyer vowed to appeal against the verdict. Held partly behind closed doors, the trial heightened alarm about freedom of expression in Russia among members of the country's artistic community...

>75 davidgn: But Americuh?? Really?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:36 PM · Jul 8, 2024 {X}:

Putin speaking today.
He definitely already knows about the destroyed hospitals in Kyiv. About the dead.
The vile smile of a cannibal.

By now we know of 36 people killed and 140 wounded as a result of a massive missile strike on Ukraine by the Russian armed forces.

0:16 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1810367323515064342)

>79 margd: I'm not arguing a moral equivalency. But if you're assuming Putin is responding to something, there are more compelling events to point to than positing a Putin "tantrum because LePen lost."

Russia must be feeling the blowback? Excuses sound all too familiar... Won't change outcome of French election. UN Security Council resolution, however futile. Might stiffen NATO spine (meeting this week)? Ukraine even less likely to negotiate?

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 8:47 PM · Jul 8, 2024:

NEW: A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in central Kyiv during a wider series of missile strikes _targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the day on July 8. (1/3)
Text (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1810475877295423780/photo/1)

2/ Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to deflect responsibility for the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital strike by making false claims about the missiles involved and the state of the hospital – all contrary to available evidence.
Text (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1810475880428286177/photo/1)

3/ Many of these false Russian information operations would not absolve Russian forces of legal or moral responsibility for the impacts of their strikes against Ukraine even if true.
More in tonight's assessment: http://isw.pub/UkrWar070824
Text (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1810475882630312186/photo/1)
----------------------------------------

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2024
Jul 8, 2024 - ISW Press
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1810475882630312186/photo/1

Rage as Putin bombs a children’s hospital in Kyiv, but know there is a way to try him for his crimes (Guardian)

By former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown

This week’s bombing of the main children’s hospital in the heart of Kyiv is the latest and most gruesome reminder of Vladimir Putin’s war crimes. They cannot go unpunished. Nato’s summit in Washington DC is the right moment not just to recommit to the defence of Ukraine, but also to deepen and hasten the inquiry of the international criminal court (ICC) into Russian atrocities... “We are sending all information and evidence about attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities to the ICC prosecutor’s office,” the Ukrainian prosecutor general, Andriy Kostin, said after discussing the attack on the children’s hospital with the ICC’s lead prosecutor, Karim Khan...

Justice Department Leads Efforts Among Federal, International, and Private Sector Partners to Disrupt Covert Russian Government-Operated Social Media Bot Farm (Press Release)
Dept of Justice | 9 July 2024

The Justice Department today announced the seizure of two domain names and the search of 968 social media accounts used by Russian actors to create an AI-enhanced social media bot farm that spread disinformation in the United States and abroad. The social media bot farm used elements of AI to create fictitious social media profiles — often purporting to belong to individuals in the United States — which the operators then used to promote messages in support of Russian government objectives, according to affidavits unsealed today...

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-leads-efforts-among-federal-in...

Where does Yulia Navalnya live? Russia issues arrest warrant for Alexei Navalny’s widow
María Camila Mora & Greg Heilman | Jul 9th, 2024

A Moscow court has accused Yulia Navalnaya, Alexei Navalny’s widow, of being part of an extremist organization and has issued an arrest warrant.

...She is currently residing in Germany where she went following her husband’s death.

If she returns to Russia or is extradited, she could be sentenced to between two and six years in prison, in addition to a fine that could reach 600,000 rubles (approximately 6,800 dollars). The warrant is valid for at least two months for her arrest in Russian territory or her extradition, according to the Interfax agency.

Recently, Yulia Navalnaya called on the international community not to recognize the results of the Russian elections last March, in which President Vladimir Putin was re-elected. Navalnaya urged Western leaders not to legitimize these elections, arguing that they lacked opposition candidates and were rigged...

https://en.as.com/latest_news/where-does-yulia-navalnya-live-russia-issues-arres...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:52 AM · Jul 10, 2024

Russia served a dish called "Chicken Kyiv" at a luncheon celebrating its presidency in the UN Security Council - after the missile of Okhmatdyt children's hospital and the Security Council meeting on the Russian attack on July 8.
These creatures who have lost their human form have once again shown the world that they are cannibals.
Everyone already knows that.
Menu (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1811020785328525366/photo/1)

Post
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Anton Gerashchenko
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Russia served a dish called "Chicken Kyiv" at a luncheon celebrating its presidency in the UN Security Council - after the missile of Okhmatdyt children's hospital and the Security Council meeting on the Russian attack on July 8.
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Elizabeth #Fella I Dissent 💙 Abbeth
And look at the wine, specifically chosen from the Russian River Valley {California}. Time to rename that area to Ukraine River Valley.

Ingrida Šimonytė @IngridaSimonyte | 6:51 AM · Jul 10, 2024:

🇱🇹 {Lithuanian} Government just allocated 1 mln EUR to support recovery of Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv 🇺🇦 and other medical facilities brutally and intentionally shelled by russia.
The only way to stop the terrorist state is by scaling up support to Ukraine‘s victory. The only just way to support Ukraine's recovery is by making the aggressor pay.
________________________________

German Embassy London @GermanEmbassy | 6:37 AM · Jul 9, 2024

Following the atrocious Russian strikes on the children's hospital in Kyiv, Germany's Health Minister Lauterbach said that Germany will take in sick children in need.

A rescue flight leaves tomorrow, 10 July.

Germany stands unwaveringly by Ukraine's side.

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 10:25 AM · Jul 10, 2024:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal.
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1811044079758664021

Medvedev: Even if Ukraine surrenders the territories we claim and renounces NATO aspirations in exchange for a peace deal, sooner or later we would still have to put the nail into the coffin of Ukrainian statehood and return the rest of the country’s lands “into the bosom of Russia.”
Cc: Western governments hoping for a diplomatic solution.

Text, Telegram frmr president of Russia Medvedev 10 July 2024 (https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/515) *
------------------------------------------

* Google translation :
Will the godless clown and the former president of the former Ukraine agree to negotiations? It would seem that the question is rhetorical. Almost everyone agrees that the immensely inflated vanity of the sniffer buffoon, the threats from radical Nazis, and the support of the West make this scenario almost unrealistic. I wrote about the fact that the genital pianist is scared to death of rabid Bandera {https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera} followers and swore allegiance to them with blood in my article in Kommersant before the start of the special military operation. Little has changed since then. At the same time, a change of scenery in the United States can add new notes to the determination of the corrupt Ukrainian elite to start negotiations, putting hostilities on pause. The question is, is it beneficial for Russia? I think absolutely not.

What if they take it and accept it? In this case, we need to be as careful as possible. Why? Here's why: 1). The negotiations themselves, until the moment of the clearly expressed intention of the Kyiv regime to capitulate, will only be a respite for the enemy in order to replenish military and human potential. 2). Ukraine's declarations about refusing to join NATO will not lead to anything in themselves (not to mention that the current Bandera criminals are unlikely to ever do them). 3) If 1) and 2) do happen, a new, third bloody Maidan will quickly begin in Kiev, which will sweep away the current junta and bring an even more radical one to power. And then, strange as it may seem, the conditions for negotiations may arise, including the issue of surrender. It will be much more difficult for the Western Alliance to help obvious extremists. In addition, they will have to openly admit that hundreds of billions of their taxpayers' money went to waste. And Washington and its comrades will force the Nazis in Kiev to recognize the results of the war.

The ruling clique, led by a rag clown, is fleeing to the West or will be torn to pieces by the mob. On the ruins of the preserved part of the former Ukraine, a moderate political regime will arise. But this will not be the end of Russia's military operation. Even after signing the papers and accepting defeat, the remaining part of the radicals, after regrouping their forces, will sooner or later return to power, inspired by Russia's Western enemies. And then the time will come to finally crush the reptile. Drive a long steel nail into the coffin lid of the Bandera quasi-state. To destroy the remnants of his bloody heritage and return the remaining lands to the bosom of the Russian land. But the enemies of Russia will not go anywhere after that. They will accumulate strength and wait for a new convenient reason to destroy our country. We must be ready for future battles to defend the Fatherland.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:56 AM · Jul 11, 2024:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford. Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org. Author "Russia in Africa" & "Putin's War on Ukraine"

Russia's unexpectedly rapid economic growth has confounded and infuriated Western policymakers in equal measure
Is Russia's economic growth sustainable or is Russia's war economy a paper tiger?
My thoughts on this critical question /1

Russia's GDP growth shows no signs of slowing
The Russian Finance Ministry in December 2023 predicted 3.6% growth in 2024 just like in 2023
Unemployment reached a post-Soviet era low of 3.2% and aggregate public debt was just 15% in 2023
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals /2

Russia's industrial manufacturing has also yielded impressive growth as a defence-industrial boom is firmly underway
67% increase in ship and aircraft output in 2023 and 43% increase in electronics production
Artillery shell production is north of 2.5 million per year /3

These figures reveal both the strengths of Russia's economy but also the potential unsustainable nature of its growth
Russia's defence budget has risen from $65 billion pre-war to $140 billion today, that is over 7% of Russia's GDP and 35% of total outlays /4

This creates a squeeze on non-military expenditures
Moreover, it has also bred class inequalities: high salaries for defence-industrial base workers means that their income exceeds that of white collar professionals / 5

Economic inequality has risen modestly in Russia according to Gini index figures after years of decline
Regional inequities are even more stark: Amur, Tula and St. Petersburg contributions to the budget far outpaced those of other regions /6

In regions with "volunteer battalions," the poor get poorer and human capital flight worsens
The June 2024 terrorist attacks in Dagestan and potential rising anti-Kremlin/extremist sentiments must be placed into a socioeconomic context /7

While Russia's shadow fleet is less reliant on Western insurers, the sanctioning of individual vessels and ageing nature of its equipment pose risks
Gazprom recording a net loss for the first time since 1999 is another alarm bell
The energy boom is potentially finite /8

Sanctions on uranium and LNG create more headwinds, as does the _targeting of smaller Chinese banks and some UAE banks wavering on Russian business
Secondary sanctions are biting in addition to the human capital flight caused by conscription and IT sector sanctions /9

Political risk in Russia is also rising
Nationalization of assets is increasingly capricious and Western businesses left in Russia have greater asset vulnerability than ever before. The West's redirection of frozen assets fuels unpredictable behaviour from Russia /10

Russia's wartime economy is not going to crater anytime soon and in the short-to-medium term, Russia's economy will defy the odds
But there are storm clouds on the horizon, the economic boom is not a sure thing in a very long war or post-Ukraine conflict freezing scenario /END
----------------------------------

Wanzo Ganzo @wanzoganzo
What about inflation? Last I read, they were spending their reserves. Once that dried up, the printing was going to have to start...

US reportedly foiled Russian plot to kill boss of German arms firm supplying Ukraine
Kate Connolly | 11 Jul 2024

Plan to assassinate Rheinmetall’s Armin Papperger believed to have been at a relatively advanced stage...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/11/us-reportedly-foiled-russi...
--------------------------------------

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 8:52 PM · Jul 11, 2024:

NEW: Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia's wider efforts to destabilize NATO members. (1/3)

2/ European authorities have reported that Russian actors and proxies have conducted sabotage and other hybrid warfare operations aimed at deterring and disrupting Western aid to Ukraine...

3/ ...and NATO and its member states have repeatedly warned about intensifying Russian hybrid operations on NATO member territory.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2024
http://isw.pub/UkrWar071124

This week, Perun offers a rundown of Russian Equipment Losses & Reserves (2024) - The Changing Russian Force in Ukraine.

It’s worrying to see the prime minister cheerleading for war. Will Ukraine turn into Starmer’s Iraq? (Guardian)

Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 British politicians have used it as a stage on which to parade their toughness, most ludicrously Boris Johnson. From the start, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has collaborated. The politicians go over the top in demanding “total victory” against Russia – one they know is implausible. Zelenskiy embraces them warmly and sends them the bill. One condition that Nato has emphasised throughout is that Ukraine’s war be strictly defensive. Nothing should escalate it beyond the country’s borders. Vladimir Putin should not be provoked into a wider conflict. This has meant no Nato weapons should be used against _targets deep inside Russia. This discipline has mercifully held. Starmer apparently disagrees with it. As he went to Washington last week, he might have been ordering the Light Brigade into action against Russia’s guns. In fact, any change in Nato’s weapons deployment requires a collective decision. But Zelenskiy has already welcomed the sign that a Nato member is clearly happy to escalate the war, and is ready to pay billions to do so. Some Nato members, such as France and Germany, have already allowed their non-Nato military aid contributions to be used to strike far into Russia; the US has declined to allow this. This is already Nato’s war. When, two years ago, the initial Russian advance on Kyiv was halted, it would have ended in some messy compromise, like that of Donbas in 2014. It has only continued because Nato, of which Ukraine is not a member, has offered to fund a Zelenskiy victory. So long as he was ready to see tens of thousands of his conscripts die, the west was ready to pay... There is no evidence that Putin was ever seeking a hot war with the west. He made a terrible mistake in marching on Kyiv, one from which he needs somehow to be extricated. But when peace-making is so neglected an art – when it is now derided as appeasement – it is depressing that a British prime minister should be a cheerleader for war. Is Ukraine really to be Starmer’s Iraq?

David Oliver Sacks is a South African entrepreneur, author, and investor in internet technology firms. (Wikipedia)

Joshua Reed Eakle 🗽 @JoshEakle | 10:06 PM · Jul 15, 2024:
Founder @ProjectLiberal. Marketing Director @SFLiberty...Liberal.

"Then he {Biden}provoked the Russians to invade Ukraine with talks of NATO expansion."
David Sacks is repeating Russian propaganda word for word at the RNC convention tonight.
The GOP is the party of Putin.

0:26 (https://x.com/JoshEakle/status/1813032327934844943)
From Acyn

>92 margd: Well, we'll see what everyone thinks about it in 20 years or so.

What Can We Learn from our Forever War in Ukraine?
Remarks to the Massachusetts Peace Action Campaign
Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (USFS, Ret.)
Visiting Scholar, Watson Institute, Brown University
By video, 11 April 2024
https://chasfreeman.net/what-can-we-learn-from-our-forever-war-in-ukraine/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgvM8BJI_Vo

John J Mearsheimer: Orban's Peace Mission & Biden Admintration Signing Ukraine's Death Warrant
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WExvUwqQaj8

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:15 PM · Jul 17, 2024:

Lavrov said Russia is ready to "discuss security problems in Europe."
The main security problem in Europe is Russia itself.

0:33 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1813638678998393062)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:51 AM · Jul 19, 2024:

"Human lives, money, families have been destroyed. They are ‘saving’ us from everything we have gained in life" - Ukrainian Defenders about the city of Chasiv Yar.

Defenders of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade are holding the line under constant precision fire from both artillery and aircraft. They are supported on the flanks by their adjacent units, including the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, which, among others, is saving the lives of our Warriors.

📹: Radio Svoboda
1:05 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1814236675259666845)

Fined for yellow and blue shoes: How Russian laws smother dissent (BBC)

Dissent is not tolerated in Vladimir Putin's Russia. For years Kremlin critics have faced a host of laws which could be used against them, and since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that toolbox of measures has swelled in size. The laws _target basic rights such as freedom of speech and freedom of assembly - even though they are enshrined in Russia's constitution. The repressive nature of the punishments, often disproportionate to the offence, harks back to the methods of the old Soviet Union. The law used most widely against critics of the war in Ukraine is the criminal offence of spreading "deliberately false information" about the Russian army... even though the law mentions "false" information, it has been used against people who highlight crimes that are well-documented but denied by Russia... In an echo of a chilling Soviet practice of confining dissidents to mental hospitals, the court also ordered her to undergo a compulsory psychiatric evaluation... Another recent law penalises "discrediting" the Russian army, and it has been applied to a broad variety of actions interpreted either as support for Ukraine or criticism of the war. These include: Wearing clothes in the blue-and-yellow colours of the Ukrainian flag; Writing anti-war slogans on cakes, as did pastry chef Anastasia Chernysheva; Dyeing one's hair blue-and-yellow or listening to Ukrainian music; Displaying anti-war posters with messages ranging from "No War" to eight asterisks - the number of Russian letters that spell "No War" - or even just a blank sheet of paper. A village priest in Kostroma region was fined for discrediting Russia's armed forces after praying for peace and mentioning the sixth commandment, "Thou shalt not kill". Russia's "foreign agents" law allows restrictions to be imposed on critics without convicting them of any wrongdoing. Individuals or organisations that have criticised or scrutinised government policies are _targeted if they are deemed to have received money from abroad - even from a relative - or merely to be under "foreign influence"... A "foreign agent" label can make life difficult – but being declared "undesirable" amounts to an outright ban... In Russia, anyone who wishes to hold a demonstration needs permission from the authorities. If the rally is critical of the government, that is practically impossible... According to Natalia Prilutskaya of Amnesty International, the Kremlin uses laws to “legitimise repression”, partly by exploiting the vague wording of some Russian laws. "This vagueness allows law enforcement structures to qualify basically any activity as a forbidden activity, or at least it makes it easier"...

Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender
Samuel Ramani (Oxford University Press, 2023), 455 pages, introduction, postscript, notes, index.

Reviewed by Charles Long {CIA}
Studies in Intelligence Vol. 68, No. 2 (June 2024). 3 pages.
https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Review-Russia-in-Africa.pdf

The Wagner Group Lives on in Africa
Marcel Plichta, Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens | July 21, 2024

The name has changed, but its efforts continue—now under closer supervision from the Kremlin.

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-wagner-group-lives-on-in-africa

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:27 AM · Jun 27, 2024:
Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia called on the European Union on Wednesday, 26 June to build a 700-kilometer defense line along their border with Russia and Belarus to protect the EU from military threats and other harmful actions from Moscow - Reuters

The countries said the project aims to protect the bloc of 27 countries and 450 million people. That will require financial support from all EU members.

Some EU diplomats have estimated the cost of building such a defense line along the EU's 700-kilometre border with Russia and Belarus to be around €2.5 billion.

Source: https://reuters.com/world/europe/poland-baltics-call-eu-defence-line-border-with...

Map (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1806227847519814109/photo/1)

Latvia has started installing defensive barriers on its border with Russia.
The so-called 'dragon's teeth' were spotted near the easternmost Latvian town of Zilupe.
0:20 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1815792027965284583)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:40 AM · Jul 28, 2024:
⚡️ Putin stepped over Medvedev in threatening the West:

If the U.S. deploys weapons in Germany, Russia will consider itself free from the moratorium on the deployment of its own medium- and short-range weapons, – Putin.

"Important Russian government and military facilities, our administrative and industrial centers and defense infrastructure will be within range of their weapons, and the flight time to _targets on our territory of such missiles, which in the future may be equipped with nuclear warheads, will be about 10 minutes. This situation is reminiscent of the Cold War," he said.

1:22 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1817495273175687391)

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en |
Medvedev said that the laws of ancient Babylon authorize Russia to start a nuclear war:

"The laws of ancient Babylon and India, as well as the Old Testament and the Quran, give Russia the right to use nuclear weapons against its adversaries in the West," deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia stated.

"The principle of 'an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth' has a historical character. It was outlined already in the Code of Hammurabi, the Laws of Manu, the Laws of the Twelve Tables, and, of course, in the Old Testament and the Quran. So, one can and sometimes must repay evil with evil," Medvedev said in an interview with Argumenty i Fakty newspaper.

"Russian historical school" continues its research work.

Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1813562193901682745/photo/1)

Russian commander killed in sandstorm ambush in Mali (BBC)

A commander in a Russian mercenary group has been killed in Mali following an attack by rebel fighters during a sandstorm, the group said. The military regime in the West African state had turned to the notorious Wagner group in 2021, seeking support in fighting jihadist and separatist forces. On Monday the Russian outfit - which has now morphed into a group named Africa Corps - said it had joined Mali's military in "fierce battles" against separatist rebels and jihadist militants last week. However, the separatists launched a major attack, killing an estimated 20 to 50 mercenaries, sources close to Africa Corps told the BBC...

Hungary opens EU door to spies and ASSASSINS!

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:13 AM · Jul 30, 2024

Hungary's recent decision to ease visa restrictions for Russian citizens is an open door for spies and EU leaders must take urgent countermeasures, the bloc's largest political party said, Financial Times reports.

Manfred Weber, chairman of the European People's Party, said in a letter that the move would allow Russians who have not been vetted to travel freely across much of the EU and raises "serious concerns about national security."

Weber sent a letter to European Council President Charles Michel asking him to raise the issue at the next summit of EU leaders in October.

In July, Hungary published details of a new fast-track visa system allowing citizens of 8 countries, including Russia and Belarus, to enter the country without security checks or other restrictions. Budapest has said many of them will build a nuclear power plant using Russian technology.

However, Weber believes the need for a new migration system in Hungary is "questionable" and warned that it could create serious loopholes for espionage activities and potentially allow large numbers of Russians to enter Hungary with minimal controls, posing a serious risk to national security.

Source: https://ft.com/content/b2a4ebd8-df41-43fe-8d63-602c1d50e899

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:44 AM · Jul 30, 2024 {X}:

It seems that North Korea has supplied Russia with more than just ammunition.
Allegedly, a DPRK-made Bulsae-4 M-2018 NLOS ATGM missile system has been spotted in service with the Russian Armed Forces.
Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1818266290517103030/photo/1)

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:09 AM · Jun 14, 2024

South Korea has detected at least 10,000 shipping containers being sent from North Korea to Russia - Shin Wonsik, Defense Minister of South Korea. These containers could hold almost 5 million artillery shells. The Minister added that North Korea also sent dozens of ballistic missiles to Russia - Bloomberg.

In return, Russia gives North Korea technology to help it deploy an array of spy satellites as well as tanks and aircraft.

Putin is set to visit North Korea soon. It will be his first visit since 2000.

The munitions North Korea sent Russia after Kim Jong Un's visit to Russia last year vastly exceed the amounts of aid Ukraine has received from the US and EU at that point.

Source: https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-14/kim-sent-russia-millions-of-artil...

Map Russian, N Korean ports (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1801527242415030472/photo/1)

Venezuela...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:59 AM · Jul 30, 2024:
Putin congratulated Maduro on his election victory and called him a welcome guest. Putin said that relations between the two countries have the character of a strategic partnership.

{Putin spokesman} Peskov said the opposition in Venezuela should accept defeat. "We believe that the opposition should do this, should congratulate the winner of these elections," Peskov said. He called the protests in the country "attempts to rock the situation" and warned "third countries" against interference.

Venezuela today remains Russia's main ally in the Western Hemisphere, along with Cuba and Nicaragua. They are developing military cooperation (Iran is also involved in this process), building joint businesses, particularly in the energy sector, and helping each other to circumvent sanctions.

Maduro has always claimed full support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.

In May 2024, Maduro said that the U.S. and the European Union did not allow two years ago to conclude a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine and continue the war to justify the profits of arms manufacturers and want to defeat Russia.

Venezuela, as a possible new area of conflict, plays into Russia's hands.

As I've said many times, the fact that Russia has not yet been stopped and punished has direct consequences - an increase in escalation and violence around the world.

International law and international institutions are losing their status. State leaders are beginning to speak the language of force.

The fates of ordinary civilians are being taken hostage.

Now, thousands of opposition supporters have come out to protest in Caracas and other Venezuelan cities. The whole world is watching as things unfold. Putin is watching too, for if Maduro is overthrown, it will be a bad sign for him.
Photo Maduro & Putin (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1818300428750082177/photo/1)

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en · 1h
Russian propagandists support Nicolás Maduro. They consider the election legitimate.

"Washington, Musk, and 'cheap, disgraceful policy' are behind the opposition in Venezuela," Russian propagandists say. They voice what the Kremlin dictates to them.
0:54 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1818290024334414253)

Among the countries that congratulated Nicolás Maduro on his declared re-election, are: Russia, China, Nicaragua, Honduras, Bolivia, Cuba, Syria, Bolivia, Belarus, Qatar, Guinea-Bissau, Sahrawi and Serbia.
Source: Venezuelan Foreign Ministry x.com

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:31 AM · Jul 31, 2024

Some morning news from Russia:

◾️gas exports from Russia continue to be banned; (after continued drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and depots)

◾️ Putin signed a decree on paying 400,000 rub (about $4,600) to those who will sign up for the "special military operation." Local authorities are "recommended" to pay 400,000 rub more from their local budgets.

◾️A deficit of everyday goods was spotted in supermarkets in several Russian regions due to mass deportation of migrants from Russia (40,000 migrants were deported in six months of 2024).

📷: a Russian supermarket
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1818565053261447631/photo/1

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13697931/WSJ-Evan-Gershkovich-Paul-Whel...
BREAKING NEWS: WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich and ex-Marine Paul Whelan are dramatically RELEASED by Russia as part of major prisoner swap with US

The men were let go as part of a major prisoner swap with Moscow, said to involve around 20 to 30 political prisoners.

Multi-country swap ... Russians wanted someone(+) from German custody.
Russians steal time and worry for innocent people in order to get back some of their worst actors. :(

Surprised though they released Americans before the November election. (Why help Dems in any way?)

>107 margd: Do their current calculations see Trump losing?

Heartwarming. So glad Vladimir Kara-Murza* is among the political prisoners released. I thought he would die in prison like Navalny...

ЭХО @echofm_online | 2:04 AM · Aug 2, 2024:
24/7 broadcast of your favorite programs and news in the Echo Online application...

{Google translation from Russian}
“I was sure I would die in prison. I still don't believe it. “I still think that I’m sleeping in my cell in prison in Omsk,” these are the first words of Vladimir Kara-Murza to his family after his release. A call to political prisoners made from the office of the US President is published by the Joe Biden administration.

This conversation took place while the freed men were still on the plane. The video also shows the families of Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, and Alsou Kurmasheva communicating with relatives.

Video (2:14): White House (https://x.com/echofm_online/status/1819252984192127428)
------------------------------------------

* Vladimir Kara-Murza
Russian politician and journalist (born 1981)

Vladimir Vladimirovich Kara-Murza is a Russian-British political activist, journalist, author, filmmaker, and former political prisoner. A protégé of Boris Nemtsov, he is vice-chairman of Open Russia, an NGO founded by Russian businessman and former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, which promotes civil society and democracy in Russia. Wikipedia
______________________________

Michigander Paul Whelan, too.
(2:26) https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1819255443946197410
______________________________

Evan Gershkovich:
https://x.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1819220380814385637/video/1
https://x.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1819236159693725812
https://x.com/Al_Drago/status/1819228748316651994/photo/1
_______________________________

{Alsu Kurmasheva. Kurmasheva, 47, is an editor with Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), a media organization funded by the U.S. government.}
Her husband's statement: https://x.com/PashaButorin/status/1819119874263703866
_______________________________

DW News @dwnews | 2:05 AM · Aug 2, 2024:

A journalist, a former US marine, Russian dissidents, spies and a convicted assassin — 24 detainees were released as part of a complex prisoner swap between Russia, the US and other Western nations.

Here is what we know about who was freed.
2:25 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1819253044141592864)
_______________________________

Shoutout to other countries, esp Germany and Slovenia:

Aaron Rupar @atrupar | 11:55 PM · Aug 1, 2024:
President Biden: "The toughest call on this one is for other countries. Because I asked them to do something that was against their immediate self-interest. Really difficult for them to do. Particularly Germany and Slovenia."
0:43 (https://x.com/atrupar/status/1819220331170513006)

DW News @dwnews | 4:11 AM · Aug 3, 2024

Three Russian opposition activists freed in a prisoner exchange spoke for the first time about their release during a press conference at DW’s office in Bonn:
2:12 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1819647331689812441)

Berliners react to the prisoner swap between Russia, the US and other Western nations. The deal freed 24 people who were held in six countries: 16 detainees from the West and eight who are returning to Russia. Among them — a convicted assassin.
1:37 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1819572850447036898)

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 10:42 PM · Aug 8, 2024

Map (https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1821738763946496256/photo/1)
-------------------------------------

Russia declares an emergency in Kursk, under attack by Ukraine. 12 killed in Russian strike on {Ukrainian shopping} mall
Samya Kullab and Barry Hatton | Aug. 9, 2024

...Sudzha (Russia), about 10 kilometres (six miles) from the border... has an important pipeline transit hub for Russian natural gas.

...The last Russian figure for evacuations in Kursk was 3,000.

Little reliable information about the surprise Ukrainian operation has emerged, and its strategic aims are unclear. Ukrainian officials have refused to comment specifically about the incursion, which is taking place about 500 kilometres (320 miles) southwest of Moscow.

... a top adviser to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday that border region attacks will cause Russia to “start to realize that the war is slowly creeping inside of Russian territory.” ...

Mathieu Boulegue, a defense analyst at the Chatham House think tank in London, said the Ukrainians appear to have a clear goal in mind, even if they’re not saying what it is...

At the same time, the raid spooks the Russian public and delivers a slap in the face to Russian President Vladimir Putin, offering Ukraine “a great PR coup,” he said...

The assault came as the Ukrainian army toils to hold at bay an intense Russian push at places on the front line in eastern Ukraine, especially in the Donetsk region. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear he wants to capture the parts of Donetsk that the Kremlin’s forces don’t already occupy.

Russia declares federal level emergencies when there are more than 500 victims or damage exceeds 500 million rubles (about $6 million).

The Kursk fighting has earned considerable attention in Russian media, at the top of news websites and state television news broadcasts...

Much of the coverage was about the humanitarian situation — children being taken to shelters aboard buses, people in other regions gathering food and diapers and other supplies to be sent to Kursk.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, says Ukrainian forces have pressed on with their “rapid advances” deeper into the Kursk region, reportedly going up to 35 kilometres (20 miles) beyond the border.

“The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk … and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise,” the Washington-based ISW said late Thursday.

A Russian Defense Ministry statement Friday said only that the military “continues to repel the attempted invasion” and is responding with airstrikes, artillery and troops on the ground. It claimed the Ukrainian armed forces have lost 945 soldiers and 102 armored vehicles, including 12 tanks, in the assault. The claim that couldn’t be independently verified.

Ukraine has also kept up its strategy of hitting rear areas with long-range drones, _targeting military sites, oil refineries and other infrastructure.

Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s Lipetsk region, which is about 300 kilometres (180 miles) from the Ukraine border, during Thursday night ... Drones operated by Ukraine’s Security Service hit a military airfield there ...The airfield was a base for fighter jets and helicopters and more than 700 powerful glide bombs in storage,” the source said. Ukraine’s Army General Staff ... saying it was used as a base for multiple Su-34, Su-35 and MiG-31 jets.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that 75 Ukrainian drones were shot down during the night, 19 of them over Lipetsk.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-declares-an-emergency-in-kursk-under-attack-...

Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky_en | 2:26 PM · Aug 9, 2024{X}:
A leader of the Russian opposition, reformer. Ex-political prisoner (2003–2013).
https://x.com/khodorkovsky_en/status/1821976407766876407
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1821976407766876407.html

In case you missed it:
The Kremlin's secret army. How Russia's military intelligence is building a network of criminals and far-right activists to wreak havoc in Europe
🧵Here's how they operate

Previously, the GRU military intelligence service had used its own agents to carry out attacks on foreign soil. But after a series of high-profile failures, such as the botched assassination of Sergey Skripal in Salisbury, they seem to have shifted tactics

The GRU has assembled a team tasked with organizing protests and acts of sabotage overseas, often engaging foreign nationals to do the dirty work on the ground – giving them plausible deniability if the person is caught or fails to complete a task

For example, Dossier found that one GRU agent, Col Denis Smolyaninov, sought left-wing Kremlin sympathizers on social media, and tasked them with organizing small-scale anti-NATO protests all over western Europe

In another case, the GRU enlisted a pro-Putin Moldovan citizen to arrange for five of his compatriots to travel to Paris and spray-paint hundreds of stars of David around the city, evoking the Nazi occupation of France in a bid to incite antisemitism just after the war in Gaza

That wasn’t the only use of graffiti – Col Smolyaninov was also documented as having organized a campaign of anti-Erdogan graffiti in the French capital to sow discord at a time when Turkey was blocking the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO

Sometimes, the GRU engages not activists, but those with criminal pasts. In two cases this year, arms factories producing weapons for Ukraine fell victim to arson – one in Latvia, the other in Germany

German intelligence believes the arms factory in Berlin was _targeted by experienced professionals, recruited by the Kremlin on social media and paid in cryptocurrency

A source with criminal connections told Dossier that, indeed, the GRU has recently been actively working to recruit criminals in countries whose passports allow them to enter Europe, and sending them to Poland and the Baltic States to destabilize the situation

Putin is intent on sowing instability in the West, and these underhanded tactics allow him to do so with minimal risk. It is crucial that western intelligence services make every effort to curb the Kremlin’s schemes before even more damage can be done.

Read Dossier’s report {in Russian} in full here:
https://dossier.center/diversion/

bangkokdave @bangkokdave | 1:04 AM · Aug 10, 2024 {X}:
There are literally stacks of dead Russian soldiers visible in these trucks. That would be quite a sight for an ordinary Russian driver. We’ve seen dead Russians and destroyed Ru equipment many times in Ukraine, but Russians have never seen this on their own soil!

Quote
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 1:08 PM · Aug 9, 2024:
Columnist @TheDailyBeast, creator of the Russian Media Monitor, sanctioned by Russia, member of @TheEmmys.

Meanwhile in Kursk: you won't see this footage on Russian state TV, but it explains why they are panicking.
0:45 (https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1821956737017971053)

Even Russia’s state TV propagandists can’t hide their alarm at Ukraine’s remarkable cross-border incursion into Kursk. They ridiculously claim it was engineered by Americans to help Kamala Harris and undermine Donald Trump.
--------------------------------------

Putin’s Face Betrays Russian ‘Panic’ Over Ukrainian Invasion Shock. 'APOCALYPTIC’
Julia Davis | Aug. 09, 2024

Even Russia’s state TV propagandists can’t hide their alarm at Ukraine’s remarkable cross-border incursion.

...{Putin} complained about the lack of official information and advised nervous viewers to simply turn off their TV sets and uninstall social media apps from their phones—at least until this unsettling episode is over...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-face-betrays-russian-panic-over-ukrainian-i...
______________________________

Ukraine just captured a key piece of pipeline infrastructure in Russia — so why is gas still flowing?
Meduza | August 9, 2024

One day into their unprecedented cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk region, Ukrainian forces captured the “Sudzha” gas metering station — a crucial part of the last remaining Russian pipeline still sending gas to Europe through Ukraine. Though Ukraine’s incursion into Russia is now in its fourth day, gas transit hasn’t stopped. Meduza breaks down what’s happening with the pipeline, how the capture of “Sudzha” has impacted the market, and why both sides in the conflict need to keep the gas flowing.

...The E.U. countries most vulnerable are those still heavily dependent on Russian gas — Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia. However, Citigroup Inc. analysts believe that “both Russia and Ukraine have the incentives to keep natural gas flowing as normal.”...

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/09/ukraine-just-captured-a-key-piece-of-pip...
-----------------------------------

margd: In addition to the large gas pipeline hub, apparently there is also a Chernobyl era large nuclear plant in that part of Russia that Ukraine invaded? A sugar beet processing plant? Could be another nasty winter for Russians w/o heat (and sugar)?

The Kremlin Is Coming for a Dissident Near You
Dan Storyev | Aug. 7, 2024

The recent news that the Kremlin could establish a database of Russians who have left the country suggests Moscow is strengthening the infrastructure for its repressive network beyond the country's borders.

The proposed database would include all Russians who left the country to “participate in extremist organizations” and study аbroad in “unfriendly states” as a part of Russia’s new anti-extremism strategy.

It would be one thing if “extremist organizations” in Russia meant groups like ISIS or the Taliban. But the provocative label is used willy-nilly to eliminate any and all organizations that Kremlin bureaucrats don’t like.

Sometimes the Kremlin even designates non-existent organizations such as the “international LGBT movement” or “anti-Russian separatist movement” just so that it can crack down on them. One could imagine that partaking in queer activism, say, a pride parade, could then be interpreted as being a part of an extremist group...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/08/07/the-kremlin-is-coming-for-a-dissident-...

DW News @dwnews | 2:39 AM · Aug 11, 2024 {X}:

Authorities in Nigeria are cracking down on anti-government protesters who have been seen waving Russian flags.

2:06 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1822523090448036250)

Interesting how Russia still can muster some open analysis in spite of Putin's repression, e.g., arrest of persons holding up blank piece of paper.

Carl Bildt @carlbildt | 4:40 AM · Aug 9, 2024 {X}:
Co-Chair European Council on Foreign Relations @ecfr . World Health Organization Special Envoy for ACT-Accelerator who
@ACTAccelerator . På svenska på @cbildt

The review by @BBCSteveR of the 🇷🇺 media reaction to the 🇺🇦 incursion into the Kursk region is rather revealing,

3:30 (https://x.com/carlbildt/status/1821828946587013454)
From Steve Rosenberg

'Thousands' of troops part of incursion aiming to 'destabilise' Russia, says top Ukrainian official
Newswires | 11/08/2024

Thousands of Ukrainian troops are participating in an incursion into Russia that entered its sixth day on Sunday, a top Ukrainian official told AFP. The official said that Ukrainian troops would respect international humanitarian law while on Russian territory and that there were no plans to annex areas they currently hold...

...a senior Ukrainian security official ... The aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilise the situation in Russia as they are unable to protect their own border ... The attack has "greatly raised our morale, the morale of the Ukrainian army, state and society ... This operation has shown that we can go on the offensive, move forward"...

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240811-thousands-of-troops-part-of-incursio...

Russia issues evacuation orders in Belgorod
DW| 12 Aug. 2024

Russian authorities have ordered fresh evacuations in the region of Belgorod, bordering Ukraine.

The decision follows "activity" by Ukrainian forces in the area, regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said.

Gladkov said evacuations had begun from the Krasnaya Yaruga district due to "enemy activity on the border" that was a "threat."

"I am sure that our servicemen will do everything to cope with the threat that has arisen," he added. "We are starting to move people who live in the Krasnaya Yaruga district to safer places."

Ukrainian soldiers crossed into Russia's Kursk region last week, apparently catching Russian forces off guard. Moscow has responded by sending more troops and equipment and imposing strict security measures in the border regions of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk.

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-kyiv-blames-moscow-for-zaporizhzhia-fire/l...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:52 AM · Aug 12, 2024:

Russian Telegram channels showed new footage of the fire at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

What is known so far about the incident at the nuclear power plant:

◾️ Last night, the Nikopol regional military administration reported that the occupiers set fire to a huge number of car tires near the cooling tower at ZNPP, which is located about a kilometer from the plant's power units.

◾️ The occupiers traditionally blamed Ukraine for everything and said that the plant was allegedly attacked by a Ukrainian drone.

◾️ Energoatom emphasized that the cause of the fire at the cooling tower was deliberate arson or negligence of the occupiers.

◾️ The IAEA said it "witnessed heavy dark smoke coming from the northern zone of the plant after multiple explosions."

◾️ The fire on the territory of Zaporizhzhia NPP has now stopped, according to the Dnipropetrovs'k regional military administration.

◾️ Radiation levels in Nikopol region are within normal limits.
0:09 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1822888992502624283)

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:11 PM · Aug 11, 2024:

President Zelenskyy showed footage of something burning at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

0:20 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1822712571423859016)
Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1822702180781965638/photo/1)

Putin could be forced into a ‘land swap’ after Ukraine takes Russian territory | Samuel Ramani (8:15)
Times Radio | Aug 12, 2024

“They may decide, we’ll cut our loses. We’ll leave Kharkiv if Ukraine returns to the border.”

Ukraine’s strike deep into Russian territory may force Putin to fall back from Kharkiv, says Samuel Ramani, associate fellow at RUSI and author of Putin's War in Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoS_uQ0oMrs
--------------------------------------

Russia’s Putin says Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk is an attempt to stop Moscow’s eastern offensive

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that the Ukrainian army’s incursion into the Kursk region, which has caused more than 100,000 civilians to flee and embarrassed the Kremlin, is an attempt by Kyiv to stop Moscow’s offensive in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region and gain leverage in possible future peace talks...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-incursion-kursk-afa42b9613323901be...
--------------------------------------

Russia Evacuates 180,000 as Ukraine Is Said to Take 28 Towns
Putin demands Russian army ‘drive out’ Ukrainian incursion
Fighting continues for sixth day in Russia’s Kursk region
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/russia-evacuates-180-000-as-u...
--------------------------------------

Ukrainian Troops Are Digging Trenches In Russia’s Kursk Oblast. It’s A Sign They Plan To Stay.

Every day the Russians don’t counterattack is a day the Ukrainians dig in deeper.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-tr...
-----------------------------------------

Russia orders tens of thousands of people to evacuate as Ukraine’s incursion into its territory enters its seventh day

...An influential Russian military blog Rybar said on Monday that “apparently the (Armed Forces of Ukraine) is not shying away from plans to stretch our defensive formations, create the maximum number of points of tension, and attempt to break through in the east to cut Belgorod off from the north.”

...Russian authorities imposed a sweeping counter-terror operation in three border regions – Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk – but stopped short of declaring the incursion an act of war.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitoring group, said this was likely an attempt by the Kremlin to deliberately downplay the assault to prevent domestic panic or backlash over the fact that Russia was unable to defend its own borders.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin has refrained from officially declaring a state of war, has repeatedly demonstrated his unwillingness to transfer Russian society fully to a war-time footing, and has forgone declaring general mobilization as part of wider efforts to prevent domestic discontent that could threaten the stability of (his) regime,” the ISW said in its update.

The counterterrorist regime officially gives Russian authorities wider powers, including the ability to monitor telephone conversations and restrict communications and limiting the movement of people. ...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/europe/russia-ukraine-incursion-belgorod-intl/ind...

>120 margd: Sorry, but this is going to go nowhere long-term, and it's wasting a lot of the best troops Ukraine has left.

>121 davidgn: That's a perspective, sure. But you could also say that hunkering down and trying to hold off the invading forces is not going anywhere long-term, and is wasting Ukrainian troops.

I don't think Ukraine actually wants a long-term strategy here, at least not a strategy for a long-term military engagement. What they want is to end the war without losing significant territory. Ideally, they'd like to return to the pre-2014 borders, it's not clear whether they'd accept a settlement that ceded Crimea but that would certainly be a tough pill to swallow, not just for Ukraine but also for Europe as a whole.

So the obvious analysis seems like the right one: Ukraine is not looking to gain Russian territory, they want peace talks and they want to come out of those peace talks with something like the borders they had before Russia invaded Crimea, or failing that, before the start of the current "special operation". And if you look at what's happening from that viewpoint, it looks like what they've done serves their interests pretty well. They've done two important things here. First, and obviously, they've taken territory that they can bargain with. Okay, that's necessary. But more important, unless Putin can roll this back in very short order they've utterly demolished the basis for his internal propaganda. Until this week, he had a war that was being fought on someone else's territory, by someone else's children. (Bear in mind that the Russian Federation consists of Russia plus its remaining colonies, and the vast majority of the troops are coming from the central Asian territories of the Federation). Since Russian popular opinion is really the only popular opinion that he has to worry about - he can ignore Kazakhstan, but he can't ignore Petersburg - this was working for him. Now, Russian popular opinion has some new facts to digest, and if they're still true in a week then Putin is in a much harder position.

The Ukrainian gamble is that putting Putin in this position will bring him to the table. I'm not sure if it will, but it certainly seems more likely to do so than maintaining the stalemate.

>122 kiparsky: Long shot, but Ukraine's longterm peace prospects would be enhanced if a weakened Putin regime was replaced by a government truly interested in the Russian people's wellbeing. (I think Putin will be deposed in time, but what comes after is the question...)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:41 PM · Aug 15, 2024:

Russian sources say that criminal cases are being prepared for Russian generals due to failure of the Kursk region's defense.

The "cleansing" of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which started after the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu, may continue with a new series of arrests of high-ranking law enforcers who failed in the defense of the Kursk region.
------------------------------------------

It is reported that Gerasimov, head of the General Staff, has fallen into Putin's disfavor.

Russian intelligence knew about the preparations for operation in Kursk region but Russian General Staff ignored those reports and hid information from Putin. The Kremlin is now very unhappy with Gerasimov - Bloomberg, citing a source close to Kremlin...

Russia Declares Border Area Emergency as Ukraine Troops Strike
Bloomberg News | August 8, 2024
Military ignored warning signs of attack, person familiar said
Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region extends into third day..
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-08/russia-calls-kursk-emergency-...

>123 margd: I agree that that's a long shot, but since his main selling point is that he's a "strong leader", the Ukrainian incursion certainly moves the needle on that point. I don't think we're even measurably closer to an end to the Putin regime as a result of the last week's news, but I can imagine that for Russians, that end is now in the category of "thinkable". And if that's actually the case, then that would be a huge shift.

A lot will depend on the military response - particularly, I expect, how long it is before Putin is able to reallocate his resources to address this, which may take some time. And of course if Putin does waver then a lot will depend on who steps into the breach. I like to hope that there's a community with an appetite for the sort of change you're describing, but there will be those who try to replicate Putin's regime. We'll see, I suppose.

>122 kiparsky:
Symposium: What does Ukraine's incursion into Russia really mean?
Ten experts gauge the short and long term effects of Kyiv’s bold invasion on the war
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-kursk-incursion/

I'd highlight Jasen Castillo, John Mearsheimer, and Sumantra Maitra.

Ukraine Incursion in Kursk: The Wheels are Coming Off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aFQSu9QXAw
Daniel L. Davis

>126 davidgn: I love this:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has denounced the incursion as a “large-scale provocation.”

Chutzpah knows no bounds...

On the question of the outcome, I think there's a good reason why every commentator refers to this as a "gamble". It might end badly for Ukraine, certainly. But the question is, what's the alternative. I think we've seen what Ukraine is getting from fighting a defensive war on their territory, and that's basically a long slow bleed of men, material, and territory, as well as morale, both of civilians and of Ukrainian troops. That doesn't seem sustainable, and I don't see any way to change that dynamic without taking some gambles.

I would note that all of the commentators are largely approaching this from the military perspective, with token nods to global political effects, and I think that their comments from those perspectives are pretty sane.But what they all leave out is the local effect within the Russian Federation and within Russia itself. I don't have any knowledge of current views in the Russian colonies, but I will point out that most of the captured Russian troops that I've seen pictured look more Central Asian than ethnically Russian, so I would imagine that many people in places like Kazakhstan have relatives captured or killed in this fight, and it's not clear what they have to gain from any of this. If the Ukrainian incursion forces more conscription of ethnic Russians, then we're in dangerous territory for Putin, since his heartland will now start to feel what his colonies have been feeling for a while. While Russia is no kind of democracy, I do believe that if Putin loses his ethnic Russian base, he's going to have a hard time holding power, and that if that happens, then anyone who replaces him will understand that ending the war will be a popular move.

Basically, I still think that Ukraine is not going to be able to win this militarily, but wars are not always won militarily. They are often lost politically, when one side loses the political capacity to continue fighting. Vietnam ended this way, as did the war on Afghanistan, and the Palestinians are trying to force this sort of political loss on Israel right now. It seems to me that Ukraine has a fighting chance of a political victory, and that this gamble is a better bet for that outcome than the hunker-down-and-wait strategy.

But then, I've never been a military man and I'm not a military historian, so this is all just what I'm thinking after reading the news. Your mileage may vary.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:10 AM · Aug 20, 2024 {X}:

(Russia's foreign minister} Lavrov said that there could be no negotiations with Kyiv after Ukraine's entry into Russia's Kursk region.

This just confirms further that Russia's goal is Ukrainian capitulation.

1:46 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1825837858675884056)

DW News: Germany's government is planning to stop funding military aid for Ukraine from the federal budget. Instead, it hopes to tap into a $50 billion international loan package funded by interest on profits from frozen Russian assets.

Germany wants to limit aid to Ukraine
Christoph Hasselbach | 8/19/2024
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-wants-to-limit-aid-to-ukraine/a-69984998

Anne Applebaum {The Atlantic} @anneapplebaum | 5:14 AM · Aug 20, 2024 {X}:

Ukraine now begins its third week occupying territory inside Russia
Looks like Putin cares more about gaining a handful of kilometers in Donetsk than protecting hundreds of thousands of Russians
------------------------------------

Giorgi Revishvili @revishvilig | 11:28 AM · Aug 19, 2024 {X}:
Political Analyst • Former Senior Advisor to @NSCofGeorgia • Focused on Russian Security and Foreign Policy
https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1825555367595819402

Interesting new developments about Ukraine's Kursk offensive:
- Ukraine began expanding flanks in southern bank of the Seim river. Ukrainian Armed Forces knocked out the last remaining bridge over the river in Karyzh, almost cutting off the Glushkovsky district. 1/10 ⬇️
Map (https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1825555367595819402/photo/1)

- Russian troops managed to establish one pontoon crossing in Glushkovo. However, the destruction of bridges will substantially impede supplies to Russian forces in the area. 2/10

- In the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces expanded west of Sudzha, seizing three villages: Snagosti and Apanasovka in the Korenevsky District and Otruby in Glushkovksy district. 3/10

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have also advanced from the western side of the Glushkovsky district. AFU have already secured control of 11 square kilometers. 4/10

Ukrainian forces have expanded the combat zone from the western border towards Tetkino and Byrdyn too, pushing up to 3.5 kilometers into Russian territory. 5/10
Map (https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1825555378106740790/photo/1)

According to DeepState, the combat zone in Kursk Oblast is about 1,200 square kilometers, half of which is under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. 6/10

Yesterday, President Zelenskyy stated some of the objectives of Ukraine's Kursk offensive: 1. creation of the buffer zone 2. stronger and better prepared for this fall 3. further destruction of Russian war-making capacity. 7/10

Ukraine likely aims to maintain control over some of the territory, particularly the southern flank of the Seim River in Kursk Oblast.
The Kursk offensive is somewhat of a two-level game; events in Kursk could influence what happens in Ukraine's Pokrovsk, and vice versa. 8/10

The Russian army has accelerated its offensive on Pokrovsk following the Ukrainian Armed Forces' incursion into the Kursk Oblast. 9/10
Bar graph in Russian (https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1825555388131115151/photo/1)

Over the past week, Russian troops have captured the largest amount of territory in Ukraine since the end of May, with most gains concentrated in a single section of the front - the Pokrovsk area in the Donetsk Oblast. However, the Russian advance has slowed in other areas. 10/10

Sources used: Agentstvo, DeepState.

UPDATE:
Russian forces managed to create second pontoon crossing in Kursk Oblast, east of Zvannoe. (51°22'33.8"N 34°36'46.1"E). Russia built first pontoon crossing in Glushkovo 3 days ago (second satellige image, 51°21'03.9"N 34°40'36.1"E) Source: RFE/RL
Aerial photos
https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1825568378192638250/photo/1
https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1825568378192638250/photo/2

Please don’t forget to support and subscribe to my Substack - Russia Analyzed - for the latest insights and analysis on Russian foreign and security policy and the war against Ukraine. http://cutt.ly/pw9h2qju
UPDATE:

Ukraine has likely destroyed a newly built Russian pontoon crossing east of Zvannoe in Kursk Oblast.
Source: RFE/RL
(0:04) https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1825749007743729685

Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 5:06 AM · Aug 20, 2024 {X}:
Born in Ukraine. American. Racecar Driver (Ret.)

Does your blood boil when you hear Germans refusing to accept Ukraine into NATO because part of its territory is occupied by Russia despite the fact that a Germany half-occupied by Russia was accepted into NATO just 10 years after it massacred tens of millions of people in WW2?

1:26 (https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1825821776485691807)

Because Russia uses excuse of protecting Russian minorities to invade Ukraine, Moldova, etc.?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:26 AM · Aug 22, 2024 {X}:
Finnish authorities are going to ban Russians from buying real estate in the country — Iltalehti

The Ministry of Defense of Finland has prepared a bill to prohibit Russians to conclude real estate transactions in the country. The head of the department Antti Häkkänen told the publication Iltalehti about it, noting that the document will be submitted for consideration by the government within two weeks.

According to him, the draft bill proposes to allow the purchase of real estate only Russian citizens with a permanent residence permit in Finland. The ban will also not apply to holders of dual - Finnish and Russian - citizenship.

“We want to prevent an increase in the number of real estate properties in Finland owned by Russians,” the minister said.

He added that the ban could be lifted if Russia stops fighting Ukraine and does not unleash new military conflicts.

In May, it was reported that the Finnish Cabinet started working on changing the law on real estate confiscation so that it would be possible to seize apartments from Russians who do not pay dues. As the Yle newspaper noted, in Southeastern and Eastern Finland, about 1,000 housing associations were experiencing serious financial problems due to owners from Russia, and one Finnish housing company even went bankrupt.

https://iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/e285e428-dfa5-4983-aa3b-8c51c18ba318

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:53 AM · Aug 22, 2024 {X}:

❗️A letter addressed to President Biden appeared, signed by military and political leaders. Its authors urge the US President to provide Ukraine with the means to achieve "victory of Ukraine, total defeat of the Russian invasion, and restoration of Ukraine's territory and people." I will link the full letter below and here are several quotes from it.

🔷"To ensure Ukraine’s victory, Kyiv and its partners must agree on a common definition of victory, and develop a cohesive strategy to make that victory a reality."

🔶"All restrictions must be lifted on Kyiv’s ability to strike legitimate military _targets
in Russia. Victory means taking out the archer, not defending indefinitely against his arrows."

🔷"Ukraine must be able to strike all legitimate military _targets in Russia with U.S.-supplied weapons to adequately defend itself."

Thank you, @PMBreedlove, @IanBrzezinski, @general_ben, @Malinowski, @ARVershbow, @MarieYovanovit1* for being true friends of Ukraine!

The {4p} letter can be found here: https://politico.com/f/?id=00000191-5c8e-d687-a3db-fc9f4a230000&fbclid=IwY2x...
--------------------------------------

*Gen. Philip Breedlove (ret.)
17th Supreme Allied Commander Europe

Ian Brzezinski
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO Policy

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges (ret.)
Former Commanding General, U.S. Army Europe

The Hon. Tom Malinowski
Former Representative for New Jersey’s 7th District, U.S. House of Representatives; former
Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor

Amb. Alexander Vershbow
Former NATO Deputy Secretary General; former Assistant Secretary of Defense; former U.S.
Ambassador to Russia

Amb. Marie Yovanovitch
Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine

Opinion: Another Russian mercenary leader has turned against Putin

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/opinion-another-russian-mercenary-leader-ha...

A few days ago, Georgy Zakrevsky, another head of a private military company, effectively called on Russians to get rid of the “Great” Putin (his modifier, not mine). When the guys with the guns start making fun of your greatness, it may be time to read the writing on the wall.
...
Zakrevsky’s appeal, which has supposedly been distributed widely among Russia’s military and civilian elites, can’t be dismissed as the unrepresentative grumbling of a disgruntled mercenary. Zakrevsky, like Prigozhin before him, represents Russia’s military class. If he’s unhappy and willing to risk his career — and possibly his life — by going public with his call for Putin’s removal, there must be many others who share his discontent. That may be why he hasn’t been arrested or killed — yet.

Were Zakrevsky to somehow come to power, his political leanings would likely be identical to Putin’s: imperialism, fascism and war and genocide in Ukraine. But Zakrevsky is no Putin, and whatever the former’s political aspirations, he could never have the power and authority of Putin.

Zakrevsky is important, not because he portends a nicer, gentler Russia, but because he portends chaos among Russia’s ruling elites. And chaos means less interest by Moscow in Ukraine and other neighboring states, growing instability at home and the possibility — however small — of a turn away from fascism.

That may not sound like much, but, given the horror of Putin’s regime, it would be remarkable.

Anastasiya1451 @Anastasiya1451A | 9:32 AM · Aug 24, 2024 {X}:
Sophist by training, amateur linguist by chance, humanist by choice.

Elon Musk was forced to reveal who financed his purchase of Twitter.
Amongst owners of Twitter there are two Russian oligarchs who are close to Putin and we're sanctioned over the Russian invasion of Ukraine: Petr Aven and Vadim Moshkovich.

{Paywall}
Elon Musk was just forced to reveal who really owns X. Here’s the list
Eleanor Pringle | August 22, 2024
https://fortune.com/2024/08/22/elon-musk-x-twitter-owner-list/
____________________________

Don't see Aven and Moshkovich listed by name -- probably in investment group(s):

Full List of Investors in Elon Musk's X Revealed in Court Filing
Newsweek | Aug 22, 2024

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:21 AM · Aug 30, 2024 {X}:

Putin will visit Mongolia next week. There he may be arrested on a warrant from the International Criminal Court.

In December 2023, a Mongolian judge became an ICC judge for the first time, Charter 97 says. President of Mongolia boasted at the time that it was "a sign of the country's growing and strengthening reputation in the international arena and the confidence of international organizations in Mongolia."

◾️ This will be the first visit by a Russian dictator to a country that has ratified the Rome Statute.

If Putin is going there, it means he has received guarantees that he will not be arrested. One of the purposes of the visit will be to show the world that Putin is above the system of international law.

A precedent will be set when a country that is a signatory to the Rome Statute of the ICC does not implement an arrest warrant that is issued by the ICC. This is an example to other countries - you can act like Mongolia.

◾️ Another purpose of the visit is to participate in celebrations marking the 85th anniversary of the joint victory of Soviet and Mongolian troops over Japanese forces on the Khalkhin-Gol River. Putin wants to show off to China and demonstrate to Japan that Russia can cause a lot of problems.

◾️ For Russia, Mongolia is an important country in terms of natural resources. Mongolia can help Russia with bypassing sanctions and with trade with China...
------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:50 AM · Mar 17, 2023 {X}:

Today, Pre-Trial Chamber II of International Criminal Court issued warrants of arrest for Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova for war crime of unlawful deportation and transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of 🇺🇦 to Russian Federation.

https://icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-agai...

1:45 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1636756892260106240)

Attaboy, Putin... Sweden and Finland, now Switzerland as well as Ukraine discuss joining NATO.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:12 AM · Aug 31, 2024

After 500 years of non-alliance, a Swiss report by a group of experts recommends closer cooperation with the EU and NATO and rethinking neutrality - Politico

It recommends to the government that the country, which has been neutral since 1515, work on a "common defense capability" with the EU and NATO.

"Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, neutrality has once again become the subject of political debate, both at home and abroad. Pressure on Switzerland to clarify its position is growing," reads the report, calling for a "revision" of its neutrality policy.

Released on the Swiss Federal Council website, it urges deeper ties with the military alliance and the EU on joint training, defense against ballistic missiles, and bilateral and multilateral exercises.

Source: https://politico.eu/article/switzerland-military-neutrality-defense-arms-sales-w...

Russian fighters to leave Burkina Faso for Ukraine (BBC)

Russia is withdrawing 100 of its paramilitary officers from Burkina Faso to help in the war in Ukraine. They are part of about 300 soldiers from the Bear Brigade - a Russian private military company - who arrived in the West African nation in May to support the country's military junta. On its Telegram channel, the group said its forces would return home to support Russia’s defence against Ukraine’s recent offensive in the Kursk region...

‘Street Thug’ Putin and His Allies Considering Invasion of 3 More Countries
Anna Nemtsova | August 30, 2024

...“Russia is talking about attacking the Baltic states just because they can,” former Russian Parliament member Gennady Gudkov told The Daily Beast. “They don’t see any of the red lines, so they will continue the cyber-attacks on the Baltic states this year, send drones to Romania, or more missiles to fly over Poland.”

“To understand Russia you have to accept the fact that Putin’s mentality is that of a street thug, he is afraid of only one thing, of dying,” Gudkov adds. “When Putin looks at NATO, he does not see power. He sees that after two and a half years of war one NATO state leader, Viktor Orbán, comes to see him in the Kremlin and the leader of another NATO state, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, refuses even to attend the NATO summit.”

And what seemed like a crazy plan when it was first reported on Russian TV in January 2022, to use the Swedish island of Gotland as a staging post for Russian attacks on the Baltic states, is now seen as a real threat. Since the invasion of Ukraine, both Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. Gotland is now a strategically vital NATO asset in the middle of what some experts now jokingly call ‘NATO’s lake.’

NATO’s northern members are right to be alarmed. The first part of Russia’s theoretical scenario, cyber-attacks on the Baltic states, has been implemented: Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have all reported such attacks. The next step in the alleged scenario for the attack is meant to be an attempt by Russia to stir unrest among the significant Russian-speaking, pro-Moscow populations in Latvia and Lithuania, starting this month. “There are quite a few so-called ‘vatniki’ in Lithuania, who had worked for Soviet factories, and although there is no Russian television here they watch Russian propaganda on Youtube and on Telegram social media,” Pavel Marinich, the founder of Vilnius-based Malanka Media, told The Daily Beast...

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/street-thug-putin-allies-considering-115757925.html

Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv | 3:54 PM · Sep 1, 2024 {X}:

Russians weren't satisfied by beheading a 14 year old girl yesterday or by the 44 victims today in Kharkiv, now they've just sent ballistic missiles into an orphanage in Sumy.

From Mila.Alien 🇺🇦
1:10 (https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1830333360276754894)
______________________________

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:24 AM · Sep 2, 2024 {X}:

This morning's massive Russian missile strike in Kyiv severely damaged the building of the Islamic Cultural Center of the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as well as a mosque.

"Fortunately, there are no casualties. This is another evidence that Russia is a country of absolute evil," Refat Chubarov, head of the Majlis of the Crimean Tatar people...

Photos
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1830507053279789438/photo/1
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1830507053279789438/photo/2
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1830507053279789438/photo/3

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:51 AM · Sep 2, 2024:

⚡️Iran will provide Russia with ballistic missiles "imminently" - Bloomberg.
Some sources told Bloomberg it could even happen within days.

The axis of evil is getting more powerful and united.

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-02/ukraine-allies-expect-iran-to-shi...

Photo Iranian ballistic missile test (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1830634551397539904/photo/1)

U.S. Department of Justice @TheJusticeDept | 2:13 PM · Sep 4, 2024 {X}:

Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company that Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests

🔗: https://justice.gov/opa/pr/two-rt-employees-indicted-covertly-funding-and-direct...
Press Release. Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company that Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests. September 4, 2024
_____________________________________
Journalists react on Twitter:

steven monacelli @stevanzetti · 16h
You're telling me that Tenet Media — the Blaze Media / TPUSA adjacent outlet that features Tim Pool, Benny Johnson, and Texas' own Taylor Hansen — has been secretly funded and directed by Russia Today employees?

Aric Toler @AricToler | 3:11 PM · Sep 4, 2024:
@nytimes Visual Investigations, Previously @bellingcat

A new DoJ indictment alleges that RT employees "covertly fund{ed} and direct{ed}" a US company with $10m in order to push pro-Russia content. The company is based in Tennessee.

There is one media company based in Tennessee with the same phrase listed in the indictment...
Phrase (https://x.com/AricToler/status/1831409715349455335/photo/1)
"About" (https://x.com/AricToler/status/1831409715349455335/photo/2)
"Meet the Talent" (https://x.com/AricToler/status/1831409715349455335/photo/3)
"Company Information" (https://x.com/AricToler/status/1831409715349455335/photo/4)
___________________________________

Molly Jong-Fast @MollyJongFast | 7:25 AM · Sep 5, 2024 {X}
@vanityfair special correspondent & MSNBC

The pinned tweet {Walz family supports Trump} of one of the people {Benny Johnson?} who got money from Russia to make videos
Tweet context (https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1831654928948863044/photo/1)
Tweet (https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1831654928948863044/photo/2)
Secret Russian campaign (https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1831654928948863044/photo/3)
___________________________________

Molly Jong-Fast @MollyJongFast | 7:27 AM · Sep 5, 2024:

Tim Pool was a staunch RFK jr supporter, it’s alleged that Tim pool took money from Russia
TFK thank to Pool (https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1831655291911311785/photo/1)
Will Sommer on indictment (https://x.com/MollyJongFast/status/1831655291911311785/photo/3)

>144 margd: Huh. Whoda thunk.

Former 2016 Trump campaign adviser is charged over working for sanctioned Russian TV

https://apnews.com/article/trump-simes-russia-election-fbi-f0b0fe681c821f735c4e9...

Indictments announced Thursday by the Department of Justice allege that Dimitri Simes and his wife received over $1 million dollars and a personal car and driver in exchange for work they did for Russia’s Channel One since June 2022. The network was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2022 over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

...Russia Aids Burkina Faso’s Nuclear Energy Push
Liam Karr and Avery Borens |5 Sept. 2024

Burkina Faso is advancing its nuclear energy goals with Russian support. Officials from the Russian state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom conducted a four-day visit to Ouagadougou in August 2024 to create a preconstruction checklist of prerequisites for Burkina Faso’s planned nuclear power plant. The Burkinabe government also established an atomic energy agency, the Burkina Atomic Energy Agency (BAAE), on August 21. The BAAE aims to ensure Burkina Faso’s energy independence and industrialization and facilitate access to electricity.

... Burkina Faso has lacked the domestic capacity to meet its electricity demands and sought to establish nuclear energy capabilities to address its shortfalls since 2021. Burkina Faso produces roughly 782 million kilowatts of electricity a year, which is less than half its electricity consumption, roughly 2.1 billion kilowatts a year. This gap has made Burkina Faso reliant on importing electricity largely from Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo. The junta’s relationship with all three countries has deteriorated since it took power due to the regional West African economic and political bloc—the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)—levying sanctions that contributed to Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger leaving ECOWAS. The junta has an especially contentious relationship with Côte d’Ivoire. These political dynamics have likely created increased urgency for Burkina Faso to achieve energy independence. Burkina Faso has also lacked the electricity transmission infrastructure and regulatory framework required for a power plant, which Rosatom is helping address.

Russia is using nuclear energy diplomacy in Burkina Faso and across Africa to spread its influence and create economic opportunities for itself. Russia has positioned itself as a global leader in the nuclear energy market, including in Africa. This has led to numerous deals on peaceful nuclear technological cooperation and nuclear power plant construction. These deals create multiple revenue and export market opportunities via Russia exporting nuclear energy technology, constructing power plants, and Russia’s large stake in the uranium market that power plants need to operate. These opportunities make the Russian economy more resilient in the face of Western economic retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia also uses these projects to expand its influence by making countries reliant on Russian financing and tech. Russia finances a significant portion of these projects to ensure that it can engage with all potential partners. The expertise and time required to build a nuclear power plant also makes countries dependent upon Russia for the project and solidifies long-term Russian engagement.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-september-5-2024-egypt-ethi...

>147 margd: "kilowatts of electricity a year" doesn't make much sense. But that's what the linked article says too. Oh, well.

>148 bnielsen: I thought renewable energy would most interest African nations, solar, especially, being decentralized and needing less infrastructure. Maybe wouldbe authoritarians ("junta") WANT centralized huge energy projects that they can control?
_________________________________
>145 2wonderY:

David Gilbert {WIRED} @daithaigilbert | 7:22 AM · Sep 6, 2024:

The Tim Pool/Tenet Media story is obviously fascinating.
But...
An FBI affidavit unsealed this week says the Russians are maintaining an active list of 2,800 influencers, 600 of whom are in the US
The FBI has not released the list
Who else is on it?

DOJ: Russia Aimed Propaganda at Gamers, Minorities to Swing 2024 Election
David Gilbert | Sep 5, 2024

Newly unsealed court documents reveal in unprecedented detail a campaign called the Good Old USA Project, which Russian authorities believed could impact the US election...

{Text excerpt
https://x.com/daithaigilbert/status/1832016542629830922/photo/1}

...And the goal of the campaign, from the beginning, was crystal clear: “To secure victory for {Donald Trump},” {Ilya} Gambashidze wrote in the Good Old USA Project planning document.

https://wired.com/story/project-good-old-usa-russia-2024-election/

Ukrainian drones strike Russian ammo depot in Voronezh Oblast, allegedly destroying North Korean missiles.
Yevheniia Martyniuk | 07/09/2024

Kyiv: “We’ve hit N. Korean missile depot in Russia, Iranian missiles next”

... Multiple Ukrainian media sources, citing intelligence, attribute the operation to the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). The depot, allegedly used for transferring equipment to Ukraine, is now engulfed in flames with ongoing ammunition detonations. Local authorities have declared a state of emergency and begun evacuations...

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/09/07/kyiv-weve-hit-n-korean-missile-depot-in-r...
---------------------------------------

Video
https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1832316370349912187

Map distance from Ukraine
https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1832318710473748548/photo/1

NASA Fire Info for Resource Mgt Sytem (aerial)
https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1832316370349912187/photo/1
https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1832316370349912187/photo/2

Starmer tells Putin he started Ukraine war and can end it any time (Guardian)

Keir Starmer has told Vladimir Putin that he started the war in Ukraine and could end it at any time after the Russian leader warned that any use of long-range British missiles into Russian territory would put Nato at war with his country... Responding directly to threats earlier by the Russian president, Starmer told reporters: “Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away. Ukraine has the right to self-defence”...

Some European countries have paid more than US, per capita...
JD Vance, one heartbeat away from the US presidency -- and a likely compromised heartbeat at that -- apparently willing to give away someone else's country.

Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump | 10:36 AM · Sep 12, 2024 {X}:

JD Vance says that Trump’s “peace plan” for Ukraine is to let Russia keep all the Ukrainian territory they currently occupy (nearly 20% of Ukraine) and give Russia a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO and any other “allies institution” {EU?}

A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin.

0:46 (https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1834239738376503423 )

Locked but Loaded: Firearms Possession Dynamics in Ukraine (Small Arms Survey)

Although overall crime victimization in Ukraine has remained relatively stable following Russia’s full-scale invasion, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used in crime. In late 2023, 11 per cent of surveyed victims of crime said a firearm was used in the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier. Locked but Loaded: Firearms Possession Dynamics in Ukraine—second of the Survey’s Situation Updates series on firearms possession and proliferation in Ukraine—builds on a series of general population surveys carried out between 2011 and December 2023. This Situation Update focuses on the evolving dynamics of firearms possession in Ukraine. It is is divided into two main sections: contextual background on perceptions of insecurity, the role of weapons, and the specific situation of combatants and veterans; and an examination of civilian firearms possession, including public perceptions of these weapons, civilians’ access to them, and public awareness and use of the new Unified Register of Weapons.